Arkansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0420th
  Defense−0.0493rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.2%13th
  Defense36.1%94th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2362nd
  Defense+1.1086th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.082nd
  Defense−0.0894th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2369th
  Defense+0.0386th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.4%15th
  Defense39.5%97th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.9%20th
  Defense30.4%80th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.311st
  Defense2.5087th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.7%2nd
  Defense23.3%84th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.2%9th
  Defense21.9%98th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TOL
2. L
   AUB
3. L
   USU
4. L
   CARK
5. W
   GASO
6. W
   USA
7. W
   ULM
8. W
   GAST
9. W
   NMSU
10. W
    TROY
11. L
    UL
12. W
    TXST
13. W
    UCF

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas State.

Players, 2016

1. Justice HansenQB327 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 59th of 218 QBs
   1.27WAR0.76 to 1.81
2. Warren WandRB187 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 75th of 347 RBs
   0.42WAR0.25 to 0.62
3. Johnston WhiteRB76 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 118th of 347 RBs
   0.31WAR0.23 to 0.38
4. Damon FonchamP58 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 23rd of 82 punters
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.30
5. Chad VoytikQB66 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 170th of 218 QBs
   0.17WAR0.02 to 0.31
6. Kendall SandersWR42 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 167th of 417 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
7. Dijon PaschalWR31 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 187th of 417 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.16
8. J.D. HoustonPK14 plays · +0.286 pts/play · 81st of 116 kickers
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  47147176th of 128Roster talent: 471, 76th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12512588th of 128Recruiting: 125, 88th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%111th of 128Returning production: 37%, 111th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.2−1.271st of 128SP+ rating: −1.2, 71st of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ULQ3 8:54 4th & 3 at UL 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
2. at USUQ4 7:28 4th & 5 at USU 5, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at ULQ2 0:45 4th & 1 at UL 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. at GASTQ2 5:04 4th & 16 at GAST 31, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
5. at TROYQ2 11:30 4th & 1 at ARST 26, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs GASOQ2 14:56 4th & 3 at GASO 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs NMSUQ3 5:44 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at UCFQ2 12:51 4th & 4 at midfield, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

42nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TOL
2. L

   AUB
3. L

   USU
4. L

   CARK
5. W

   GASO
6. W

   USA
7. W

   ULM
8. W

   GAST
9. W

   NMSU
10. W

    TROY
11. L

    UL
12. W

    TXST
13. W

    UCF

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at Arkansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.90
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.29

Game by game

• TOLL 10-31 vs TOL54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −54, Clock −1
• AUBL 14-51 at AUB13% → 0%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −15
• USUL 20-34 at USU24% → 1%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −1
• CARKL 23-28 vs CARK85% → 18%Before kickoff +35 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −41, Clock −3
• GASOW 27-26 vs GASO27% → 78%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +15, Possession & field position +2
• USAW 17-7 vs USA61% → 99%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +37
• ULMW 51-10 vs ULM84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +19
• GASTW 31-16 at GAST55% → 99%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +49, Clock +3
• NMSUW 41-22 vs NMSU90% → 98%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +16
• TROYW 35-3 at TROY26% → 100%Before kickoff −24 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +67, Clock +2
• ULL 19-24 at UL63% → 5%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −41, Possession & field position +1
• TXSTW 36-14 at TXST91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• UCFW 31-13 at UCF57% → 98%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Arkansas State's side.

Closest call

ARST 30-29 APP (2025) - Arkansas State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.