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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Texas
    9-4 · resume score 24.5 · schedule 3.5
    Resume #29
    CFP #15
  • Northwestern
    8-5 · resume score 13.5 · schedule 3.9
    Resume #36
    CFP #22
  • Mississippi State
    8-4 · resume score 24.0 · schedule 3.6
    Resume #30
    CFP #18

Resume says higher

  • Cincinnati
    10-2 · resume score 56.0 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #11
    CFP unranked
  • Fresno State
    11-2 · resume score 60.2 · schedule 2.9
    Resume #9
    CFP #21
  • App State
    10-2 · resume score 47.6 · schedule 2.5
    Resume #14
    CFP unranked

Every FBS team, 2018

130

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Alabama13-098.821
2Clemson13-098.712
3Notre Dame12-098.253
4UCF12-092.9118
5Oklahoma12-191.744
6Ohio State12-189.536
7Georgia11-288.175
8Michigan10-279.1147
9Fresno State11-260.21821
10LSU9-357.0611
11Cincinnati10-256.024-
12Washington State10-252.81013
13Syracuse9-348.41520
14App State10-247.6--
15Kentucky9-346.21214
16Washington10-345.5139
17Army10-245.519-
18Boise State10-343.32325
19Florida9-341.8710
20Utah State10-240.822-
21Penn State9-339.91712
22Texas A&M8-436.31619
23Utah9-430.3-17
24West Virginia8-329.82016
25Missouri8-429.7-23
26NC State9-325.7--
27Stanford8-425.7--
28Buffalo10-324.5--
29Texas9-424.5915
30Mississippi State8-424.0-18
31Troy9-321.3--
32Georgia Southern9-320.2--
33UAB10-317.8--
34Iowa State8-415.5-24
35Pittsburgh7-614.4--
36Northwestern8-513.52122
37Duke7-513.1--
38Auburn7-511.9--
39Iowa8-410.425-
40Oregon8-410.0--
41South Carolina7-59.2--
42Boston College7-58.7--
43Michigan State7-58.0--
44Temple8-46.8--
45Marshall8-46.0--
46Northern Illinois8-55.7--
47North Texas9-35.4--
48Arkansas State8-45.3--
49Georgia Tech7-55.0--
50Wisconsin7-54.9--
51Arizona State7-54.8--
52Miami7-54.4--
53Middle Tennessee8-54.0--
54Ohio8-43.4--
55Houston8-43.2--
56Memphis8-53.0--
57Virginia7-52.8--
58Louisiana7-62.5--
59Hawai'i8-52.5--
60California7-52.3--
61Vanderbilt6-62.1--
62Purdue6-62.1--
63TCU6-62.0--
64San Diego State7-52.0--
65Wake Forest6-61.8--
66South Florida7-51.8--
67Florida International8-41.6--
68Louisiana Tech7-51.6--
69Western Michigan7-51.2--
70Nevada7-51.2--
71Oklahoma State6-61.2--
72Minnesota6-61.1--
73BYU6-61.0--
74Eastern Michigan7-50.9--
75Florida State5-70.9--
76Baylor6-60.8--
77Virginia Tech6-60.8--
78Toledo7-50.8--
79Tennessee5-70.7--
80Tulane6-60.6--
81Maryland5-70.6--
82Wyoming6-60.4--
83Miami (OH)6-60.4--
84Indiana5-70.3--
85USC5-70.3--
86Southern Miss6-50.2--
87Texas Tech5-70.2--
88Ole Miss5-70.2--
89UL Monroe6-60.2--
90Kansas State5-70.2--
91SMU5-70.1--
92Florida Atlantic5-70.1--
93Liberty6-60.1--
94Coastal Carolina5-70.1--
95Air Force5-70.1--
96Colorado5-70.1--
97Charlotte5-7<0.1--
98Nebraska4-8<0.1--
99Arizona5-7<0.1--
100UCLA3-9<0.1--
101Akron4-8<0.1--
102Illinois4-8<0.1--
103Massachusetts4-8<0.1--
105Ball State4-8<0.1--
106UNLV4-8<0.1--
107Old Dominion4-8<0.1--
108South Alabama3-9<0.1--
109Kansas3-9<0.1--
110East Carolina3-9<0.1--
111Louisville2-10<0.1--
112New Mexico3-9<0.1--
113North Carolina2-9<0.1--
114Tulsa3-9<0.1--
115Oregon State2-10<0.1--
116UTSA3-9<0.1--
117Arkansas2-10<0.1--
118New Mexico State3-9<0.1--
119Colorado State3-9<0.1--
120Bowling Green3-9<0.1--
121Georgia State2-10<0.1--
122Texas State3-9<0.1--
123Western Kentucky3-9<0.1--
124Kent State2-10<0.1--
125Rutgers1-11<0.1--
126Rice2-11<0.1--
127San José State1-11<0.1--
128UConn1-11<0.1--
129Central Michigan1-11<0.1--
130UTEP1-11<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com