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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Arizona
    9-3 · resume score 14.7 · schedule 2.2
    Resume #31
    CFP #11
  • Clemson
    8-4 · resume score 14.2 · schedule 3.0
    Resume #32
    CFP #20
  • Oklahoma State
    9-4 · resume score 21.1 · schedule 3.4
    Resume #26
    CFP #16

Resume says higher

  • Liberty
    13-0 · resume score 87.4 · schedule 1.8
    Resume #8
    CFP #25
  • James Madison
    11-1 · resume score 74.7 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #10
    CFP unranked
  • Troy
    11-2 · resume score 52.3 · schedule 2.7
    Resume #15
    CFP unranked

Every FBS team, 2023

133

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Washington13-098.922
2Michigan13-098.111
3Florida State13-096.666
4Alabama12-194.055
5Texas12-193.933
6Ohio State11-190.71010
7Georgia12-187.944
8Liberty13-087.42525
9Ole Miss10-275.6-9
10James Madison11-174.7--
11Oregon11-266.966
12Oklahoma10-266.81515
13Penn State10-263.61313
14Missouri10-263.088
15Troy11-252.3--
16SMU11-249.52222
17LSU9-349.11212
18Toledo11-246.9--
19Tulane11-243.4--
20Iowa10-339.22424
21Miami (OH)11-237.6--
22Louisville10-334.21919
23Notre Dame9-332.61414
24Kansas State8-426.31818
25NC State9-323.82121
26Oklahoma State9-421.11616
27Tennessee8-418.91717
28Memphis9-318.6--
29Oregon State8-417.9--
30Utah8-415.3--
31Arizona9-314.71111
32Clemson8-414.22020
33Kansas8-412.92323
34West Virginia8-49.8--
35Ohio9-38.6--
36North Carolina8-47.4--
37Iowa State7-57.0--
38New Mexico State10-46.6--
39Wyoming8-46.5--
40USC7-56.2--
41UNLV9-45.8--
42Air Force8-44.8--
43Duke7-54.5--
44Kentucky7-54.0--
45Boise State8-54.0--
46Miami7-53.9--
47Fresno State8-43.3--
48UTSA8-43.3--
49Texas A&M7-53.2--
50Jacksonville State8-43.1--
51Bowling Green7-53.0--
52App State8-52.8--
53Maryland7-52.0--
54Coastal Carolina7-52.0--
55Texas Tech6-61.6--
56Northwestern7-51.6--
57Auburn6-61.6--
58San José State7-51.5--
59Rutgers6-61.4--
60Western Kentucky7-51.4--
61UCLA7-51.3--
62Wisconsin7-50.9--
63Georgia Tech6-60.8--
64UCF6-60.8--
65Texas State7-50.8--
66Georgia State6-60.7--
67California6-60.6--
68Marshall6-60.5--
69Old Dominion6-60.4--
70Florida5-70.4--
71South Alabama6-60.4--
72Syracuse6-60.3--
73Boston College6-60.3--
74Utah State6-60.3--
75Virginia Tech6-60.3--
76BYU5-70.2--
77Arkansas State6-60.2--
78Minnesota5-70.2--
79TCU5-70.2--
80Georgia Southern6-60.2--
81South Carolina5-70.1--
82South Florida6-60.1--
83Mississippi State5-70.19-
84Rice6-60.1--
85Illinois5-70.1--
86Washington State5-70.1--
87Army6-60.1--
88Louisiana6-6<0.1--
89Nebraska5-7<0.1--
90Michigan State4-8<0.1--
91Wake Forest4-8<0.1--
92Houston4-8<0.1--
93Central Michigan5-7<0.1--
94Purdue4-8<0.1--
95Eastern Michigan6-6<0.1--
96Northern Illinois6-6<0.1--
97Colorado4-8<0.1--
98Western Michigan4-8<0.1--
99North Texas5-7<0.1--
101Colorado State5-7<0.1--
102Ball State4-8<0.1--
103Arkansas4-8<0.1--
104Tulsa4-8<0.1--
105Virginia3-9<0.1--
106UAB4-8<0.1--
107Stanford3-9<0.1--
108Middle Tennessee4-8<0.1--
109San Diego State4-8<0.1--
110New Mexico4-8<0.1--
111Massachusetts3-9<0.1--
112Hawai'i5-8<0.1--
113Florida Atlantic4-8<0.1--
114Baylor3-9<0.1--
115Pittsburgh3-9<0.1--
116Indiana3-9<0.1--
117Southern Miss3-9<0.1--
118Cincinnati3-9<0.1--
119Arizona State3-9<0.1--
120Florida International4-8<0.1--
121Buffalo3-9<0.1--
122UTEP3-9<0.1--
123Vanderbilt2-10<0.1--
124UConn3-9<0.1--
125Louisiana Tech3-9<0.1--
126Charlotte3-9<0.1--
127UL Monroe2-10<0.1--
128Temple3-9<0.1--
129Sam Houston3-9<0.1--
130East Carolina2-10<0.1--
131Nevada2-10<0.1--
132Akron2-10<0.1--
133Kent State1-11<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com