Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
TEX32
FLA21
TEX by 11 · market TEX by 10.5
Win chance
TEX74%
FLA 26%TEX 74%
Projected total
52pts
Market total 52.75
Explore the range of outcomes
61%
chance Texas wins by 7 or more
39% Texas wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← FLA winsTEX wins →
-21-7+7+21+35
- 50% of outcomes
- Even to TEX by 22
- 80% of outcomes
- FLA by 8 to TEX by 33
- 90% of outcomes
- FLA by 13 to TEX by 37
- Median
- TEX by 12
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 4% | 11% | 1% |
| Texas | 54% | 63% | 29% |
| Also riding on it | Now | FLA wins (26%)If Florida wins (26%) | TEX wins (74%)If Texas wins (74%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 49% | 50% | 48% |
| Houston | 31% | 32% | 31% |
| Iowa | 28% | 29% | 27% |
and 1 more team whose odds move a little
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds