Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2680th
  Defense−0.0279th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.3%80th
  Defense36.1%81st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3382nd
  Defense+1.3126th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1352nd
  Defense+0.1328th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5495th
  Defense−0.0996th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%58th
  Defense44.0%68th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense45.3%99th
  Defense22.7%88th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3077th
  Defense2.8258th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.2%41st
  Defense25.2%88th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense10.9%89th
  Defense20.3%89th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NCAT
2. W
   KENN
3. L
   UCF
4. W
   NIU
5. W
   ODU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2026

1. Cameran BrownQB108 plays · +0.220 pts/play · 25th of 192 QBs
   0.45WAR0.25 to 0.62
2. Lanear McCrary Jr.RB42 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 99th of 320 RBs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.11
3. Grant HollierTE11 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 39th of 164 TEs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.05
4. Qwantavius WigginsRB6 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 285th of 320 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02
5. Dennis Murray Jr.RB4 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 285th of 320 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  574574106th of 138Roster talent: 574, 106th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15115199th of 138Recruiting: 151, 99th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  47%47%58th of 136Returning production: 47%, 58th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.8−4.891st of 138SP+ rating so far: −4.8, 91st of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UCFQ4 1:52 4th & 7 at UCF 31, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
2. at KENNQ2 6:49 4th & 2 at GAST 24, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at KENNQ4 9:15 4th & 4 at KENN 24, up 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs NIUQ3 13:14 4th & 3 at GAST 36, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. at UCFQ4 7:14 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs NIUQ4 6:58 4th & 2 at GAST 31, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
7. at KENNQ1 9:18 4th & 4 at KENN 23, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. vs ODUQ4 1:02 4th & 4 at ODU 22, up 32Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

7th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NCAT
2. W

   KENN
3. L

   UCF
4. W

   NIU
5. W

   ODU

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.19
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.06

Game by game

• NCATW 59-10 vs NCAT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• KENNW 31-17 at KENN35% → 99%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +60, Clock +3
• UCFL 30-44 at UCF14% → 2%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −19
• NIUW 35-14 vs NIU71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +1
• ODUW 42-10 vs ODU59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.