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ALA

Alabama 52 at Florida 46

FLA
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · Kyle Trask sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:18: Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +16.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 11:29: Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +13.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:33: Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +19.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:59: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:07: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 22 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA, clock 02:07 ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 1 (K. Trask Run For Two-point Conversion) — FLA win probability +24.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 1:57FLA 4th & 5 at ALA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−2.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:27FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:52ALA 4th & 1 at FLA 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:15ALA 4th & 3 at FLA 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:35FLA 4th & 9 at ALA 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:16ALA 4th & 9 at FLA 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:53ALA 4th & 2 at FLA 2, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−8.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:16ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:20ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:05FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:07ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:27ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:28ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:09FLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:06ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:25FLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:18FLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:29ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:33FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−1.6
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:59ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:07FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.5%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:3086% → 85%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
14.4%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+19
14.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 19 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
14.7%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+13
14.9%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
15.1%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
15.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
15.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marlon Dunlap Jr.) to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
15.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
15.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 11 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1015% → 17%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
15.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
15.2%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the Fla 31 Kyle Trask fumbled, recovered by Fla Kyle TraskSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+15
15.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 15 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
15.7%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
15.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+51
16.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 51 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3INT
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3183% → 82%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
16.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+24
17.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 24 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
17.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 15 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
17.1%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+10
17.2%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
17.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
17.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-19
17.9%
Mac Jones pass intercepted Trey Dean III return for 19 yds to the Fla 31 Trey Dean III fumbled, forced by John Metchie III, recovered by Alab DeVonta SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
16.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5917% → 20%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
16.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 11 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
17.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 13 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
17.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 10 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+17
18.0%
Emory Jones run for 17 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
18.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
18.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+4
18.5%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
19.8%
Evan McPherson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:1881% → 84%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
19.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
19.6%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
19.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Zachary Carter) to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
19.3%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-5
19.3%
Mac Jones sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+15
19.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 15 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
19.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
19.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
20.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 6 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
19.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Xavier Williams for 12 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
19.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-1
19.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
15.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 7 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4817% → 17%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
17.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
17.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 11 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
17.7%
Kyle Trask sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+1
17.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+3
17.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+20
16.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 45 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 20 yds to the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:5383% → 91%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
16.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
16.2%
Mac Jones sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+6
16.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+5
16.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
16.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
16.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
16.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
17.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
17.0%
Miller Forristall run for 1 yd to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
16.3%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
16.0%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
16.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
8.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 23 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1311% → 19%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
10.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 39 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
12.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 8 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+27
12.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 27 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.1%
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 0:5684% → 93%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.3%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+25
16.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 25 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
15.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
15.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 21 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
14.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 7 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
14.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+8
14.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
7.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
10.9%
Kyle Trask sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3010% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
10.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
10.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 5 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
11.0%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
50
+50
18.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 50 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:0683% → 83%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
16.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 26 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
15.8%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
15.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+1
16.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 1 yd to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3417% → 16%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
17.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dylan Moses) to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
17.8%
Kyle Trask sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+4
16.9%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
17.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
15.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:0984% → 84%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
16.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 14 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
16.0%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+27
15.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 27 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
14.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+10
14.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
14.4%
Jahleel Billingsley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+4
14.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Major Tennison for 4 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
16.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:4716% → 36%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
16.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for a loss of 7 yards Jacob Copeland fumbled, forced by Dylan Moses, recovered by Fla Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
15.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+20
14.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 20 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
15.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dylan Moses) to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
16.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 25 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
19.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
19.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
17.9%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
19.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
18.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+4
17.7%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
18.9%
Kyle Trask run for 6 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4174% → 90%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
26.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
25.7%
Mac Jones run for 1 yd to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
25.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 20 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
23.7%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
22.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 14 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
22.5%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
22.2%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
23.4%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.4%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
13.4%
Kyle Trask sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 15 yards to the Fla 10 Kyle Trask fumbled, forced by Will Anderson Jr., recovered by Alab Tim Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0890% → 94%
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
9.6%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
9.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
10.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
5.8%
Will Reichard 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:188% → 27%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+31
7.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 31 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
7.4%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Alab 36 Malik Davis fumbled, forced by Christian Barmore, recovered by Fla Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
7.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
8.0%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
7.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+25
7.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 25 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.9%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:2484% → 96%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
15.6%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
12.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tedarrell Slaton) to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+29
12.1%
Najee Harris run for 29 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
11.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
3.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:435% → 29%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
4.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
3.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
3.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brian Branch) to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
4.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
4.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
4.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
4.4%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
4.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+22
28.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 22 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA, clock 02:07 ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 1 (K. Trask Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:4992% → 94%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
8.1%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
6.3%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-2
5.0%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+2
6.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 44 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 2 yds to the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
9.4%
Kyle Trask sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:07
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 22 yds for a TD Timeout FLORIDA, clock 02:07 ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 1 (K. Trask Run For Two-point Conversion)
+24.5
TD · Q4 6:33
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q3 0:18
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com