Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2168th
  Defense+0.1071st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.0%81st
  Defense38.6%82nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1612th
  Defense+1.3422nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2283rd
  Defense+0.0376th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2559th
  Defense+0.2343rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.0%83rd
  Defense42.8%88th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.7%56th
  Defense31.1%46th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3180th
  Defense2.7286th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.3%82nd
  Defense19.3%77th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.4%74th
  Defense17.9%73rd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ARMY
2. L
   UNC
3. W
   CLT
4. L
   AUB
5. L
   APP
6. W
   ULM
7. W
   TXST
8. W
   GASO
9. L
   UL
10. W
    CCU
11. W
    ARST
12. W
    TROY
13. W
    BALL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2021

1. Darren GraingerQB289 plays · +0.239 pts/play · 73rd of 219 QBs
   1.29WAR0.74 to 1.85
2. Tucker GreggRB142 plays · +0.261 pts/play · 34th of 387 RBs
   0.69WAR0.56 to 0.86
3. Jamyest WilliamsRB87 plays · +0.243 pts/play · 101st of 387 RBs
   0.40WAR0.30 to 0.48
4. Cornelious Brown IVQB81 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 167th of 219 QBs
   0.25WAR0.09 to 0.39
5. Michael Hayes IIPK37 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 16th of 128 kickers
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.22
6. Sam PinckneyWR22 plays · +0.210 pts/play · 264th of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.11
7. Destin CoatesRB43 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 300th of 387 RBs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.13
8. Jamari ThrashWR19 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 322nd of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  414414102nd of 130Roster talent: 414, 102nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13913997th of 130Recruiting: 139, 97th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  100%100%5th of 128Returning production: 100%, 5th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.8+1.871st of 130SP+ rating: +1.8, 71st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at AUBQ3 7:28 4th & 9 at AUB 37, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. at UNCQ2 3:03 4th & 15 at GAST 12, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
3. at ULQ2 12:21 4th & 6 at UL 39, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
4. at ULMQ1 2:58 4th & 5 at ULM 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. vs TROYQ3 1:30 4th & 5 at TROY 33, up 24Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at GASOQ4 6:35 4th & 8 at GASO 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at GASOQ1 10:10 4th & 3 at GASO 47, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. at BALLQ1 9:37 4th & 4 at GAST 10, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

26th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ARMY
2. L

   UNC
3. W

   CLT
4. L

   AUB
5. L

   APP
6. W

   ULM
7. W

   TXST
8. W

   GASO
9. L

   UL
10. W

    CCU
11. W

    ARST
12. W

    TROY
13. W

    BALL

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.45
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock+0.01
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.13

Game by game

• ARMYL 10-43 vs ARMY58% → 0%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −58, Clock −2
• UNCL 17-59 at UNC6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −7
• CLTW 20-9 vs CLT62% → 97%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position +1
• AUBL 24-34 at AUB4% → 7%Before kickoff −46 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −11, Clock −1
• APPL 16-45 vs APP27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −32, Clock −1
• ULMW 55-21 at ULM86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• TXSTW 28-16 vs TXST81% → 97%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +23, Possession & field position −1
• GASOW 21-14 at GASO72% → 75%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position −4
• ULL 17-21 at UL20% → 4%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• CCUW 42-40 at CCU20% → 13%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −22, Possession & field position +3
• ARSTW 28-20 vs ARST87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +18
• TROYW 37-10 vs TROY71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position −1
• BALLW 51-20 at BALL67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.