Florida

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1141st
  Defense+0.0668th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.0%53rd
  Defense43.9%31st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2231st
  Defense+1.1780th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1259th
  Defense+0.0946th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1232nd
  Defense+0.0480th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.7%66th
  Defense47.0%53rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.8%23rd
  Defense36.8%8th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0552nd
  Defense3.0641st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.8%44th
  Defense16.6%36th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%51st
  Defense18.4%74th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MIA
2. W
   SAM
3. L
   TA&M
4. W
   MSST
5. W
   UCF
6. L
   TENN
7. W
   UK
8. L
   UGA
9. L
   TEX
10. W
    LSU
11. W
    MISS
12. W
    FSU
13. W
    TULN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida.

Players, 2024

1. DJ LagwayQB182 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 120th of 232 QBs
   0.59WAR0.16 to 1.03
2. Graham MertzQB97 plays · +0.245 pts/play · 136th of 232 QBs
   0.45WAR0.24 to 0.65
3. Jadan BaughRB105 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 117th of 373 RBs
   0.25WAR0.18 to 0.32
4. Jeremy CrawshawP49 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 2nd of 106 punters
   0.23WAR0.14 to 0.32
5. Chimere DikeWR48 plays · +0.217 pts/play · 44th of 452 WRs
   0.19WAR0.07 to 0.34
6. Ja'Kobi JacksonRB73 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 167th of 373 RBs
   0.18WAR0.14 to 0.22
7. Montrell Johnson Jr.RB88 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 188th of 373 RBs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.22
8. Trey SmackPK16 plays · +0.335 pts/play · 33rd of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  89489412th of 131Roster talent: 894, 12th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  25925913th of 131Recruiting: 259, 13th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  72%72%20th of 130Returning production: 72%, 20th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +13.8+13.820th of 131SP+ rating: +13.8, 20th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs LSUQ2 3:27 4th & 3 at LSU 31, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. vs MISSQ2 2:14 4th & 3 at FLA 38, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
3. at FSUQ3 7:49 4th & 2 at FLA 45, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at TENNQ4 8:09 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at UGAQ3 11:11 4th & 5 at UGA 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs TA&MQ3 2:31 4th & 9 at TA&M 23, down 26Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at MSSTQ4 2:34 4th & 3 at MSST 29, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs UCFQ3 0:45 4th & 7 at UCF 35, up 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

23rd of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MIA
2. W

   SAM
3. L

   TA&M
4. W

   MSST
5. W

   UCF
6. L

   TENN
7. W

   UK
8. L

   UGA
9. L

   TEX
10. W

    LSU
11. W

    MISS
12. W

    FSU
13. W

    TULN

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Florida's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.85
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.06
• Timeouts+0.20
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.58

Game by game

• MIAL 17-41 vs MIA45% → 0%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −47, Clock −2
• SAMW 45-7 vs SAM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• TA&ML 20-33 vs TA&M43% → 2%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• MSSTW 45-28 at MSST73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Clock +1
• UCFW 24-13 vs UCF53% → 96%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +39, Possession & field position −1
• TENNL 17-23 at TENN19% → 13%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts +16
• UKW 48-20 vs UK50% → 90%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• UGAL 20-34 at UGA16% → 1%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −1
• TEXL 17-49 at TEX7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −10
• LSUW 27-16 vs LSU46% → 98%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• MISSW 24-17 vs MISS19% → 97%Before kickoff −31 · On the field +77: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +3
• FSUW 31-11 at FSU88% → 97%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• TULNW 33-8 vs TULN79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Florida's side.

Closest call

USF 28-31 FLA (2022) - Florida dropped to a 2.5% win probability before pulling it out.