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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Utah
    8-4 · resume score 13.3 · schedule 3.0
    Resume #40
    CFP #19
  • Navy
    9-4 · resume score 16.4 · schedule 3.1
    Resume #36
    CFP #25
  • LSU
    7-4 · resume score 18.1 · schedule 3.3
    Resume #30
    CFP #20

Resume says higher

  • Boise State
    10-2 · resume score 53.0 · schedule 2.7
    Resume #13
    CFP unranked
  • Western Michigan
    13-0 · resume score 89.7 · schedule 2.0
    Resume #4
    CFP #15
  • South Florida
    10-2 · resume score 46.4 · schedule 2.5
    Resume #15
    CFP unranked

Every FBS team, 2016

128

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Alabama13-099.421
2Ohio State11-195.263
3Clemson12-190.712
4Western Michigan13-089.71515
5Washington12-187.444
6Penn State11-278.075
7Oklahoma10-268.457
8Michigan10-266.6106
9Colorado10-362.51710
10Wisconsin10-361.798
11West Virginia10-258.51816
12USC9-355.139
13Boise State10-253.0--
14Florida State9-347.4811
15South Florida10-246.419-
16Stanford9-344.01218
17Nebraska9-338.2--
18Florida8-433.81417
19Louisville9-330.72113
20Western Kentucky10-327.9--
21Oklahoma State9-327.71112
22Auburn8-427.72414
23Tulsa9-325.5--
24Toledo9-323.9--
25Houston9-323.5--
26Temple10-323.4-24
27Tennessee8-422.12221
28Pittsburgh8-421.8-23
29Virginia Tech9-418.31622
30LSU7-418.11320
31Texas A&M8-417.8--
32Troy9-317.5--
33Miami8-416.920-
34App State9-316.5--
35Georgia Tech8-416.4--
37Kansas State8-415.3--
38Old Dominion9-314.3--
39Washington State8-413.3--
40Utah8-413.32319
41Air Force9-313.1--
42San Diego State10-312.225-
43Minnesota8-411.1--
44Iowa8-410.7--
45North Carolina8-410.2--
46Memphis8-48.1--
47Arkansas7-57.5--
48BYU8-46.6--
49Idaho8-46.0--
50Kentucky7-55.1--
51Wyoming8-54.4--
52Middle Tennessee8-43.3--
53Georgia7-53.2--
54Colorado State7-52.6--
55Louisiana Tech8-52.6--
56New Mexico8-42.3--
57Vanderbilt6-61.7--
58Eastern Michigan7-51.5--
59Ohio8-51.4--
60Northwestern6-61.2--
61Ole Miss5-71.1--
62NC State6-61.1--
63Maryland6-60.8--
64South Carolina6-60.8--
65TCU6-60.5--
66Army7-50.5--
67Baylor6-60.4--
68Boston College6-60.4--
69Arkansas State7-50.4--
70Indiana6-60.4--
71Wake Forest6-60.4--
72Central Michigan6-60.3--
73UCF6-60.3--
74California5-70.3--
75Mississippi State5-70.3--
76Arizona State5-70.2--
77Texas5-70.1--
78UTSA6-60.1--
79Southern Miss6-60.1--
80SMU5-70.1--
81Louisiana6-60.1--
82Texas Tech5-70.1--
83Miami (OH)6-60.1--
84South Alabama6-60.1--
85Oregon4-80.1--
86Georgia Southern5-70.1--
87Akron5-70.1--
88UCLA4-80.1--
89Hawai'i6-7<0.1--
90Northern Illinois5-7<0.1--
91Syracuse4-8<0.1--
92Oregon State4-8<0.1--
93Duke4-8<0.1--
94Missouri4-8<0.1--
95North Texas5-7<0.1--
96Notre Dame4-8<0.1--
97UL Monroe4-8<0.1--
98Cincinnati4-8<0.1--
99Bowling Green4-8<0.1--
100San José State4-8<0.1--
101Tulane4-8<0.1--
102Arizona3-9<0.1--
103Utah State3-9<0.1--
104Michigan State3-9<0.1--
105Nevada5-7<0.1--
106Illinois3-9<0.1--
107UNLV4-8<0.1--
108Ball State4-8<0.1--
109Charlotte4-8<0.1--
110New Mexico State3-9<0.1--
111Iowa State3-9<0.1--
112Florida International4-8<0.1--
113Purdue3-9<0.1--
114East Carolina3-9<0.1--
115Kent State3-9<0.1--
116Rutgers2-10<0.1--
117UTEP4-8<0.1--
118Georgia State3-9<0.1--
119Kansas2-10<0.1--
120Florida Atlantic3-9<0.1--
121Rice3-9<0.1--
122UConn3-9<0.1--
123Marshall3-9<0.1--
124Virginia2-10<0.1--
125Texas State2-10<0.1--
126Massachusetts2-10<0.1--
127Buffalo2-10<0.1--
128Fresno State1-11<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com