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HAW

Hawai'i 13 at Sam Houston 31

SHSU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:43 · Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+16.7Score differential+5.9Garbage-time factor+3.8Pregame prior+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:14: Ife Adeyi run for 9 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:58: Christian Pavon 26 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:03: Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +8.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:20: Hunter Watson pass complete to John Gentry for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:41: Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 55 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:54HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28HAW 4th & 21 at SHSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24HAW 4th & 16 at SHSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58SHSU 4th & 9 at HAW 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:27HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:03HAW 4th & 2 at SHSU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−1.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:20HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:15HAW 4th & 10 at SHSU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:44HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:44HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:00SHSU 4th & 11 at SHSU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:40HAW 4th & 9 at SHSU 48, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:27SHSU 4th & 1 at HAW 43, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:57SHSU 4th & 1 at HAW 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:00SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:14SHSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:03HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:20SHSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:41SHSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0055% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.2%
Hunter Watson run for 9 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
55.2%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
55.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 40 yds to the HAW 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
55.2%
Noah Smith run for 4 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
55.2%
DJ McKinney run for 7 yds to the HAW 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
55.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the HAW 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
55.2%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the HAW 7Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
57.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 7 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0243% → 42%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
57.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 4 yds to the HAW 17Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
57.1%
Landon Sims run for 3 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+6
57.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
58.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 59 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.5%
DJ McKinney run for 9 yds to the SHSU 29 DJ McKinney fumbled, recovered by HAW Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1843% → 41%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
57.1%
Cam Barfield run for 7 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
57.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the SHSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+4
57.4%
Cam Barfield run for 4 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 21
OPP 24
0
57.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 21
OPP 24
+41
59.3%
Kansei Matsuzawa 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4260% → 60%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
59.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
59.6%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+3
59.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds , Tylan Hines returns for 3 yds to the HAW 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
59.7%
Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
59.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2861% → 61%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
60.7%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+8
60.7%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the SHSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
60.7%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
61.2%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
60.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 4 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
60.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
60.6%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+16
60.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds , Tylan Hines returns for 16 yds to the HAW 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:5139% → 40%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
61.2%
Cam Barfield run for 6 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+52
61.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 52 yds to the SHSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+7
60.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 7 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
61.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
60.0%
Kansei Matsuzawa 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:1059% → 72%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
59.1%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
58.1%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
59.3%
Noah Smith run for no gain to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
58.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 10 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
59.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 10 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
60.4%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
60.4%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+11
59.9%
Hunter Watson run for 11 yds to the HAW 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
60.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 28Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+6
60.5%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the HAW 22Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+12
60.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 12 yds to the HAW 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
60.5%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the HAW 9Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
72.3%
Ife Adeyi run for 9 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4329% → 28%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
71.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 16 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for no gain to the HAW 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3373% → 78%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
72.7%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+9
72.7%
DJ McKinney run for 9 yds to the HAW 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
72.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 17 yds to the HAW 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
72.7%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the HAW 5Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
72.7%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the HAW 9Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
72.1%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the HAW 9Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
78.1%
Christian Pavon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 8 yds · 1:4924% → 20%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
75.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
76.9%
Brayden Schager run for 9 yds to the HAW 43Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+1
77.5%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
77.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 14 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
75.0%
Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 30
OWN 38
0
78.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 30
OWN 38
+4
80.1%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5721% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
77.1%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
77.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
77.2%
Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
75.8%
Cam Barfield run for 7 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
75.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds to the SHSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
75.8%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the SHSU 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+7
75.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 7 yds to the SHSU 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
76.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
68.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 2:3672% → 87%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+86
72.4%
Jay Ducker run for 86 yds to the HAW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
75.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 2 yds to the HAW 5Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.6%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the HAW 4Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the HAW 3Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to John Gentry for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 6:0517% → 17%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
82.9%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
83.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+7
84.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 7 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+13
83.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 13 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
81.5%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the SHSU 45Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+16
81.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Cam Barfield for 16 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
80.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 9 yds to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+10
80.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 10 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
80.9%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
+20
81.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 20 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.7%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
82.6%
Kansei Matsuzawa 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1285% → 87%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.2%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
86.1%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
86.7%
Hunter Watson pass intercepted Cam Stone return for no gain to the HAW 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:1617% → 14%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.3%
Brayden Schager run for 3 yds to the HAW 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
82.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
83.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4487% → 86%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
86.8%
Qua'Vez Humphreys run for 10 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.6%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
87.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-1
86.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to John Gentry for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 44Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+44
86.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds Tylan Hines return for 20 yds to the HAW 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1715% → 11%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 3 yds to the HAW 23Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-7
85.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 7 yards to the HAW 16Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
86.5%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
88.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 2:0288% → 97%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.0%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
88.7%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
88.0%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
97.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 55 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:564% → 3%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
96.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 6 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+5
96.1%
Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.2%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 36Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-11
96.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by Briceon Hayes for a loss of 11 yards to the HAW 40 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by HAW Zhen Sotelo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 21
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+12
96.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 12 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
96.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 38 yds · 6:4098% → 100%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
98.0%
DJ McKinney run for 8 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
98.0%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the HAW 43Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the HAW 43Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
98.1%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
98.4%
DJ McKinney run for 3 yds to the HAW 35Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
98.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+1
98.3%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the HAW 34Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+7
98.8%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
98.9%
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds to the HAW 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.5%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
99.5%
H. Watson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.6%
H. Watson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:14
Ife Adeyi run for 9 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 7:20
Hunter Watson pass complete to John Gentry for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q4 9:41
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 55 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com