Florida

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2992nd
  Defense+0.1825th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense50.3%92nd
  Defense45.8%29th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3170th
  Defense+1.2161st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0852nd
  Defense+0.1424th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4494th
  Defense+0.2239th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.6%86th
  Defense50.0%33rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense41.7%94th
  Defense35.5%22nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1979th
  Defense3.2120th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.6%81st
  Defense16.0%17th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.4%64th
  Defense15.6%38th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MISS
2. W
   SC
3. L
   TA&M
4. W
   MIZ
5. W
   UGA
6. W
   ARK
7. W
   VAN
8. W
   UK
9. W
   TENN
10. L
    LSU
11. L
    ALA
12. L
    OU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida.

Players, 2020

1. Kyle TraskQB454 plays · +0.248 pts/play · 1st of 212 QBs
   2.11WAR1.31 to 2.90
2. Dameon PierceRB105 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 96th of 338 RBs
   0.31WAR0.23 to 0.39
3. Kadarius ToneyWR89 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 6th of 409 WRs
   0.25WAR0.17 to 0.35
4. Malik DavisRB88 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 146th of 338 RBs
   0.23WAR0.16 to 0.29
5. Nay'Quan WrightRB60 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 187th of 338 RBs
   0.17WAR0.13 to 0.20
6. Emory JonesQB36 plays · +0.247 pts/play · 143rd of 212 QBs
   0.17WAR0.09 to 0.24
7. Trevon GrimesWR55 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 44th of 409 WRs
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.23
8. Kyle PittsTE59 plays · +0.093 pts/play · 5th of 191 TEs
   0.10WAR−0.01 to 0.20

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  80980919th of 127Roster talent: 809, 19th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  26526510th of 127Recruiting: 265, 10th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  57%57%80th of 127Returning production: 57%, 80th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +19.8+19.86th of 127SP+ rating: +19.8, 6th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at OUQ1 0:31 4th & 3 at OU 3, down 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. at MISSQ3 9:30 4th & 6 at MISS 37, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
3. at UGAQ3 7:06 4th & 4 at UGA 49, up 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
4. vs SCQ3 13:20 4th & 2 at FLA 41, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. at TENNQ1 0:23 4th & 5 at TENN 41, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
6. at OUQ2 2:50 4th & 10 at OU 40, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
7. at TENNQ4 3:13 4th & 14 at TENN 36, up 18Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs UKQ4 12:17 4th & 3 at UK 27, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

103rd of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MISS
2. W

   SC
3. L

   TA&M
4. W

   MIZ
5. W

   UGA
6. W

   ARK
7. W

   VAN
8. W

   UK
9. W

   TENN
10. L

    LSU
11. L

    ALA
12. L

    OU

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Florida's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.25
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.93

Game by game

• MISSW 51-35 at MISS81% → 99%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• SCW 38-24 vs SC84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• TA&ML 38-41 at TA&M62% → 4%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −2
• MIZW 41-17 vs MIZ84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20
• UGAW 44-28 at UGA43% → 99%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• ARKW 63-35 vs ARK87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +16
• VANW 38-17 at VAN98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• UKW 34-10 vs UK94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• TENNW 31-19 at TENN87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• LSUL 34-37 vs LSU93% → 27%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −28, Possession & field position +4
• ALAL 46-52 vs ALA14% → 9%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −25, Clock −2
• OUL 20-55 at OU73% → 0%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −62, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Florida's side.

Closest call

USF 28-31 FLA (2022) - Florida dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.