Playoff odds

Who wins each conference, who makes the 12-team playoff, who gets a bye and who wins it all: the rest of the season played out 50,000 times from YardLine's points model, which never looks at a betting line. Every assumption about how the field is picked is below.

2026 season, games through week 6. Updated every Tuesday.

The field

The 25 likeliest playoff teams. Bye is a top-four seed; title game is the national championship game.

Team	Win conf.	Playoff	Bye	Title game	Champion
MiamiACC	81%	95%	62%	26%	12%
Notre DameIndependent	-	94%	58%	34%	20%
GeorgiaSEC	55%	92%	63%	28%	14%
Ohio StateBig Ten	47%	86%	49%	34%	21%
IndianaBig Ten	36%	82%	36%	24%	13%
Texas TechBig 12	43%	67%	26%	9%	3%
AlabamaSEC	19%	66%	15%	13%	6%
UtahBig 12	30%	65%	26%	6%	2%
TexasSEC	10%	54%	12%	9%	4%
James MadisonSun Belt	70%	49%	10%	1%	<1%
BYUBig 12	18%	42%	10%	2%	<1%
UCLABig Ten	5%	35%	7%	1%	<1%
HoustonBig 12	4%	31%	3%	1%	<1%
Wake ForestACC	6%	30%	3%	<1%	<1%
Boise StatePac-12	60%	30%	1%	<1%	<1%
IowaBig Ten	3%	28%	2%	1%	<1%
MemphisAmerican	33%	23%	1%	<1%	<1%
USCBig Ten	3%	20%	2%	2%	1%
ArizonaBig 12	3%	17%	2%	<1%	<1%
Ole MissSEC	4%	15%	2%	1%	1%
UTSAAmerican	24%	14%	1%	<1%	<1%
LibertyConference USA	54%	14%	<1%	<1%	-
MissouriSEC	3%	13%	2%	1%	<1%
NebraskaBig Ten	1%	12%	1%	1%	<1%
New MexicoMountain West	43%	12%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Every other FBS team (113)

Team	Win conf.	Playoff	Bye	Title game	Champion
OklahomaSEC	2%	11%	1%	1%	<1%
TennesseeSEC	2%	10%	1%	1%	<1%
LSUSEC	3%	9%	1%	1%	<1%
Mississippi StateSEC	<1%	9%	1%	<1%	<1%
North Dakota StateMountain West	26%	8%	<1%	<1%	-
OregonBig Ten	4%	7%	1%	1%	1%
WisconsinBig Ten	1%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
KentuckySEC	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
SMUACC	6%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
North TexasAmerican	21%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
NorthwesternBig Ten	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
PittsburghACC	3%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
FloridaSEC	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Oregon StatePac-12	25%	3%	-	-	-
BaylorBig 12	2%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
DukeACC	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
MichiganBig Ten	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
LouisvilleACC	2%	2%	-	<1%	<1%
Air ForceMountain West	11%	2%	<1%	<1%	-
South FloridaAmerican	3%	1%	-	<1%	-
ClemsonACC	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
VirginiaACC	1%	1%	-	<1%	<1%
Georgia StateSun Belt	5%	1%	<1%	-	-
Fresno StatePac-12	7%	1%	-	<1%	-
CincinnatiBig 12	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	-
Louisiana TechSun Belt	9%	1%	-	<1%	-
Oklahoma StateBig 12	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	-
AuburnSEC	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	-
North CarolinaACC	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	-
Florida AtlanticAmerican	2%	<1%	<1%	-	-
East CarolinaAmerican	7%	<1%	-	-	-
Kansas StateBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	<1%	-
Texas A&MSEC	<1%	<1%	-	<1%	<1%
Western MichiganMAC	34%	<1%	-	-	-
TroySun Belt	4%	<1%	-	-	-
Virginia TechACC	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	-
CaliforniaACC	<1%	<1%	-	<1%	<1%
UNLVMountain West	17%	<1%	-	-	-
NC StateACC	<1%	<1%	-	<1%	-
South AlabamaSun Belt	5%	<1%	-	-	-
Arizona StateBig 12	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	-
LouisianaSun Belt	4%	<1%	-	-	-
ArmyAmerican	7%	<1%	-	-	-
UCFBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
MinnesotaBig Ten	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
Georgia TechACC	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
Jacksonville StateConference USA	24%	<1%	-	-	-
Iowa StateBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
KansasBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
South CarolinaSEC	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
OhioMAC	27%	<1%	-	-	-
PurdueBig Ten	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
Florida StateACC	<1%	<1%	-	<1%	<1%
App StateSun Belt	1%	<1%	-	-	-
TCUBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
TulaneAmerican	2%	<1%	-	-	-
Florida InternationalConference USA	12%	<1%	-	-	-
Texas StatePac-12	6%	<1%	-	-	-
IllinoisBig Ten	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
NavyAmerican	1%	<1%	-	-	-
VanderbiltSEC	-	<1%	-	-	-
ColoradoBig 12	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
SyracuseACC	<1%	<1%	-	-	-
WashingtonBig Ten	-	<1%	-	-	-
AkronMAC	<1%	-	-	-	-
ArkansasSEC	-	-	-	-	-
Arkansas StateSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
Ball StateMAC	<1%	-	-	-	-
Boston CollegeACC	-	-	-	-	-
Bowling GreenMAC	2%	-	-	-	-
BuffaloMAC	2%	-	-	-	-
Central MichiganMAC	2%	-	-	-	-
CharlotteAmerican	-	-	-	-	-
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
Colorado StatePac-12	<1%	-	-	-	-
DelawareConference USA	2%	-	-	-	-
Eastern MichiganMAC	7%	-	-	-	-
Georgia SouthernSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
Hawai'iMountain West	<1%	-	-	-	-
Kennesaw StateConference USA	1%	-	-	-	-
Kent StateMAC	<1%	-	-	-	-
MarshallSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
MarylandBig Ten	-	-	-	-	-
MassachusettsMAC	<1%	-	-	-	-
Miami (OH)MAC	4%	-	-	-	-
Michigan StateBig Ten	-	-	-	-	-
Middle TennesseeConference USA	<1%	-	-	-	-
Missouri StateConference USA	<1%	-	-	-	-
NevadaMountain West	1%	-	-	-	-
New Mexico StateConference USA	1%	-	-	-	-
Northern IllinoisMountain West	<1%	-	-	-	-
Old DominionSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
Penn StateBig Ten	-	-	-	-	-
RiceAmerican	<1%	-	-	-	-
RutgersBig Ten	-	-	-	-	-
Sacramento StateMAC	<1%	-	-	-	-
Sam HoustonConference USA	1%	-	-	-	-
San Diego StatePac-12	1%	-	-	-	-
San José StateMountain West	1%	-	-	-	-
Southern MissSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
StanfordACC	-	-	-	-	-
TempleAmerican	1%	-	-	-	-
ToledoMAC	21%	-	-	-	-
TulsaAmerican	<1%	-	-	-	-
UABAmerican	<1%	-	-	-	-
UConnIndependent	-	-	-	-	-
UL MonroeSun Belt	<1%	-	-	-	-
Utah StatePac-12	1%	-	-	-	-
UTEPMountain West	-	-	-	-	-
Washington StatePac-12	<1%	-	-	-	-
West VirginiaBig 12	-	-	-	-	-
Western KentuckyConference USA	4%	-	-	-	-
WyomingMountain West	2%	-	-	-	-

The games that matter most, week 7

The coming week's games expected to move the most playoff probability: how far each result would swing every contender, weighted by how likely the upset is. Each lists the teams it moves most.

Alabama at TennesseeSat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Alabama wins (66%)	If Tennessee wins (34%)
Alabama	66%	81%	36%
Tennessee	10%	4%	22%
Houston	31%	30%	33%
Texas Tech	67%	66%	68%

Wisconsin at UCLASat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Wisconsin wins (33%)	If UCLA wins (67%)
UCLA	35%	13%	46%
Wisconsin	7%	17%	3%
Texas	54%	56%	54%
Houston	31%	32%	30%

Notre Dame at BYUSat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Notre Dame wins (79%)	If BYU wins (21%)
BYU	42%	34%	73%
Notre Dame	94%	98%	77%
Utah	65%	65%	63%
USC	20%	20%	19%

Ohio State at IndianaSat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Ohio State wins (57%)	If Indiana wins (43%)
Indiana	82%	72%	94%
Ohio State	86%	94%	74%
USC	20%	21%	19%

Wake Forest at CaliforniaSat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Wake Forest wins (68%)	If California wins (32%)
Wake Forest	30%	40%	9%
BYU	42%	42%	44%
USC	20%	20%	21%
James Madison	49%	48%	50%

Florida at TexasSat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM EDT

Playoff odds	Now	If Florida wins (26%)	If Texas wins (74%)
Texas	54%	29%	63%
Florida	4%	11%	1%
James Madison	49%	50%	48%
Houston	31%	32%	31%

Conference races

Each conference's likeliest champions, and their chance of reaching the title game.

SEC

Title game · Wins it

Georgia91%55%
Alabama41%19%
Texas23%10%
Ole Miss10%4%
LSU7%3%

Big Ten

Title game · Wins it

Ohio State68%47%
Indiana61%36%
UCLA32%5%
Oregon8%4%
USC7%3%

Big 12

Title game · Wins it

Texas Tech69%43%
Utah58%30%
BYU43%18%
Houston13%4%
Arizona7%3%

ACC

Title game · Wins it

Miami99%81%
Wake Forest35%6%
SMU29%6%
Pittsburgh10%3%
Louisville8%2%

American

Title game · Wins it

Memphis55%33%
UTSA48%24%
North Texas41%21%
Army16%7%
East Carolina17%7%

Conference USA

Title game · Wins it

Liberty84%54%
Jacksonville State55%24%
Florida International29%12%
Western Kentucky10%4%
Delaware7%2%

MAC

Title game · Wins it

Western Michigan62%34%
Ohio55%27%
Toledo33%21%
Eastern Michigan20%7%
Miami (OH)10%4%

Mountain West

Title game · Wins it

New Mexico66%43%
North Dakota State53%26%
UNLV39%17%
Air Force29%11%
Wyoming7%2%

Pac-12

Title game · Wins it

Boise State90%60%
Oregon State62%25%
Fresno State24%7%
Texas State15%6%
Utah State6%1%

Sun Belt

Title game · Wins it

James Madison88%70%
Louisiana Tech37%9%
South Alabama23%5%
Georgia State9%5%
Troy18%4%

The Group of Six bid

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt, conference champion or not.

Team	Win conf.	Playoff	Bye	Title game	Champion
James MadisonSun Belt	70%	49%	10%	1%	<1%
Boise StatePac-12	60%	30%	1%	<1%	<1%
MemphisAmerican	33%	23%	1%	<1%	<1%
UTSAAmerican	24%	14%	1%	<1%	<1%
LibertyConference USA	54%	14%	<1%	<1%	-
New MexicoMountain West	43%	12%	<1%	<1%	<1%

How it works

The regular season is the same simulation as each team page's season outlook: every remaining game at the points model's own win probability, with a shared strength shock per team per simulated season, so a team the model has misjudged stays misjudged for the rest of that season, December included.

Conference title games pair the top two teams by conference record (the Sun Belt's two division winners). Ties go to the head-to-head record among the tied teams, then to the resume ranking below; the conferences' full tiebreaker cascades aren't modelled. Power conference and MAC title games are at a neutral site, the rest at the higher seed's home.

Games nobody has scheduled yet (title games, the playoff) use team ratings implied by the points model's own predictions this season. On this season's scheduled games they land within about four points of the model's win probability.

The committee is stood in for by YardLine's resume rankings: how hard each final record, title game included, would be for a top-12 team to match on the same schedule, with every team's rating held where it is today. The real committee also weighs how good a team looks, so the bubble here is a resume bubble.

Selection follows the 2026 rules:

Automatic bids to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions.
One automatic bid to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt, whether or not it won its conference.
Notre Dame, if it is ranked in the top 12.
The highest-ranked teams left fill the other spots.
Seeds 1-12 go straight by ranking; the top four get byes. First-round games are at the higher seed's home, every later round at a neutral site.

The Pac-12's final-week flex games join the simulation once they are scheduled. The odds update every Tuesday, after the weekend's games are scored.