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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Iowa
    9-3 · resume score 33.2 · schedule 3.0
    Resume #24
    CFP #16
  • Oregon
    11-2 · resume score 56.2 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #13
    CFP #6
  • Wisconsin
    10-3 · resume score 54.5 · schedule 3.7
    Resume #15
    CFP #8

Resume says higher

  • Boise State
    12-1 · resume score 70.9 · schedule 2.3
    Resume #7
    CFP #19
  • App State
    12-1 · resume score 70.6 · schedule 2.3
    Resume #8
    CFP #20
  • Memphis
    12-1 · resume score 73.5 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #6
    CFP #17

Every FBS team, 2019

130

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1LSU13-098.811
2Ohio State13-098.632
3Clemson13-093.023
4Oklahoma12-183.374
5Georgia11-278.045
6Memphis12-173.51717
7Boise State12-170.92319
8App State12-170.61920
9Penn State10-266.4910
10Florida10-266.369
11Notre Dame10-262.21215
12Baylor11-261.1137
13Oregon11-256.256
14Auburn9-354.71412
15Wisconsin10-354.5118
16Cincinnati10-354.42121
17Utah11-253.91611
18Alabama10-253.4813
20Michigan9-347.01814
21SMU10-246.5--
22Air Force10-241.322-
23Minnesota10-241.21018
24Iowa9-333.21516
25Louisiana10-327.8--
26Florida Atlantic10-325.7--
27UCF9-316.824-
28USC8-416.6-22
29Virginia9-414.8-24
30Oklahoma State8-49.7-25
31Kansas State8-47.9--
32Marshall8-47.1--
33Indiana8-47.1--
34Wake Forest8-47.0--
35Texas7-56.325-
36San Diego State9-36.3--
37Temple8-46.2--
38Louisville7-55.9--
39Texas A&M7-55.0--
40Miami (OH)8-54.5--
41Virginia Tech8-44.3--
42Louisiana Tech9-34.2--
43Utah State7-53.9--
44Iowa State7-53.4--
45Hawai'i9-53.4--
46Tennessee7-53.3--
47Pittsburgh7-52.9--
48Georgia Southern7-52.7--
49BYU7-52.5--
50UAB9-42.4--
51California7-52.3--
52Western Kentucky8-42.1--
53Mississippi State6-61.9--
54Washington7-51.6--
55Arizona State7-51.5--
56Southern Miss7-51.4--
57Florida State6-61.2--
58Charlotte7-51.1--
59Tulane6-60.9--
60Wyoming7-50.9--
61Arkansas State7-50.8--
62Georgia State7-50.8--
63Kentucky7-50.8--
64Michigan State6-60.7--
65North Carolina6-60.6--
66Central Michigan8-50.5--
67Buffalo7-50.4--
68Nevada7-50.4--
69Boston College6-60.4--
70Miami6-60.3--
71Western Michigan7-50.3--
72Missouri6-60.2--
73Washington State6-60.2--
74South Carolina4-80.2--
75Illinois6-60.2--
76Kent State6-60.2--
77Colorado5-70.1--
78TCU5-70.1--
79Duke5-70.1--
80Liberty7-50.1--
81West Virginia5-70.1--
82Oregon State5-70.1--
83Toledo6-6<0.1--
84Nebraska5-7<0.1--
85Ohio6-6<0.1--
86UL Monroe5-7<0.1--
87Florida International6-6<0.1--
88Tulsa4-8<0.1--
89Eastern Michigan6-6<0.1--
90Syracuse5-7<0.1--
91UCLA4-8<0.1--
92Stanford4-8<0.1--
93Houston4-8<0.1--
94Ole Miss4-8<0.1--
95Northern Illinois5-7<0.1--
96South Florida4-8<0.1--
97San José State5-7<0.1--
98Purdue4-8<0.1--
99Ball State5-7<0.1--
100Arizona4-8<0.1--
101Coastal Carolina5-7<0.1--
102Troy5-7<0.1--
103Texas Tech4-8<0.1--
104Middle Tennessee4-8<0.1--
105NC State4-8<0.1--
106Fresno State4-8<0.1--
107UNLV4-8<0.1--
108Army5-8<0.1--
109Maryland3-9<0.1--
110Kansas3-9<0.1--
111Georgia Tech3-9<0.1--
112Vanderbilt3-9<0.1--
113Northwestern3-9<0.1--
114Colorado State4-8<0.1--
115UTSA4-8<0.1--
116North Texas4-8<0.1--
117East Carolina4-8<0.1--
118Texas State3-9<0.1--
119Bowling Green3-9<0.1--
120Rutgers2-10<0.1--
121Rice3-9<0.1--
122Arkansas2-10<0.1--
123South Alabama2-10<0.1--
124New Mexico2-10<0.1--
125UConn2-10<0.1--
126New Mexico State2-10<0.1--
127Old Dominion1-11<0.1--
128UTEP1-11<0.1--
129Massachusetts1-11<0.1--
130Akron0-12<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com