Worth watching this week
See all →Model v102014-2024 · 1.34M plays
College football win probability, play by play.
1.3M
plays trained on
91%
AUC on held-out seasons
10,825
games replayable
WKU at SHSU · Week 7
16-3SHSU sat at 0% at one point. See the whole curve on the game page.
Beat the model
your guessthe model
A new set of real situations every day. Guess the win probability before you see it. Streak tracked.
01
Find a similar game
Set any situation and pull up the real games that looked just like it since 2014 - overlaid, colored by who went on to win.
02
Replay the archive
Every game as a curve, with the plays that bent it flagged.
03
Read the methodology
A gradient-boosted model, calibrated and honest about what it does not know. No black box.
Not betting advice. YardLine publishes model estimates for analysis and entertainment. Outputs are probabilistic, carry no guarantee of accuracy, and are not a prediction of any wagering outcome. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a bet.
YardLine is an independent project. Team names and records are used descriptively; no affiliation with, or endorsement by, any school or conference is implied.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
YardLine is an independent project. Team names and records are used descriptively; no affiliation with, or endorsement by, any school or conference is implied.
Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.