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APP

App State 45 at Georgia State 16

GAST
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:28 · Michael Hayes punt for 22 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior−20.1Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:08: Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:22: Noel Ruiz 22 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +5.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:05: Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 79 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +14.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:44: Chandler Staton 48 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +3.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Jacob Huesman pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:46GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39APP 4th & 11 at GAST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:28GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47APP 4th & 3 at GAST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:14GAST 4th & 5 at APP 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:35GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:55GAST 4th & 5 at APP 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:28APP 4th & 7 at APP 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:22GAST 4th & 5 at APP 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:44APP 4th & 6 at GAST 31, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:56GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:35GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 44, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:11GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:09GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 43, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:24APP 4th & 5 at GAST 36, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:20APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:08APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:05APP Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00APP Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:23APP Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:51APP Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:44GAST Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Darren Grainger pass intercepted return for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:3073% → 73%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
26.6%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+12
26.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 12 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
26.6%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
26.6%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
26.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
26.8%
Nate Noel run for 23 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3427% → 27%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.0%
Darren Grainger sacked by Demetrius Taylor for 0 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
26.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0773% → 72%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
27.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
27.0%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
26.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
26.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
27.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Jordan Veneziale for 0 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+4
27.1%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+3
27.2%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
27.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1128% → 28%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
27.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+2
27.9%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
27.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
27.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4173% → 73%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
27.1%
Milan Tucker run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
27.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
26.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
27.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:3329% → 33%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
28.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+17
28.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 17 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
29.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
29.2%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by D'Marco Jackson for 0 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+12
28.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 12 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
29.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 9 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+1
30.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
30.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
30.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for no gain to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
32.6%
Noel Ruiz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5369% → 67%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.5%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-6
30.8%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 26 fumbled, recovered by AppSt Chase BriceSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
32.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
SUBOTSCH, Xavier punt 43 yards to the GSU32 out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, GSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the APP25 to the APP30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4633% → 32%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
32.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 5 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
34.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
33.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
32.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 48 yds, downed at the AppSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 4:2768% → 77%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
32.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 9 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
31.4%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
31.9%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
32.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+14
32.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
30.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
30.7%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
30.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
29.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
29.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
29.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
23.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:1324% → 27%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
23.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 11 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
24.0%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
24.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 15 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
25.0%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Demetrius Taylor for 0 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
24.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
25.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 6 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+11
25.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
25.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+4
24.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
25.3%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
26.8%
Noel Ruiz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5575% → 77%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
24.6%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left complete for 0 yards to NOEL, Nate caught at the APP13 and advanced to the APP16 (WHITE, Quavian). PENALTY APP Holding on WILSON, Eli enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the APP16 to the APP8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+1
25.0%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+5
25.3%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+12
25.6%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
23.2%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3276% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
23.6%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
23.5%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
24.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 51 yds, downed at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:0625% → 33%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
25.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+24
25.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 24 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
25.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+5
28.2%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
28.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
28.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 12 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
29.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
29.7%
BROWN, Cornelious pass up the middle incomplete intended for CARTER, Roger thrown to the APP7. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on JACKSON, D'Marco enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the APP10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
29.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
29.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 5 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
33.4%
Noel Ruiz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
18.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 79 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0821% → 21%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
20.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 19 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
21.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
21.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
20.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted return for no gain to the GeoSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1384% → 87%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
16.2%
Jahmir Smith run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
15.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
15.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
16.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
12.7%
Chandler Staton 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5715% → 13%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
14.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
14.2%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
14.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
13.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5689% → 98%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
11.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
11.5%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for SUTTON, Corey thrown to the APP35. PENALTY GSU Offsides on WILLIS, Hardrick enforced 5 yards from the APP31 to the APP36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
10.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+17
10.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 17 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
10.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 14 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
9.6%
Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
9.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Targeting on MOORE, Chris enforced (Chris Moore) to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
8.8%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
8.8%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
7.1%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.7%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:253% → 3%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
3.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
3.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Nick Hampton for 0 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
2.5%
Michael Hayes punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
0.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 80 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
0.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
0.4%
Anderson Castle run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
0.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
0.3%
Anderson Castle run for 22 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacob Freeman for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-2
0.2%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
0.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-2
0.2%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
0.3%
HUESMAN, Jacob scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the GSU36 (WRIGHT, Kyle), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY APP Face mask on HUESMAN, Jacob GSU Targeting on DIXON, Zach , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
0.3%
Jacob Huesman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
0.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 35 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
0.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+2
0.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+15
0.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
0.1%
Tailique Williams run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
0.1%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for FREEMAN, Jacob thrown to the APP14. PENALTY APP Offsides on FRIZZELL, Tim enforced 5 yards from the GSU42 to the GSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
0.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Donavon Grier for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 34 fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Darren Grainger , return for no gain to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+66
0.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 66 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Gabe Montgomery run for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
0.2%
Gabe Montgomery run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.1%
Gabe Montgomery run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
0.1%
Gabe Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+1
0.1%
Gabe Montgomery run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:05
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 79 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q2 6:08
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-6.8
FG · Q3 8:22
Noel Ruiz 22 yd FG GOOD
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com