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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Texas
    6-3 · resume score 14.3 · schedule 2.2
    Resume #40
    CFP #20
  • North Carolina
    8-3 · resume score 16.9 · schedule 2.3
    Resume #32
    CFP #13
  • Oregon
    4-2 · resume score 14.6 · schedule 1.5
    Resume #38
    CFP #25

Resume says higher

  • San José State
    7-0 · resume score 80.7 · schedule 1.4
    Resume #9
    CFP #22
  • Louisiana
    9-1 · resume score 81.1 · schedule 2.6
    Resume #8
    CFP #19
  • Coastal Carolina
    11-0 · resume score 95.5 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #2
    CFP #12

Every FBS team, 2020

127

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Alabama11-098.811
2Coastal Carolina11-095.51412
3Notre Dame10-191.454
4Cincinnati9-090.788
5Clemson10-185.732
6Texas A&M8-184.945
7Ohio State6-084.123
8Louisiana9-181.11519
9San José State7-080.72422
10BYU10-174.61116
11Indiana6-171.31211
12Miami8-261.52218
13Georgia7-256.479
14USC5-149.02117
15Tulsa6-248.6-24
16Oklahoma8-245.966
17Florida8-343.9137
18Iowa State8-343.5910
19Ball State6-140.923-
20Northwestern6-240.81014
21Liberty9-138.317-
22Army9-231.5--
23Boise State5-230.7--
24Stanford4-228.1--
25Iowa6-226.11615
26Oklahoma State7-325.62021
27Colorado4-124.4--
28NC State8-323.2-23
29Marshall7-218.2--
30Buffalo5-117.725-
31Auburn6-417.2--
32North Carolina8-316.91813
33SMU7-316.4--
34UCF6-315.6--
35Memphis7-315.3--
36App State8-315.1--
37Nevada6-214.7--
38Oregon4-214.6-25
39Miami (OH)2-114.5--
40Texas6-314.31920
41UAB6-311.1--
42Utah3-28.7--
43Washington3-18.0--
44Wisconsin3-37.8--
45Kent State3-17.3--
46TCU6-45.8--
47Western Michigan4-23.9--
48Toledo4-23.8--
49Missouri5-53.7--
50Houston3-43.4--
51Georgia State5-43.3--
52UTSA7-43.3--
53Boston College6-53.1--
54Maryland2-32.8--
55Wake Forest4-42.6--
56LSU5-52.6--
57Florida Atlantic5-32.4--
58Arizona State2-22.3--
59Pittsburgh6-52.2--
60Louisiana Tech5-42.1--
61Air Force3-32.0--
62West Virginia5-42.0--
63Tulane6-51.9--
64Georgia Southern7-51.6--
65Washington State1-31.5--
66Virginia5-51.5--
67Virginia Tech5-61.4--
68Hawai'i4-41.4--
69San Diego State4-41.4--
70Ole Miss4-51.1--
71Central Michigan3-31.0--
72Penn State4-51.0--
73Ohio2-10.9--
74UCLA3-40.9--
75Nebraska3-50.7--
76Michigan State2-50.7--
77Minnesota3-40.7--
78Arkansas3-70.5--
79Colorado State1-30.5--
80Michigan2-40.5--
81Kentucky4-60.5--
82Rice2-30.4--
83Fresno State3-30.4--
84Kansas State4-60.3--
85California1-30.3--
86Western Kentucky5-60.2--
87Texas Tech4-60.2--
88Troy5-60.2--
89Purdue2-40.1--
90Mississippi State3-70.1--
91Oregon State2-50.1--
92Tennessee3-70.1--
93East Carolina3-60.1--
94Charlotte2-40.1--
95Eastern Michigan2-40.1--
96Wyoming2-40.1--
98Illinois2-6<0.1--
99Florida State3-6<0.1--
100Rutgers3-6<0.1--
101New Mexico2-5<0.1--
102Louisville4-7<0.1--
103Georgia Tech3-7<0.1--
104Middle Tennessee3-6<0.1--
105South Alabama4-7<0.1--
106Arkansas State4-7<0.1--
107Baylor2-7<0.1--
108North Texas4-5<0.1--
109South Carolina2-8<0.1--
110UTEP3-5<0.1--
111Utah State1-5<0.1--
112Akron1-5<0.1--
113Temple1-6<0.1--
114Southern Miss3-7<0.1--
115Duke2-9<0.1--
116South Florida1-8<0.1--
117Texas State2-10<0.1--
118Syracuse1-10<0.1--
119Florida International0-5<0.1--
120Arizona0-5<0.1--
121Northern Illinois0-6<0.1--
122UNLV0-6<0.1--
123Vanderbilt0-9<0.1--
124Kansas0-9<0.1--
125UL Monroe0-10<0.1--
126Bowling Green0-5<0.1--
127Massachusetts0-4<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com