Try the model

Transfer portal rankings

Portal rankings usually count recruiting stars. These count production: the wins above replacement each transfer put up the season before he moved, summed for every FBS team's arrivals and departures, and what each one has done since.

Moves made for the 2024 season, valued by the 2023 season; 2024 WAR for the full season beside it.

Biggest moves

The 25 transfers with the most WAR in 2023, at their old school, and their WAR in 2024 after the move. A dash means no FBS snaps that season.

#Player20232024
1Diego PaviaQB · 3★New Mexico State → Vanderbilt2.602.50
2Jordan McCloudQB · 3★James Madison → Texas State2.542.18
3Dequan FinnQB · 4★Toledo → Baylor2.420.08
4Cam WardQB · 4★Washington State → Miami2.342.02
5Dillon GabrielQB · 4★Oklahoma → Oregon2.292.32
6Will HowardQB · 4★Kansas State → Ohio State1.972.36
7Kurtis RourkeQB · 4★Ohio → Indiana1.961.57
8KJ JeffersonQB · 3★Arkansas → UCF1.870.34
9E.J. WarnerQB · 3★Temple → Rice1.771.45
10Jayden MaiavaQB · 4★UNLV → USC1.640.43
11TJ FinleyQB · 3★Texas State → Western Kentucky1.580.02
12Kyle McCordQB · 4★Ohio State → Syracuse1.523.58
13Chandler RogersQB · 3★North Texas → California1.45−0.01
14Cam FancherQB · 3★Marshall → Florida Atlantic1.430.86
15Jase BauerQB · 3★Central Michigan → Sam Houston1.400.29
16Grayson McCallQB · 4★Coastal Carolina → NC State1.350.16
17DJ UiagaleleiQB · 4★Oregon State → Florida State1.321.01
18Tyler Van DykeQB · 4★Miami → Wisconsin1.160.13
19Taylen GreenQB · 3★Boise State → Arkansas1.142.31
20Austin SmithQB · 2★Eastern Michigan → Austin Peay1.06-
21Athan KaliakmanisQB · 3★Minnesota → Rutgers1.011.73
22Blake ShapenQB · 3★Baylor → Mississippi State0.980.38
23Cole SnyderQB · 3★Buffalo → Eastern Michigan0.941.45
24Brendan SorsbyQB · 4★Indiana → Cincinnati0.931.66
25Riley LeonardQB · 4★Duke → Notre Dame0.912.77

Every FBS team, 2024

134

In is the arrivals' WAR in 2023 at their old schools, Out the departures' WAR here that season, and Net the difference.

#TeamInOutNet
1Oregon2.360.00+2.36
2UCF2.340.19+2.15
3Vanderbilt2.940.82+2.13
4Indiana3.291.25+2.04
5USC2.080.12+1.95
6Rice1.770.00+1.77
7Florida State1.660.05+1.61
8Texas State3.521.92+1.61
8California2.030.42+1.61
10Syracuse1.710.15+1.56
11Western Kentucky1.580.09+1.49
12Sam Houston1.410.00+1.41
13Baylor2.571.23+1.34
14Notre Dame1.400.08+1.32
14Kentucky1.370.04+1.33
16NC State1.860.56+1.30
17Wisconsin1.360.16+1.20
18Miami2.981.95+1.04
19Louisville1.040.06+0.98
20Washington1.020.08+0.94
21North Carolina0.960.06+0.90
22Ohio State2.661.76+0.90
23Missouri0.830.00+0.83
24Cincinnati0.920.19+0.73
25Georgia0.700.00+0.70
26Tulsa1.000.37+0.63
27San Diego State0.770.15+0.62
27BYU0.620.00+0.62
29South Carolina1.080.47+0.61
29Memphis0.620.01+0.61
31Florida Atlantic1.530.96+0.57
32Mississippi State1.871.34+0.53
32LSU0.800.27+0.53
34Texas0.520.08+0.44
35Boston College0.540.12+0.42
36Iowa0.37−0.02+0.39
37Ole Miss0.920.59+0.33
38Tennessee0.240.00+0.24
39Oklahoma State0.320.09+0.23
40Virginia Tech0.330.11+0.22
41Nevada0.390.18+0.21
42Akron0.280.10+0.18
43East Carolina0.570.40+0.17
44Charlotte0.260.10+0.16
45Michigan0.110.00+0.11
46Jacksonville State0.100.00+0.10
47Arkansas State0.210.11+0.09
48Rutgers1.010.92+0.08
48SMU0.080.00+0.08
50Virginia0.070.00+0.07
51Maryland0.280.24+0.05
51Troy0.110.06+0.04
53Northwestern0.390.37+0.02
53Auburn0.320.30+0.02
53Iowa State0.260.24+0.02
56Penn State0.130.12+0.01
56West Virginia0.060.05+0.01
58Bowling Green0.000.000.00
58Navy0.000.000.00
58Wyoming0.000.000.00
58Georgia Tech0.000.000.00
58UTSA0.000.000.00
58Kansas0.000.000.00
58Northern Illinois0.000.00−0.00
58Southern Miss0.000.000.00
58Army0.000.000.00
58Louisiana0.000.000.00
58Kennesaw State0.000.000.00
69Purdue0.320.36−0.04
69UAB0.000.04−0.04
69UL Monroe0.000.03−0.03
72Hawai'i0.140.19−0.06
73Stanford0.000.07−0.07
74Colorado0.260.34−0.08
75Arizona0.550.64−0.09
75Tulane0.130.21−0.08
75Georgia Southern0.000.09−0.09
78Arizona State0.320.43−0.11
78New Mexico0.150.26−0.11
78Fresno State0.000.10−0.10
81TCU0.630.75−0.11
81South Florida0.040.15−0.11
83Eastern Michigan1.161.33−0.17
84Clemson0.000.18−0.18
85Florida International0.000.19−0.19
86Florida0.270.47−0.20
86Liberty0.050.24−0.20
86Pittsburgh0.000.20−0.20
89Alabama0.200.44−0.24
89South Alabama0.010.25−0.25
89Kent State0.000.24−0.24
92Illinois0.000.27−0.26
93Texas Tech0.420.69−0.27
94Houston0.120.40−0.28
94Air Force0.000.28−0.28
96Western Michigan0.080.37−0.29
97Nebraska0.290.60−0.30
97Middle Tennessee0.000.30−0.30
99Georgia State0.310.62−0.31
100App State0.000.34−0.34
101Arkansas1.742.08−0.35
102Michigan State0.510.92−0.40
103Texas A&M0.510.95−0.44
103UCLA0.080.52−0.44
105San José State0.000.45−0.45
106Colorado State0.010.53−0.52
107Marshall1.091.63−0.54
108Utah State0.821.40−0.58
109Minnesota0.381.01−0.63
109Massachusetts0.110.73−0.63
109Ball State0.000.63−0.63
112Old Dominion0.060.76−0.70
113Duke0.431.16−0.73
114Wake Forest0.461.21−0.75
115Utah0.281.13−0.85
116UConn0.271.18−0.91
117Louisiana Tech0.111.09−0.98
118Buffalo0.101.16−1.06
119Miami (OH)0.081.20−1.13
120UTEP0.061.32−1.25
121Boise State0.061.34−1.28
122Kansas State0.952.25−1.30
123Central Michigan0.001.40−1.40
124UNLV0.091.78−1.69
125Coastal Carolina0.242.01−1.77
126Temple0.092.01−1.92
127North Texas0.752.77−2.03
128Oregon State0.082.20−2.12
129Oklahoma0.372.61−2.24
130Toledo0.002.42−2.42
131Washington State0.052.70−2.65
132James Madison0.533.37−2.84
133Ohio0.002.95−2.95
134New Mexico State0.173.41−3.24

How it works

Each player's value is YardLine's wins above replacement: every play's expected points credited to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, against a typical backup. Only quarterbacks, skill players and specialists have a number of their own, because public play-by-play doesn't say which linemen or defenders were on the field. So a team that rebuilt its offensive line through the portal gets no credit for it here; the move counts show every position.

A move is valued by the season before it, so a team's portal class can be ranked as soon as the window closes, and the season after shows how it played out. WAR counts only snaps between FBS teams while the game was in doubt, so a transfer up from the FCS shows a dash before the move and adds nothing to his new team's In.

CFBD's portal list names players but doesn't identify them, so each entry is matched to the rosters of both schools. That ties about 19 in 20 skill-position transfers to a player; the rest count in the moves but add no WAR. The list updates every Tuesday.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com