Florida

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2986th
  Defense+0.1431st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.9%83rd
  Defense44.3%25th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2549th
  Defense+1.2741st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1974th
  Defense+0.1134th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4486th
  Defense+0.2827th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.1%84th
  Defense48.5%32nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.8%66th
  Defense34.6%20th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7018th
  Defense3.0635th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.8%26th
  Defense13.5%9th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.2%80th
  Defense18.4%79th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   FAU
2. W
   CAM
3. W
   AUB
4. W
   MISS
5. L
   MIZ
6. L
   SC

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida.

Players, 2026

1. Aaron PhiloQB139 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 77th of 192 QBs
   0.26WAR0.04 to 0.47
2. Jadan BaughRB86 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 12th of 320 RBs
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.25
3. Dallas WilsonWR26 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 65th of 364 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
4. Duke ClarkRB22 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 185th of 320 RBs
   0.05WAR0.04 to 0.07
5. Vernell Brown IIIWR13 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 185th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
6. Bailey StocktonWR18 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 197th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
7. Patrick DurkinPK7 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 20th of 82 kickers
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.05
8. Luke HarpringTE10 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 60th of 164 TEs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  89189110th of 138Roster talent: 891, 10th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  27027012th of 138Recruiting: 270, 12th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  69%69%23rd of 136Returning production: 69%, 23rd of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.0+11.031st of 138SP+ rating so far: +11.0, 31st of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SCQ2 8:50 4th & 3 at SC 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
2. at AUBQ4 2:53 4th & 3 at AUB 21, up 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at MIZQ1 8:06 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs FAUQ1 2:06 4th & 4 at FAU 35, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. vs CAMQ3 7:55 4th & 14 at FLA 46, up 42Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at AUBQ4 8:45 4th & 10 at AUB 38, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. vs CAMQ1 1:13 4th & 4 at CAM 10, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. at AUBQ2 8:15 4th & 5 at AUB 8, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

103rd of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   FAU
2. W

   CAM
3. W

   AUB
4. W

   MISS
5. L

   MIZ
6. L

   SC

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Florida's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.39
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.33

Game by game

• FAUW 66-21 vs FAU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• CAMW 52-3 vs CAM100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• AUBW 44-39 at AUB63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• MISSW 52-28 vs MISS63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +37
• MIZL 17-45 at MIZ67% → 0%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −58, Other +1
• SCL 19-38 vs SC76% → 1%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −76: Scoreboard −67, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Florida's side.

Closest call

USF 28-31 FLA (2022) - Florida dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.