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SAM

Samford 7 at Florida 45

FLA
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Ken Cherry run for 3 yds to the SAM 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:02: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:38: DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 36 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:40: Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd for a TD (Forrest Taylor KICK) — SAM win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:52: DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 41 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:55: DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 85 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:34FLA 4th & 1 at SAM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56SAM 4th & 23 at SAM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:23SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:20SAM 4th & 16 at SAM 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:02SAM 4th & 10 at SAM 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:59FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05SAM 4th & 14 at SAM 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08FLA 4th & 3 at SAM 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:55SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:10FLA 4th & 1 at SAM 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:18FLA 4th & 7 at SAM 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:11SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:18SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:23FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 45, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05SAM 4th & 13 at SAM 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:53FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:02FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:38FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:40SAM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:52FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:55FLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:48FLA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SAMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:451% → 2%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.6%
Micah Kelly run for 8 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
98.6%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 3 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 7 yds D.J. Rias fumbled, recovered by FLA Aaron Gates A. Gates return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4698% → 98%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAM 42Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+16
98.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the SAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
98.4%
DJ Lagway run for 1 yd to the SAM 25Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
98.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAM 23Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
98.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 6 yds to the SAM 17Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
98.2%
Treyaun Webb run for no gain to the SAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 5:292% → 3%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
98.1%
D.J. Rias run for 9 yds to the SAM 26Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
98.1%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 3 yds to the SAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for 2 yds to the SAM 31Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
98.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 7 yds to the SAM 38Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+12
97.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.7%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
97.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
97.7%
Quincy Crittendon run for 10 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
97.6%
Quincy Crittendon sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 18
OPP 46
-10
97.5%
Samford Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 18
OPP 46
-5
97.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to E. Jai Mason for a loss of 5 yards to the SAM 49Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 23
OWN 49
0
97.4%
Will Thorley punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:5297% → 98%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
97.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the FLA 20Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+77
97.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 77 yds to the SAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAM 1Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:303% → 3%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Iaan Cousin run for 5 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.3%
Quincy Crittendon run for 6 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.2%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Preston Bird for 5 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
97.1%
Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAM 37 Quincy Crittendon fumbled, recovered by SAM Quincy Crittendon Q. Crittendon return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Will Thorley punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
97.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+14
97.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 14 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+44
97.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 44 yds to the SAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.1%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds Jadan Baugh fumbled, recovered by SAM Midnight Steward M. Steward return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 4:273% → 4%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.8%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the SAM 23Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
96.8%
Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 22Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
96.7%
Quincy Crittendon run for 8 yds to the SAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
96.4%
Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 28Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+2
96.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for 2 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-6
96.3%
Quincy Crittendon sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the SAM 24 Quincy Crittendon fumbled, recovered by SAM , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 16
OWN 24
-3
96.3%
Will Thorley punt for 43 yds , Chimere Dike returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1696% → 97%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
96.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 40 yds to the SAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
96.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAM 35Similar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+2
96.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+4
96.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the SAM 29Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+22
96.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 22 yds to the SAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:003% → 3%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 14 yds to the SAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.6%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 38Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
96.6%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 3 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-2
96.4%
Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 39Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Will Thorley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5596% → 97%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.5%
DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
96.3%
DJ Lagway run for 1 yd to the FLA 24Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-5
96.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:404% → 4%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.3%
Damonta Witherspoon run for no gain to the SAM 10Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+35
96.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 35 yds to the SAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
96.1%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 2 yds to the SAM 47Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-6
95.9%
Quincy Crittendon sacked by Caleb Banks for a loss of 6 yards to the SAM 41Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
96.4%
Will Thorley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
97.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 9 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
97.4%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
97.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.3%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 7 yds to the SAM 47Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
97.0%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
97.2%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
96.3%
(00:01) [NHSG] Kneel down by CRITTENDON, Quincy at SAM46 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0897% → 99%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
96.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 22 yds to the SAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.9%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
96.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 36 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:532% → 5%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 4 yds to the SAM 29Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 7 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.5%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the SAM 38Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+20
98.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 20 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
98.5%
Iaan Cousin run for 9 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+4
98.3%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
98.3%
Quincy Crittendon run for 1 yd to the FLA 28Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
98.4%
Florida Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jason Marshall Jr.) to the FLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.4%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the FLA 11Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
98.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for 9 yds to the FLA 2Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the FLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd for a TD (Forrest Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4597% → 99%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 16 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
96.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 10 yds to the SAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
96.8%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
98.8%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 41 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the SAM 28Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Will Thorley punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 6:3599% → 100%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
98.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+24
99.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 24 yds to the SAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.0%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the SAM 26Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
99.1%
DJ Lagway run for 4 yds to the SAM 22Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 2 yds to the SAM 17Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
99.2%
Treyaun Webb run for 5 yds to the SAM 12Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+6
99.4%
Treyaun Webb run for 6 yds to the SAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
99.4%
(14:26) LAGWAY, DJ pass to the right incomplete intended for HANSEN, Hayden broken up by DEARMAN, Edwin at the SAM0, clock 14:27. PENALTY UFL Holding on GEORGE JR., Damieon enforced 10 yards from the SAM6 to the SAM16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+1
99.4%
Treyaun Webb run for 1 yd to the SAM 15Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
99.5%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
99.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds to the SAM 7Similar
Q4 13:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
99.5%
Trey Smack 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
D.J. Rias pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 8 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.2%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 4 yds to the SAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.2%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the SAM 37Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.2%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Preston Bird for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 36Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
99.2%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the SAM 43Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Will Thorley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
99.9%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 85 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Teddy Davenport for no gain to the SAM 25Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the SAM 26Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Will Thorley punt for 46 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 9 yds to the FLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
Florida Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FLA 38Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
99.9%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the SAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for 2 yds to the SAM 19Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-2
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 17Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+15
99.9%
(04:49) SCALZO, Nik pass to the left incomplete intended for TAYLOR, Tate thrown to the SAM26, clock 04:48. PENALTY UFL Roughing the Passer on ROBINSON, D'Antre enforced 15 yards from the SAM17 to the SAM32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Nik Scalzo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for 4 yds to the SAM 36Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-7
99.9%
Nik Scalzo sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the SAM 29 Nik Scalzo fumbled, recovered by SAM Nik Scalzo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Will Thorley punt for 46 yds , Chimere Dike returns for no gain to the SAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
KD Daniels run for 2 yds to the SAM 27Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
99.9%
Aidan Warner pass complete to Jackson Wade for 10 yds to the SAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
KD Daniels run for 3 yds to the SAM 14Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
KD Daniels run for 5 yds to the SAM 9Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Aidan Warner run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Ken Cherry run for 3 yds to the SAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:40
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd for a TD (Forrest Taylor KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q3 5:52
DJ Lagway pass complete to Aidan Mizell for 41 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+2
TD · Q3 13:38
DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 36 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com