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Florida 38 at Texas A&M 41

TA&M
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Seth Small 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:35: Isaiah Spiller run for 19 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +28.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:54: Evan McPherson 53 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +20.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:14: Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +30.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:30: Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +41.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Seth Small 26 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +20.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37FLA 4th & 1 at TA&M 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07FLA 4th & 1 at TA&M 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q3 13:27TA&M 4th & 10 at FLA 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:13TA&M 4th & 10 at FLA 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:30FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:17FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:35TA&M 4th & 2 at FLA 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−1.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−13.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:54FLA 4th & 15 at TA&M 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:32FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:42FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:33TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:14FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:38FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:18TA&M Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:35TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:14FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:30TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
36 plays · 75 yds · 7:2862% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 17 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
38.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
38.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kadarius Toney, broken up by Devin MorrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
38.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 17 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
38.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
38.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
38.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
39.0%
Kyle Trask run for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
39.1%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
38.8%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-9
38.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the TexAM 24 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacob Copeland) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
39.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon Grimes, broken up by Demani RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+16
39.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 16 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
38.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
38.8%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+5
38.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
38.8%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
39.1%
Kyle Trask run for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
39.3%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
39.2%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-9
39.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the TexAM 24 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
39.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+16
40.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 16 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
39.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
39.9%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+5
40.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
40.1%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3339% → 44%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb Chapman, broken up by Kaiir ElamSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+49
39.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 49 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
40.4%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+3
40.4%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
39.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+49
39.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 49 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
41.2%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+3
41.4%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
44.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:1758% → 63%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.5%
K. Trask pass incomplete to K. Toney (Devin Morris), QB hurry by Bobby Brown, PENALTY TAMU roughing passer (Bobby Brown) 15 yards to the UF40, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+39
41.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 39 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
40.8%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+39
41.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 39 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
40.7%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
36.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
37.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4DOWNS TD
28 plays · -7 yds · 7:0938% → 49%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
38.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+7
38.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
38.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 5 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OWN 20
-69
37.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for a loss of 69 yards to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-62
37.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for a loss of 62 yards to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
38.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 5 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+6
38.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the TexAM 26 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Shawn Davis, recovered by TexAM Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+14
38.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 14 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
39.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 30 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
40.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
40.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
40.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
40.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb Chapman, broken up by Kaiir ElamSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+10
39.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 10 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
40.7%
Ainias Smith run for 4 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
40.7%
Ainias Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
50
-24
36.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 24 yards to the TexAM 26 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Shawn Davis, recovered by TexAM Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+14
38.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 14 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
39.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 30 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
41.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
41.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
41.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
41.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+10
40.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 10 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
41.4%
Ainias Smith run for 4 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
41.5%
Ainias Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 5:1955% → 67%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
44.5%
K. Trask pass incomplete to J. Shorter, QB hurry by Jayden Peevy, PENALTY TAMU holding (Myles Jones) 10 yards to the UF39, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
43.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
43.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
42.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
42.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
41.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
41.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
41.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
42.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
41.8%
Kadarius Toney run for 9 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
44.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
42.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
41.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
41.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
41.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
41.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
42.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
41.5%
Kadarius Toney run for 9 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6END OF HALF
39 plays · 73 yds · 4:1437% → 53%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 10 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
37.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+17
38.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 17 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
39.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
39.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer, broken up by Mohamoud DiabateSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 10 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+17
38.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 17 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
38.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
37.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 10 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
37.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
37.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 10 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
38.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+11
37.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kam Brown for 11 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
42.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
42.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+11
40.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kam Brown for 11 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
42.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to J Wydermyer (S. Davis), PENALTY UF pass interference (S. Davis) 2 yards to the UF2, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
46.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
52.9%
Seth Small 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
52.9%
Seth Small 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
17 plays · 29 yds · 1:4741% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
40.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 18 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah Spiller, broken up by Kaiir ElamSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
41.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer, broken up by Ventrell MillerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
44.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
40.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 18 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
41.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
43.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
42.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 10Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
45.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
43.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
42.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 36 yds, downed at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 3:3559% → 77%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
41.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
40.8%
K. Trask pass intercepted by Leon ONeal at the TAMU45, Leon ONeal return to the UF32 (T. Grimes), PENALTY TAMU personal foul (Micheal Clemons) 15 yards to the UF36, 1ST DOWN UF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
39.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 21 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
37.0%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
37.0%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 0
0
37.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
41.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
40.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
39.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 21 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
36.8%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
36.9%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+37
22.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 37 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 5:2026% → 42%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
26.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the TexAM 13Similar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
25.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
26.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 23 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
27.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
28.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
30.2%
Ainias Smith run for 9 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
30.2%
Ainias Smith run for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
30.2%
Ainias Smith run for 6 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
30.2%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+11
30.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 11 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+13
24.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+23
24.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 23 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
26.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
26.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
27.9%
Ainias Smith run for 9 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
27.8%
Ainias Smith run for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
27.0%
Ainias Smith run for 6 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
26.6%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+11
26.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 11 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
42.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 1:0165% → 61%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
35.0%
Kyle Trask sacked by Bobby Brown III for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
36.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
35.0%
Kyle Trask sacked by Bobby Brown III for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
36.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 11 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
35.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
39.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 11 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:2040% → 74%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
39.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
40.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
40.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
43.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
43.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 7 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
44.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
44.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
47.0%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+1
47.1%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+1
45.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+19
73.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 19 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:2129% → 47%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+26
68.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 26 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
65.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 10 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.2%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
63.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
66.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 25
-5
70.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 10
OPP 30
-5
72.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+53
53.5%
Evan McPherson 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5456% → 56%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
58.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
55.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds Ainias Smith fumbled, recovered by Fla Marco Wilson , return for 4 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0255% → 90%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
45.1%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+16
45.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 16 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
41.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 21 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.5%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3621% → 63%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
22.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 4 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
21.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 13 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
62.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4249% → 53%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
51.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 23 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
47.5%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 48 Malik Davis fumbled, recovered by TexAM DeMarvin Leal , return for 2 yds to the Fla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1664% → 96%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
64.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
64.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 7 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
63.6%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
64.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-2
67.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+16
64.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 16 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
68.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
96.2%
Seth Small 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:30
Kellen Mond pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+41.5
TD · Q4 6:14
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q4 12:35
Isaiah Spiller run for 19 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+28.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com