Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1036th
  Defense+0.1435th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.2%62nd
  Defense42.0%47th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1612th
  Defense+1.1779th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0948th
  Defense+0.1235th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1335th
  Defense+0.1843rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%65th
  Defense47.4%49th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.3%64th
  Defense30.3%54th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2983rd
  Defense3.2720th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.0%56th
  Defense15.7%28th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.1%14th
  Defense15.6%42nd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   DSU
2. L
   UCLA
3. L
   SHSU
4. W
   UNI
5. L
   SDSU
6. L
   BOIS
7. L
   WSU
8. W
   NEV
9. W
   FRES
10. L
    UNLV
11. L
    USU
12. W
    UNM

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2024

1. Brayden SchagerQB413 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 79th of 232 QBs
   1.23WAR0.61 to 1.86
2. Micah AlejadoQB76 plays · +0.219 pts/play · 152nd of 232 QBs
   0.31WAR0.21 to 0.41
3. Landon SimsRB61 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 225th of 373 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
4. Tylan HinesRB53 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 240th of 373 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
5. Pofele AshlockWR45 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 166th of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.02 to 0.19
6. Jonah PanokeWR28 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 186th of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
7. Alex PerryWR15 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 233rd of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
8. Nick CenacleWR52 plays · +0.052 pts/play · 233rd of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.06 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  514514108th of 131Roster talent: 514, 108th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  106106121st of 131Recruiting: 106, 121st of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%3rd of 130Returning production: 90%, 3rd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.9−10.9105th of 131SP+ rating: −10.9, 105th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ4 1:12 4th & 2 at SDSU 31, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.6 pts
2. vs UNMQ3 1:23 4th & 1 at UNM 1, up 12Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.6 pts
3. vs BOISQ4 5:26 4th & 19 at BOIS 19, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.9 pts
4. vs UNLVQ2 3:25 4th & 1 at UNLV 23, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at SDSUQ4 2:45 4th & 18 at HAW 42, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts
6. at FRESQ2 2:51 4th & 4 at HAW 46, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs UNMQ1 3:37 4th & 1 at HAW 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at SHSUQ3 7:20 4th & 4 at HAW 41, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

81st of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   DSU
2. L

   UCLA
3. L

   SHSU
4. W

   UNI
5. L

   SDSU
6. L

   BOIS
7. L

   WSU
8. W

   NEV
9. W

   FRES
10. L

    UNLV
11. L

    USU
12. W

    UNM

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.66
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.46

Game by game

• DSUW 35-14 vs DSU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +4
• UCLAL 13-16 vs UCLA22% → 12%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −28, Possession & field position −3
• SHSUL 13-31 at SHSU45% → 0%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −42
• UNIW 36-7 vs UNI82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +22
• SDSUL 24-27 at SDSU50% → 11%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −25, Possession & field position −3
• BOISL 7-28 vs BOIS11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −17, Clock −1
• WSUL 10-42 at WSU15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −18
• NEVW 34-13 vs NEV62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• FRESW 21-20 at FRES22% → 80%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +37, Clock +4
• UNLVL 27-29 vs UNLV25% → 8%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −32, Clock −2
• USUL 10-55 at USU64% → 2%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −47, Clock −1
• UNMW 38-30 vs UNM50% → 99%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +43

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.