Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1449th
  Defense+0.2214th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.1%85th
  Defense47.1%9th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1624th
  Defense+1.2350th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1147th
  Defense+0.1424th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2350th
  Defense+0.464th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.8%82nd
  Defense51.9%13th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.6%78th
  Defense34.3%23rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0445th
  Defense3.504th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.1%43rd
  Defense12.8%8th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.4%53rd
  Defense11.0%4th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MEM
2. W
   WGA
3. L
   TCU
4. W
   KENN
5. L
   UL
6. L
   USA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2026

1. Trey OwensQB171 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 35th of 192 QBs
   0.40WAR0.13 to 0.66
2. Hunter SummersWR33 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 53rd of 364 WRs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.14
3. Solomon BaggettRB36 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 131st of 320 RBs
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.10
4. Chauncy CobbWR31 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 91st of 364 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
5. Jaylen BonelliWR24 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 112th of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
6. Kenyon ClayRB23 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 223rd of 320 RBs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.05
7. Daniel VuckovicP16 plays · +0.054 pts/play · 39th of 84 punters
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.04
8. Tyler LittleTE10 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 83rd of 164 TEs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60660691st of 138Roster talent: 606, 91st of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17317376th of 138Recruiting: 173, 76th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  30%30%89th of 136Returning production: 30%, 89th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −8.0−8.0104th of 138SP+ rating so far: −8.0, 104th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs KENNQ4 8:19 4th & 2 at KENN 15, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. at ULQ3 5:08 4th & 4 at UL 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. at TCUQ1 1:02 4th & 2 at ARST 19, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at TCUQ2 3:09 4th & 5 at ARST 47, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. vs KENNQ1 6:31 4th & 4 at KENN 26, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs WGAQ3 1:43 4th & 4 at WGA 8, up 31Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
7. vs USAQ4 13:37 4th & 4 at ARST 27, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

117th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MEM
2. W

   WGA
3. L

   TCU
4. W

   KENN
5. L

   UL
6. L

   USA

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.93
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.09

Game by game

• MEML 24-42 at MEM26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −29
• WGAW 52-7 vs WGA97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +4
• TCUL 7-31 at TCU11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −15, Timeouts −1
• KENNW 17-14 vs KENN71% → 96%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2
• ULL 20-23 at UL31% → 4%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −1
• USAL 49-56 vs USA53% → 1%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −53, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.