2026 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
ARST29
USM28
ARST by 1 · market ARST by 7
Win chance
ARST49%
ARST 49%USM 51%
Projected total
58pts
Market total 62.5
Explore the range of outcomes
49%
chance Arkansas State wins
51% Southern Miss wins
← USM winsARST wins →
-35-21-7+7+21
- 50% of outcomes
- USM by 8 to ARST by 10
- 80% of outcomes
- USM by 18 to ARST by 20
- 90% of outcomes
- USM by 26 to ARST by 24
- Median
- Even
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.