Hawai'i

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2184th
  Defense+0.1920th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.8%92nd
  Defense46.4%22nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2358th
  Defense+1.2247th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1060th
  Defense+0.272nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2771st
  Defense+0.1164th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.2%90th
  Defense51.9%12th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.5%90th
  Defense34.1%41st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1076th
  Defense3.364th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.0%34th
  Defense13.7%3rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.4%82nd
  Defense16.4%10th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Hawai'i allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ARIZ
2. W
   ORST
3. L
   WASH
4. W
   CARK
5. W
   NEV
6. L
   BOIS
7. L
   AF
8. W
   UNM
9. L
   FRES
10. W
    SJSU
11. W
    UNLV
12. W
    SDSU
13. W
    ARMY
14. L
    BOIS
15. W
    BYU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Hawai'i.

Players, 2019

1. Cole McDonaldQB464 plays · +0.228 pts/play · 16th of 228 QBs
   1.98WAR1.28 to 2.73
2. Chevan CordeiroQB119 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 134th of 228 QBs
   0.45WAR0.22 to 0.68
3. Miles ReedRB128 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 80th of 349 RBs
   0.44WAR0.34 to 0.55
4. Jason-Matthew SharshWR93 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 44th of 439 WRs
   0.24WAR0.15 to 0.33
5. JoJo WardWR87 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 49th of 439 WRs
   0.23WAR0.10 to 0.35
6. Cedric Byrd IIWR119 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 56th of 439 WRs
   0.22WAR0.06 to 0.37
7. Jared SmartWR101 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 78th of 439 WRs
   0.19WAR0.08 to 0.32
8. Fred Holly IIIRB43 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 245th of 349 RBs
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Hawai'i's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  42142198th of 130Roster talent: 421, 98th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12812899th of 130Recruiting: 128, 99th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  72%72%41st of 130Returning production: 72%, 41st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.9−1.969th of 130SP+ rating: −1.9, 69th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Hawai'i's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BYUQ4 4:07 4th & 23 at BYU 39, down 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−4.3 pts
2. vs ARIZQ4 10:39 4th & 2 at ARIZ 17, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.6 pts
3. vs SDSUQ4 1:31 4th & 2 at SDSU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
4. at UNLVQ3 7:14 4th & 1 at HAW 35, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
5. vs AFQ4 13:33 4th & 10 at HAW 38, down 16Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts
6. vs FRESQ4 10:01 4th & 6 at FRES 6, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs ORSTQ2 0:34 4th & 4 at ORST 17, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs SDSUQ2 13:31 4th & 7 at SDSU 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

2nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Hawai'i's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ARIZ
2. W

   ORST
3. L

   WASH
4. W

   CARK
5. W

   NEV
6. L

   BOIS
7. L

   AF
8. W

   UNM
9. L

   FRES
10. W

    SJSU
11. W

    UNLV
12. W

    SDSU
13. W

    ARMY
14. L

    BOIS
15. W

    BYU

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Hawai'i's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.76
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.16

Game by game

• ARIZW 45-38 vs ARIZ23% → 87%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +31, Possession & field position −4
• ORSTW 31-28 vs ORST67% → 87%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +2
• WASHL 20-52 at WASH8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −10
• CARKW 35-16 vs CARK86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• NEVW 54-3 at NEV46% → 100%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +56
• BOISL 37-59 at BOIS22% → 1%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −25, Clock −1
• AFL 26-56 vs AF41% → 0%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −46, Clock −1
• UNMW 45-31 at UNM76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• FRESL 38-41 vs FRES59% → 4%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• SJSUW 42-40 vs SJSU72% → 82%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +2
• UNLVW 21-7 at UNLV66% → 99%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• SDSUW 14-11 vs SDSU53% → 94%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts −1
• ARMYW 52-31 vs ARMY57% → 100%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +38, Possession & field position +1
• BOISL 10-31 at BOIS19% → 0%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −23
• BYUW 38-34 at BYU43% → 76%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +36, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Hawai'i's side.

Closest call

STAN 20-23 HAW (2025) - Hawai'i dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.