Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1664th
  Defense+0.1253rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.7%33rd
  Defense43.2%50th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3271st
  Defense+1.2742nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1782nd
  Defense+0.1621st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1548th
  Defense+0.0781st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.0%37th
  Defense48.8%41st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.5%42nd
  Defense31.4%60th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9662nd
  Defense2.9742nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.9%63rd
  Defense21.2%67th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.2%50th
  Defense17.3%60th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   FRES
2. L
   WYO
3. W
   UNM
4. L
   SDSU
5. L
   BOIS
6. W
   NEV
7. L
   SJSU
8. W
   UNLV
9. W
   HOU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2020

1. Chevan CordeiroQB360 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 16th of 212 QBs
   1.11WAR0.38 to 1.86
2. Calvin TurnerRB86 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 91st of 338 RBs
   0.32WAR0.24 to 0.39
3. Miles ReedRB93 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 142nd of 338 RBs
   0.24WAR0.17 to 0.30
4. Dae Dae HunterRB56 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 190th of 338 RBs
   0.17WAR0.14 to 0.20
5. Jared SmartWR43 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 176th of 409 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
6. Melquise StovallWR38 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 227th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.10
7. Rico Bussey Jr.WR40 plays · +0.047 pts/play · 316th of 409 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.01 to 0.07
8. Adam StackPK40 plays · −0.092 pts/play · 97th of 97 kickers
   −0.07WAR−0.14 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  39439495th of 127Roster talent: 394, 95th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  132132106th of 127Recruiting: 132, 106th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  48%48%95th of 127Returning production: 48%, 95th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.1−7.199th of 127SP+ rating: −7.1, 99th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.21 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SJSUQ2 7:19 4th & 9 at SJSU 21, up 18Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−6.6 pts
2. at SJSUQ1 3:03 4th & 4 at SJSU 26, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. at SJSUQ1 5:48 4th & 6 at SJSU 24, up 21Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
4. at SJSUQ1 9:28 4th & 5 at SJSU 25, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. vs UNMQ3 9:33 4th & 1 at HAW 34, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
6. vs UNMQ4 6:33 4th & 3 at UNM 24, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
7. at SJSUQ4 7:04 4th & 16 at HAW 41, up 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts
8. at SJSUQ1 11:36 4th & 5 at SJSU 14, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

31st of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   FRES
2. L

   WYO
3. W

   UNM
4. L

   SDSU
5. L

   BOIS
6. W

   NEV
7. L

   SJSU
8. W

   UNLV
9. W

   HOU

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.40
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.19

Game by game

• FRESW 34-19 at FRES42% → 99%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• WYOL 7-31 at WYO56% → 1%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −47, Clock −1
• UNMW 39-33 vs UNM82% → 95%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• SDSUL 10-34 at SDSU23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26
• BOISL 32-40 vs BOIS17% → 5%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −28, Clock −1
• NEVW 24-21 vs NEV29% → 89%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts −1
• SJSUL 24-35 at SJSU56% → 95%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +48, Possession & field position +1
• UNLVW 38-21 vs UNLV85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• HOUW 28-14 at HOU28% → 99%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +62, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.