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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:05 · Dameon Pierce run for 15 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down (Fake punt)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:18: Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +2.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 0:42: Max Duffy punt for 40 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 50 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +8.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:35: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 2 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +5.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:58: Evan McPherson 34 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +2.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:36: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 10:40UK 4th & 3 at FLA 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%52% to convertField goal7.8%−0.154% to makePunt7.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:27UK 4th & 30 at FLA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.17% to convertField goal8.4%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q1 7:05FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:01UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:23UK 4th & 2 at UK 45, down 7Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:37FLA 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:13UK 4th & 5 at FLA 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call19.2%92% to makePunt15.8%−3.4average punt
- Q2 1:13FLA 4th & 11 at midfield, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it77.0%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.3%average punt
- Q2 0:42UK 4th & 1 at UK 10, up 3Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it20.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:20UK 4th & 13 at UK 5, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q3 5:58FLA 4th & 16 at UK 16, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it88.8%−1.214% to convertField goalTheir call90.0%81% to makePunt86.7%−3.4average punt
- Q3 1:54UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, down 21Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it2.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:54UK 4th & 4 at FLA 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%48% to convertField goal1.2%−0.256% to makePunt0.8%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:17FLA 4th & 3 at UK 27, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it99.0%52% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%−0.162% to makePunt98.2%−0.8average punt
- Q4 8:18FLA 4th & 11 at UK 22, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%72% to makePunt98.3%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:03FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:18UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.4%97% to makeGo for two12.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:35FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:36FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 35 yds · 6:286% → 8%
Q1 13:22
2ND & 4
50
+12
93.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 12 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+11
92.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 11 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
92.5%
Terry Wilson sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 20
OPP 30
-10
92.4%
Terry Wilson sacked by Zachary Carter and Mohamoud Diabate for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 30
OPP 40
+9
92.3%
Max Duffy punt for 32 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 9 yds to the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD6 plays · 83 yds · 2:2292% → 93%
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
92.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+15
91.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 15 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down (Fake punt)Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+56
92.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 56 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 4:358% → 9%
Q1 1:23
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
91.5%
Max Duffy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kadarius Toney at the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3292% → 92%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+3
91.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 3 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+16
91.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Rick Wells for 16 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
91.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 3 yds Justin Shorter fumbled, forced by Chris Oats, recovered by Kent DeAndre SquareSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD7 plays · 38 yds · 3:269% → 13%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
90.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
90.2%
Wilson, Terry rush for 2 yards to the FLORIDA14, PENALTY FLORIDA offside 5 yards to the FLORIDA11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3388% → 87%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
88.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 21 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG15 plays · 87 yds · 7:1613% → 21%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
50
+10
82.7%
Wilson, Terry pass incomplete to Harris, DeMarcus, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Elam, Kaiir) 10 yards to the FLORIDA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Asim Rose Jr. KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Young) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 0:5580% → 79%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
81.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
81.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-15
81.4%
Trask, Kyle pass complete to Grimes, Trevon for 11 yards to the KENTUCKY38, PENALTY FLORIDA face mask (Forsythe, Stone) 15 yards to the FLORIDA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+5
79.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+9
78.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2521% → 13%
Q2 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+50
87.0%
Max Duffy punt for 40 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 50 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2085% → 92%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
85.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 9 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+12
86.1%
Kadarius Toney pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 12 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
86.2%
Trask, Kyle pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the KENTUCKY47 (Weaver, J.J.), PENALTY KENTUCKY face mask (Weaver, J.J.) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
86.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Kent 26 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Kordell Looney) to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
86.2%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Pitts, Kyle, PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Joseph, Kelvin) 11 yards to the KENTUCKY2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 2 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 2:019% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FG9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1591% → 94%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+42
91.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 42 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
91.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 9 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
91.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquan McCall) to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
91.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 7 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
91.6%
Kyle Trask sacked by Jamar Watson and Jordan Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
91.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for no gain to the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:487% → 7%
FLADrive 15TD3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2095% → 98%
UKDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q3 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+41
98.3%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLORIDA 20 KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0899% → 99%
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the Fla 36 Nay'Quan Wright fumbled, recovered by Kent Jamin Davis KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Kelvin Joseph) to the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:412% → 1%
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+2
98.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose Jr. for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19MISSED FG5 plays · 45 yds · 2:2799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:461% → 1%
FLADrive 21FG7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5999% → 99%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
99.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 22 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22INT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Joey Gatewood pass intercepted Tre'Vez Johnson return for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER10 plays · 69 yds · 5:3799% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 8 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+20
99.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 20 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 3 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+15
99.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 15 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 0:42
Max Duffy punt for 40 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for 50 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 12:35
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 2 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q3 3:36
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+3.6