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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • NC State
    8-4 · resume score 16.2 · schedule 3.1
    Resume #32
    CFP #23
  • Utah
    10-3 · resume score 47.6 · schedule 3.5
    Resume #16
    CFP #8
  • Florida State
    9-3 · resume score 34.3 · schedule 3.0
    Resume #21
    CFP #13

Resume says higher

  • Troy
    11-2 · resume score 64.5 · schedule 3.1
    Resume #12
    CFP #24
  • UTSA
    11-2 · resume score 56.8 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #13
    CFP #25
  • Tulane
    11-2 · resume score 70.3 · schedule 3.3
    Resume #9
    CFP #16

Every FBS team, 2022

131

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Georgia13-099.111
2Michigan13-098.532
3TCU12-195.423
4Ohio State11-191.544
5Tennessee10-283.766
6USC11-282.11210
7Alabama10-276.055
8Penn State10-273.9711
9Tulane11-270.3916
10Clemson11-267.4137
11Kansas State10-365.1149
12Troy11-264.51924
13UTSA11-256.8-25
14Washington10-251.4812
15Oregon9-350.41515
16Utah10-347.6108
17LSU9-447.21617
18Oregon State9-345.91714
19South Alabama10-242.8--
20Texas8-436.52520
21Florida State9-334.31113
22Mississippi State8-433.22022
23South Carolina8-431.52319
24Coastal Carolina9-329.1--
25Cincinnati9-327.4--
26UCLA9-326.92118
27North Carolina9-425.0--
28Ole Miss8-423.6--
29Notre Dame8-420.41821
30UCF9-419.2--
31Boise State9-416.3--
32NC State8-416.2-23
33James Madison8-314.9--
34Marshall8-414.1--
35Purdue8-513.0--
36Fresno State9-411.924-
37Texas Tech7-511.7--
38Illinois8-411.6--
39Minnesota8-411.4--
40Air Force9-310.9--
41Louisville7-59.9--
42Syracuse7-58.9--
43Oklahoma State7-58.4--
44Ohio9-48.3--
45SMU7-58.1--
46Kentucky7-58.0--
47Maryland7-57.0--
48Pittsburgh8-46.422-
49Iowa7-56.2--
50Wake Forest7-56.0--
51Kansas6-65.5--
52Houston7-55.0--
53Washington State7-54.9--
54Liberty8-44.9--
55BYU7-54.3--
56Florida6-64.3--
57Missouri6-64.0--
58Arkansas6-63.6--
59San José State7-43.4--
60Baylor6-63.3--
61Oklahoma6-63.0--
62Wyoming7-52.9--
63East Carolina7-52.7--
64Western Kentucky8-52.5--
65Toledo8-52.5--
66Duke8-42.5--
67Eastern Michigan8-42.5--
68San Diego State7-52.0--
69Wisconsin6-61.4--
70Auburn5-71.2--
71Georgia Southern6-61.1--
72Middle Tennessee7-51.1--
73North Texas7-60.9--
74Michigan State5-70.9--
75West Virginia5-70.9--
76Georgia Tech5-70.8--
77Memphis6-60.7--
78Bowling Green6-60.6--
79Vanderbilt5-70.6--
80Southern Miss6-60.6--
81Utah State6-60.4--
82UConn6-60.4--
83Louisiana6-60.4--
84App State6-60.4--
85Arizona5-70.4--
86Buffalo6-60.3--
87Army6-60.3--
88UAB6-60.3--
89Kent State5-70.3--
90Texas A&M5-70.2--
91Miami (OH)6-60.1--
92Iowa State4-80.1--
93Indiana4-80.1--
94Miami5-70.1--
95Rice5-70.1--
96Tulsa5-70.1--
98UL Monroe4-80.1--
99UNLV5-70.1--
100Western Michigan5-70.1--
101Ball State5-7<0.1--
102Rutgers4-8<0.1--
103Florida Atlantic5-7<0.1--
104UTEP5-7<0.1--
105Stanford3-9<0.1--
106California4-8<0.1--
107Georgia State4-8<0.1--
108New Mexico State6-6<0.1--
109Nebraska4-8<0.1--
110Virginia3-7<0.1--
111Central Michigan4-8<0.1--
112Texas State4-8<0.1--
113Boston College3-9<0.1--
114Arizona State3-9<0.1--
115Florida International4-8<0.1--
116Old Dominion3-9<0.1--
117Virginia Tech3-8<0.1--
118Louisiana Tech3-9<0.1--
119Arkansas State3-9<0.1--
120Colorado State3-9<0.1--
121Colorado1-11<0.1--
122Northern Illinois3-9<0.1--
123Charlotte3-9<0.1--
124Temple3-9<0.1--
125Hawai'i3-10<0.1--
126New Mexico2-10<0.1--
127Nevada2-10<0.1--
128Akron2-10<0.1--
129Northwestern1-11<0.1--
130South Florida1-11<0.1--
131Massachusetts1-11<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com