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ARST

Arkansas State 20 at Louisiana 23

UL
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:31: (00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UL09, for 21 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:31, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +12.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:54: (14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 13 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +21.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:48: (11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +28.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:38: (05:38) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 05:38 — UL win probability +14.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Tony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +12.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:18ARST 4th & 3 at UL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:07UL 4th & 5 at UL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:27ARST 4th & 5 at UL 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:10UL 4th & 7 at UL 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:38UL 4th & 2 at ARST 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.2%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:04UL 4th & 3 at ARST 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−10.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:08ARST 4th & 4 at UL 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−13.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:38UL 4th & 6 at ARST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−8.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−21.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:54ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−4.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:59UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:31ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:54UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:48ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2731% → 32%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.0%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU29, for 6 yards to the ASU31 (#10 A.Demery; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
68.9%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU34 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
68.8%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ASU46 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
68.5%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #11 T.Little caught at ASU47, for 3 yards to the ASU49 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
68.4%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at UL44, for 11 yards to the UL40 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
68.2%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL36 (#9 L.Williams; #8 K.Jackson)Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
68.0%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL33 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
67.9%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bush thrown to UL00 QB hurried by #44 J.St. AndreSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
68.2%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #0 N.Burris thrown to UL30 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr., TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2969% → 69%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
68.5%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UL43 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
68.8%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL45 (#92 E.Sherman; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+24
68.8%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #17 L.Strother caught at ASU40, for 24 yards to the ASU31 (#3 N.Flores; #16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
68.8%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush left for 13 yards gain to the ASU18 fumbled by #0 D.Smith at ASU18 forced by #4 M.Shahid recovered by ASU #4 M.Shahid at ASU18, End Of Play. #0 D.Smith injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3832% → 32%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.0%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU18 (#99 A.Wright)Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
67.9%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Cobb thrown to ASU18 QB hurried by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
68.2%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep middle to #3 H.Summers thrown to ASU41Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
68.3%
(07:40) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 48 yards to the UL34 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:2668% → 72%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
67.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #24 S.Blanco caught at UL40, for 10 yards to the UL44 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
68.4%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #4 T.Chaney caught at UL44, for 1 yard loss to the UL43 (#3 N.Flores; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+11
68.1%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ASU46 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
68.6%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU44 (#34 M.McShan)Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
68.5%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at ASU35, for 16 yards to the ASU28 (#16 J.Drew) PENALTY UL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#75 K.Moreau) 5 yards from ASU44 to ASU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-1
67.9%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush right for 1 yard loss to the ASU50 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 14
50
+36
67.3%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep right to #9 K.Wade caught at ASU14, for 36 yards to the ASU14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
68.7%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU10 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+8
68.7%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #22 A.Reagan Jr. caught at ASU10, for 8 yards to the ASU02 (#6 A.McGhee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:59 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5329% → 28%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU23, for 13 yards to the ASU38 (#44 J.St. Andre; #8 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.5%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #3 H.Summers thrown to UL15 broken up by #10 A.DemerySimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
70.6%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU32, for 6 yards loss to the ASU32 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+8
71.8%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #17 J.Bush caught at ASU35, for 8 yards to the ASU40 (#3 M.Johnson; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
71.7%
(14:53) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 46 yards to the UL14 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL14 PENALTY UL Blocking Out Of Bounds (#34 J.Reed) 7 yards from UL14 to UL07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3172% → 72%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
71.5%
(14:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UL23 (#13 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
71.8%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #88 C.Jensen caught at UL40, for 17 yards to the UL40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.8%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush left for 6 yards gain to the UL46 (#0 D.Henderson; #4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-1
73.1%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #10 R.Babineaux caught at UL45, for 1 yard loss to the UL45 (#30 G.Taylor)Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
72.7%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #83 B.Chappell thrown to ASU44 broken up by #3 N.FloresSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
71.7%
(12:06) #49 M.Golding punt 39 yards to the ASU16 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:2928% → 33%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
71.6%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU19 (#2 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+11
71.8%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU24, for 11 yards to the ASU30 (#24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
71.6%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU27, for 1 yard loss to the ASU29 (#0 P.Ashe)Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+19
72.2%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU45, for 19 yards to the ASU48 (#10 A.Demery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
70.7%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 6 yards gain to the UL46 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+12
70.2%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush left for 12 yards gain to the UL34 (#10 A.Demery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
70.0%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UL35, for 11 yards to the UL23 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.7%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #3 H.Summers thrown to UL03Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
70.1%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush left for 3 yards gain to the UL20 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+7
70.8%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UL15, for 7 yards to the UL13 (#9 L.Williams; #3 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.7%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #0 N.Burris thrown to UL00 QB hurried by #9 L.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
69.8%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #16 J.Burrell caught at UL08, for 5 yards to the UL08 (#44 J.St. Andre; #11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
70.9%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Cobb thrown to UL00 broken up by #35 C.JacobSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
67.0%
(05:27) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 05:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1269% → 68%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
69.0%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to UL35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (#13 K.Williams) 10 yards from UL25 to UL35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
69.2%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL38 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
70.2%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the UL38 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
68.8%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #17 L.Strother thrown to UL48 QB hurried by #10 T.Carter. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at UL48, for 10 yards to the UL48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
68.2%
(03:10) #49 M.Golding punt 30 yards to the ASU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:2932% → 47%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
67.6%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU37 (#3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
66.4%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU37 fumbled by #9 T.Owens at ASU30 recovered by ASU #9 T.Owens at ASU30 (#3 M.Johnson; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
68.0%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU42 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
66.7%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 1 yard loss to the ASU41 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+24
67.4%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at UL40, for 24 yards to the UL35 (#44 J.St. Andre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
63.8%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UL31, for 4 yards to the UL31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
63.5%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UL32 (#99 A.Wright)Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
65.0%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #16 J.Burrell caught at UL25, for 11 yards to the UL21 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #3 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
65.4%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #0 N.Burris thrown to UL00Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
52.9%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UL09, for 21 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:31, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1359% → 59%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.3%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the UL30 (#9 K.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
59.3%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 1 yard gain to the UL31 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:3858% → 64%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
58.4%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UL44 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
60.2%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #20 J.Garner caught at UL46, for 4 yards to the UL48 (#16 J.Drew), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
60.6%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU49 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
59.9%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU48 (#16 J.Drew). #0 D.Henderson injured on the playSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
57.9%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU43 (#20 T.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
60.1%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #4 T.Chaney caught at ASU30, for 16 yards to the ASU27 (#13 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
61.2%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU25 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
61.0%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU23 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
59.1%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #83 B.Chappell caught at ASU21, for 3 yards to the ASU20 (#0 D.Henderson; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
64.3%
(09:04) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 09:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:3046% → 50%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
54.4%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UL11 (#17 T.Chikere; #9 L.Williams)Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
54.0%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL07 (#68 F.West Jr.; #17 T.Chikere), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
53.7%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL05 (#0 P.Ashe; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
53.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 3 yards gain to the UL02 (#68 F.West Jr.; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
55.4%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Dickey rush right for 2 yards loss to the UL04 (#3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
50.1%
(05:08) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 05:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5755% → 79%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
55.0%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UL48 (#0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
58.3%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ASU37 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.0%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU37 (#98 S.Woods)Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
58.4%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 L.Strother rush left for 9 yards gain to the ASU28 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
58.4%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU24 (#30 G.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
60.8%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the ASU21 (#4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
60.6%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #88 C.Jensen caught at ASU20, for 2 yards to the ASU19 (#3 N.Flores; #10 T.Carter)Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
57.7%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU13 (#3 N.Flores), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
78.9%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 13 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4927% → 62%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.1%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU27 (#10 A.Demery)Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+29
72.9%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UL44, for 29 yards to the UL44 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
68.8%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to UL30 broken up by #10 A.DemerySimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
69.1%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL38 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+14
69.4%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UL35, for 14 yards to the UL24 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
66.7%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #11 T.Little caught at UL16, for 18 yards to the UL06 (#3 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.0%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:4749% → 64%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
49.0%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #83 B.Chappell caught at UL44, for 23 yards to the UL48 (#15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
52.8%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Chaney rush right for 13 yards gain to the ASU39 (#15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
51.6%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU34 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
54.9%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU28 (#92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
54.6%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #88 C.Jensen caught at ASU30, for 6 yards to the ASU22 (#0 D.Henderson; #94 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
54.4%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU22 (#20 T.Grant)Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+10
51.2%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #87 K.Brooks caught at ASU16, for 10 yards to the ASU12 (#9 K.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
52.4%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU10 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
51.9%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU08 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
48.7%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #88 C.Jensen thrown to ASU00 QB hurried by #9 K.MooreSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
63.5%
(05:38) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 05:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2748% → 44%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
52.4%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU36 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
49.7%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to ASU38Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-2
52.3%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU34, for 2 yards loss to the ASU34 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
55.6%
(03:57) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 52 yards to the UL14 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL14 PENALTY UL Holding (#22 K.Malone) 7 yards from UL14 to UL07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
19 plays · 72 yds · 3:4059% → 96%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
59.1%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL09 (#10 T.Carter)Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
58.4%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 7 yards gain to the UL16 (#6 A.McGhee), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
57.1%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL18 (#92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
59.4%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 9 yards gain to the UL27 (#16 J.Drew), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+6
62.2%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL33 (#0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
60.3%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush left for 8 yards gain to the UL41 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+12
64.1%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #4 T.Chaney caught at ASU50, for 12 yards to the ASU47 (#5 F.Hamilton; #0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
65.8%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #88 C.Jensen caught at ASU43, for 5 yards to the ASU42 (#16 J.Drew), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
66.2%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush left for 7 yards gain to the ASU35 (#9 K.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
68.5%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 14 yards gain to the ASU21, out of bounds at ASU21 PENALTY UL Holding (#77 J.Isom) 10 yards from ASU35 to ASU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+10
63.1%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ASU35 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+15
93.8%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ASU30 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
94.6%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #87 K.Brooks caught at ASU21, for 14 yards to the ASU21, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
95.2%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #10 R.Babineaux caught at ASU21, for 1 yard to the ASU20 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+37
96.3%
Tony Sterner 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:48
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
-28.7
TD · Q4 14:54
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 13 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
+21.3
FG · Q4 5:38
(05:38) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 05:38
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com