Try the model
MIA

Miami 41 at Florida 17

FLA
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the FLA 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:53: Andres Borregales 23 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:41: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +7.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:21: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +13.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:45: Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:25: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +11.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:27FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:24FLA 4th & 6 at MIA 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:19FLA 4th & 10 at MIA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:53MIA 4th & 4 at FLA 5, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−5.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04FLA 4th & 5 at MIA 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:47FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:32MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 35, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:45FLA 4th & 8 at MIA 45, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:44MIA 4th & 9 at FLA 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:21FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:17MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:00MIA 4th & 5 at FLA 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:48MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:41MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:21FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:45MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:25MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:08MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:14FLA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1945% → 46%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
45.2%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
45.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 41Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
45.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 38Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
45.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Myles Graham at the MIA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:3254% → 57%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
45.7%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
45.8%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
45.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 2 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
46.1%
Cam Ward run for 12 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
45.9%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
45.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
45.8%
Cam Ward run for 24 yds to the FLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
45.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 19Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
45.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
46.0%
Florida Penalty, Roughing Passer (Justus Boone) to the FLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
45.6%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the FLA 9Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
42.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Cam McCormick for 9 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1144% → 44%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
43.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 19 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
44.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
44.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 1 yd to the MIA 41Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
43.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, downed at the MIA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:4857% → 57%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
43.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 5Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+9
43.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 9 yds to the MIA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
43.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 1 yd to the MIA 15Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
42.8%
Cam Ward pass intercepted Shemar James return for no gain to the MIA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4845% → 46%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
44.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 3 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+7
44.8%
Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 23Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
44.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
43.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
46.1%
Trey Smack 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 5:1654% → 60%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.8%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
45.1%
Damien Martinez run for 17 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
44.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
44.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 17 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
43.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 11 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
43.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 3 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
43.2%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the FLA 5Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
43.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for no gain to the FLA 5Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
40.0%
Andres Borregales 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:2340% → 40%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
40.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
41.2%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daryl Porter Jr.) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
42.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
42.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
42.3%
Treyaun Webb run for no gain to the MIA 42Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
40.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1763% → 72%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
37.4%
Ward, Cam pass incomplete to Horton, Isaiah, PENALTY FLA roughing passer (Douglas, DJ) 15 yards to the FLA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
36.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+30
36.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 30 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
36.1%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
28.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4830% → 29%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
29.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
29.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0571% → 74%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
28.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
28.4%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
28.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 1 yd to the MIA 35Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+17
26.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 53 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 17 yds to the FLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
39.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2764% → 79%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.4%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
34.7%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
34.3%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
34.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 8 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
33.0%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
33.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 28 yds to the FLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
31.1%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
21.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
27.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1275% → 90%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
24.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+40
24.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 40 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
21.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 22 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
21.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 6 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5315% → 13%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
15.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 13 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
15.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-8
15.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FLA Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-3
14.0%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jaden Harris and Elijah Alston for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+7
13.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 7 yds to the MIA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3691% → 98%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
8.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 23 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
7.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
7.3%
Jordan Lyle run for 8 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.0%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
6.5%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+27
6.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 27 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
6.2%
Jordan Lyle run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+23
2.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 23 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:333% → 1%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
2.7%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaden Harris) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
2.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
2.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
2.0%
Graham Mertz sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 17
OWN 46
-3
1.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 43Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+12
1.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+12
1.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
1.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
1.6%
Graham Mertz run for 10 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
1.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-67
1.4%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Mishael Powell return for 67 yds to the FLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
0.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
0.8%
Xavier Restrepo pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
0.9%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
1.2%
Andres Borregales 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
1.1%
Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
0.9%
DJ Lagway run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
0.8%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, downed at the MIA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
0.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-3
0.6%
Cam Ward sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 25Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+11
0.7%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 11 yds to the FLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:531% → 4%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
0.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
0.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 16 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.5%
DJ Lagway run for 1 yd to the MIA 30Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+11
0.4%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 11 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
0.3%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
0.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+16
0.3%
DJ Lagway run for 16 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the MIA 1Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.0%
Treyaun Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:0599% → 99%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
1.4%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+29
1.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 29 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
1.0%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the FLA 12Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
1.0%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
0.9%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
1.0%
Andres Borregales 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
1.0%
DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.0%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted Jaden Harris return for no gain to the MIA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:0399% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
0.5%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+35
0.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 35 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
0.3%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
0.3%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the FLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:21
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q3 12:25
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 0:45
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com