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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Baylor
    9-3 · resume score 28.4 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #27
    CFP #17
  • Tennessee
    8-4 · resume score 22.9 · schedule 3.5
    Resume #33
    CFP #23
  • USC
    8-5 · resume score 22.4 · schedule 4.3
    Resume #35
    CFP #25

Resume says higher

  • Houston
    12-1 · resume score 69.8 · schedule 2.2
    Resume #9
    CFP #18
  • Toledo
    9-2 · resume score 52.2 · schedule 2.6
    Resume #17
    CFP unranked
  • Navy
    10-2 · resume score 58.8 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #13
    CFP #21

Every FBS team, 2015

128

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Clemson13-098.721
2Michigan State12-195.763
3Alabama12-194.912
4Oklahoma11-188.454
5Iowa12-186.895
6Ohio State11-184.247
7Notre Dame10-277.6118
8Stanford11-273.236
9Houston12-169.8818
10Oklahoma State10-262.92016
11Northwestern10-262.82313
12TCU10-260.1711
14North Carolina11-257.81510
15Florida State10-256.0149
16Florida10-353.02519
17Toledo9-252.2--
18Western Kentucky11-249.524-
19LSU8-348.21620
20Oregon9-346.81915
21Ole Miss9-345.81012
22Memphis9-344.9--
23Michigan9-343.31214
24App State10-241.4--
25Utah9-336.61722
26Temple10-331.4-24
27Baylor9-328.41317
28Bowling Green10-327.6--
29Georgia9-326.8--
30Mississippi State8-426.7--
31Miami8-425.8--
32BYU9-325.4--
33Tennessee8-422.92223
34Wisconsin9-322.921-
35USC8-522.4-25
36Pittsburgh8-420.4--
37Texas A&M8-417.1--
38Arkansas State9-316.1--
39UCLA8-415.5--
40Washington State8-414.8--
41California7-514.7--
42Marshall9-313.7--
43San Diego State10-312.6--
44Arkansas7-510.2--
45Western Michigan7-58.5--
46Southern Miss9-48.2--
47South Florida8-48.2--
48Penn State7-58.0--
49Ohio8-46.5--
50Air Force8-56.2--
51Louisiana Tech8-46.1--
52Texas Tech7-56.1--
53Boise State8-45.8--
54Georgia Southern8-45.7--
55Louisville7-54.4--
56Cincinnati7-54.3--
57Northern Illinois8-53.9--
58NC State7-53.5--
59West Virginia7-53.5--
60Auburn6-62.3--
61Central Michigan7-52.0--
62Middle Tennessee7-51.6--
63Washington6-61.6--
64Duke7-51.4--
65Utah State6-61.3--
66Arizona State6-61.2--
67Indiana6-61.0--
68Arizona6-60.9--
69Akron7-50.9--
70Kansas State6-60.8--
71Virginia Tech6-60.7--
72Colorado State7-50.6--
73Minnesota5-70.6--
74New Mexico7-50.6--
75UConn6-60.6--
76Tulsa6-60.5--
77Texas5-70.4--
78Nebraska5-70.3--
79Illinois5-70.3--
80Missouri5-70.3--
81Vanderbilt4-80.1--
82Georgia State6-60.1--
83East Carolina5-70.1--
84South Alabama5-70.1--
85Nevada6-60.1--
86Virginia4-8<0.1--
87Syracuse4-8<0.1--
88Kentucky5-7<0.1--
89Buffalo5-7<0.1--
90Maryland3-9<0.1--
91San José State5-7<0.1--
92Florida International5-7<0.1--
93Rutgers4-8<0.1--
94Rice5-7<0.1--
95Old Dominion5-7<0.1--
96UTEP5-7<0.1--
97Georgia Tech3-9<0.1--
98Iowa State3-9<0.1--
99Colorado4-9<0.1--
100Troy4-8<0.1--
101Idaho4-8<0.1--
102South Carolina3-9<0.1--
103Wake Forest3-9<0.1--
104Ball State3-9<0.1--
105Louisiana4-8<0.1--
106Fresno State3-9<0.1--
107Boston College3-9<0.1--
108Kent State3-9<0.1--
109New Mexico State3-9<0.1--
110Purdue2-10<0.1--
111Florida Atlantic3-9<0.1--
112UNLV3-9<0.1--
113Oregon State2-10<0.1--
114UTSA3-9<0.1--
115Texas State3-9<0.1--
116Miami (OH)3-9<0.1--
117Tulane3-9<0.1--
118Massachusetts3-9<0.1--
119Hawai'i3-10<0.1--
120SMU2-10<0.1--
121Wyoming2-10<0.1--
122Charlotte2-10<0.1--
123North Texas1-11<0.1--
124UL Monroe2-11<0.1--
125Army2-10<0.1--
126Eastern Michigan1-11<0.1--
127UCF0-12<0.1--
128Kansas0-12<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com