Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0216th
  Defense+0.2213th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.0%17th
  Defense46.2%12th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1315th
  Defense+1.1775th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0218th
  Defense+0.2111th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0720th
  Defense+0.2040th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.3%29th
  Defense51.7%15th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense25.8%18th
  Defense30.8%36th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1961st
  Defense3.359th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.3%52nd
  Defense14.1%10th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.1%19th
  Defense13.3%21st

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   STAN
2. L
   UNLV
3. W
   NMSU
4. L
   WYO
5. L
   SJSU
6. L
   ASU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2026

1. Micah AlejadoQB275 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 31st of 192 QBs
   0.42WAR0.04 to 0.77
2. DeVon RiceRB80 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 52nd of 320 RBs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
3. Tama UiliataWR43 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 65th of 364 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.12
4. Kainoa CarvalhoWR40 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 100th of 364 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
5. Sean Olvera-HarlePK14 plays · +0.247 pts/play · 1st of 82 kickers
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.10
6. Audric HarrisWR25 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 164th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.07
7. Cam BarfieldRB28 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 209th of 320 RBs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.07
8. Gehrig HeilP27 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 7th of 84 punters
   0.03WAR0.00 to 0.07

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  557557115th of 138Roster talent: 557, 115th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  128128121st of 138Recruiting: 128, 121st of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  65%65%35th of 136Returning production: 65%, 35th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −12.9−12.9116th of 138SP+ rating so far: −12.9, 116th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ASUQ4 7:53 4th & 10 at ASU 21, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.7 pts
2. vs UNLVQ2 3:52 4th & 1 at HAW 29, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
3. vs SJSUQ2 9:04 4th & 1 at HAW 36, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs NMSUQ4 14:06 4th & 3 at HAW 29, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs SJSUQ2 1:53 4th & 19 at SJSU 37, down 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs NMSUQ2 7:31 4th & 4 at HAW 46, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at ASUQ4 0:27 4th & 5 at HAW 30, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. at WYOQ4 4:36 4th & 13 at WYO 37, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

138th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   STAN
2. L

   UNLV
3. W

   NMSU
4. L

   WYO
5. L

   SJSU
6. L

   ASU

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.56
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.06

Game by game

• STANL 27-37 at STAN38% → 2%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36, Possession & field position −1
• UNLVL 6-21 vs UNLV45% → 1%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −49, Clock −3
• NMSUW 29-19 vs NMSU73% → 96%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• WYOL 10-27 at WYO58% → 2%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −44
• SJSUL 16-20 vs SJSU64% → 21%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2
• ASUL 12-30 at ASU11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −16

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.