2026 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7Projected score
TROY28
ARST26
TROY by 2
Win chance
TROY53%
TROY 53%ARST 47%
Projected total
55pts
Combined points
Explore the range of outcomes
53%
chance Troy wins
47% Arkansas State wins
← ARST winsTROY wins →
-35-21-7+7+21+35
- 50% of outcomes
- ARST by 9 to TROY by 11
- 80% of outcomes
- ARST by 20 to TROY by 21
- 90% of outcomes
- ARST by 27 to TROY by 26
- Median
- TROY by 1
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.