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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Utah
    10-3 · resume score 36.8 · schedule 3.1
    Resume #22
    CFP #11
  • NC State
    9-3 · resume score 23.5 · schedule 2.6
    Resume #27
    CFP #18
  • Kentucky
    9-3 · resume score 19.1 · schedule 2.5
    Resume #30
    CFP #22

Resume says higher

  • UTSA
    12-1 · resume score 74.4 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #7
    CFP unranked
  • Louisiana
    12-1 · resume score 70.0 · schedule 2.3
    Resume #8
    CFP #23
  • San Diego State
    11-2 · resume score 53.8 · schedule 2.7
    Resume #14
    CFP #24

Every FBS team, 2021

130

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Cincinnati13-096.844
2Alabama12-193.021
3Georgia12-191.813
4Michigan12-190.432
5Notre Dame11-180.785
6Oklahoma State11-276.379
7UTSA12-174.4--
8Louisiana12-170.01623
9Baylor11-269.557
10Michigan State10-268.1910
11Ole Miss10-266.2118
12Ohio State10-263.566
13BYU10-262.81913
14San Diego State11-253.82524
15Oregon10-352.92214
16Oklahoma10-252.71016
17Pittsburgh11-246.11312
18Houston11-244.21720
19Iowa10-342.72315
20App State10-342.1--
21Wake Forest10-340.61517
22Utah10-336.81211
23Clemson9-334.11419
24Utah State10-326.324-
25Arkansas8-426.22121
26Fresno State9-324.0--
27NC State9-323.52018
28Wisconsin8-421.3--
29Purdue8-420.2--
30Kentucky9-319.11822
31Air Force9-318.5--
32Coastal Carolina10-217.3--
33Texas A&M8-411.8-25
34Northern Illinois9-410.1--
35Army8-410.0--
36SMU8-49.8--
37Minnesota8-49.2--
38Boise State7-58.9--
39Mississippi State7-58.6--
40Arizona State8-48.5--
41Nevada8-47.7--
42Penn State7-57.7--
43UCLA8-46.8--
44Tennessee7-56.1--
45UAB8-45.9--
46UCF8-45.5--
47Miami7-55.2--
48Central Michigan8-45.0--
49Auburn6-65.0--
50Iowa State7-54.9--
51East Carolina7-54.4--
52LSU6-64.1--
53Kansas State7-53.3--
54Washington State7-53.1--
55Oregon State7-53.1--
56Western Michigan7-53.0--
57Georgia State7-52.8--
58Liberty7-52.3--
59Western Kentucky8-51.9--
60Maryland6-61.7--
61Marshall7-51.4--
62South Carolina6-61.2--
63Texas Tech6-61.1--
64Virginia6-61.1--
65Eastern Michigan7-51.0--
66West Virginia6-61.0--
67Missouri6-60.9--
68Tulsa6-60.8--
69North Carolina6-60.7--
70Louisville6-60.7--
71Texas5-70.7--
72Florida6-60.6--
73Kent State7-60.6--
74UTEP7-50.5--
75Miami (OH)6-60.4--
76Toledo7-50.4--
77Virginia Tech6-60.3--
78Ball State6-60.3--
79Memphis6-60.2--
80TCU5-70.2--
81Wyoming6-60.2--
83Florida State5-70.1--
84Illinois5-70.1--
85Boston College6-60.1--
86Rutgers5-70.1--
87Syracuse5-70.1--
88Middle Tennessee6-60.1--
89North Texas6-60.1--
90Hawai'i6-70.1--
91Old Dominion6-6<0.1--
92Troy5-7<0.1--
93USC4-8<0.1--
94California5-7<0.1--
95Florida Atlantic5-7<0.1--
96San José State5-7<0.1--
97Colorado4-8<0.1--
98South Alabama5-7<0.1--
99UL Monroe4-8<0.1--
100Nebraska3-9<0.1--
101Rice4-8<0.1--
102Stanford3-9<0.1--
103Washington4-8<0.1--
104Charlotte5-7<0.1--
105Georgia Tech3-9<0.1--
106Indiana2-10<0.1--
107Buffalo4-8<0.1--
108Bowling Green4-8<0.1--
109Texas State4-8<0.1--
110Georgia Southern3-9<0.1--
111Northwestern3-9<0.1--
112Tulane2-10<0.1--
113Colorado State3-9<0.1--
114New Mexico3-9<0.1--
115Louisiana Tech3-9<0.1--
116Temple3-9<0.1--
117Kansas2-10<0.1--
118South Florida2-10<0.1--
119UNLV2-10<0.1--
120Ohio3-9<0.1--
121Duke3-9<0.1--
122Southern Miss3-9<0.1--
123Arkansas State2-10<0.1--
124Vanderbilt2-10<0.1--
125New Mexico State2-10<0.1--
126Akron2-10<0.1--
127Arizona1-11<0.1--
128Florida International1-11<0.1--
129UConn1-11<0.1--
130Massachusetts1-11<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com