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MISS

Ole Miss 17 at Florida 24

FLA
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:05: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +7.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:52: DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 25 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +10.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:45: Caden Davis 42 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +8.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:40: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +26.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 23 — FLA win probability +11.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:15MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:38FLA 4th & 6 at MISS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:36MISS 4th & 1 at FLA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:45MISS 4th & 2 at FLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:04MISS 4th & 7 at FLA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:31FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:57FLA 4th & 8 at MISS 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:43MISS 4th & 1 at FLA 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−3.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−14.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:19FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−4.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:45MISS 4th & 7 at FLA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:35FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:34MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−2.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:26MISS 4th & 16 at FLA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:58FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:03FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:56FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:01MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:05MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:52FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:40FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3281% → 79%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
19.6%
Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
19.8%
JJ Pegues run for 4 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
20.0%
Micah Davis run for 6 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
20.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-7
20.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Caleb Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 37Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+10
20.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 10 yds to the FLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3221% → 22%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
20.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
21.2%
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
21.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
21.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
22.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
22.3%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
22.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5178% → 76%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
22.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 15 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
22.2%
Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+19
22.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 19 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
22.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 5 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+19
22.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
22.5%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+9
22.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 9 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
23.2%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the FLA 11Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
23.6%
JJ Pegues run for no gain to the FLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 5:2224% → 33%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
24.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+19
24.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 19 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
25.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
26.4%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 14 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+17
25.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 17 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
27.0%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
27.7%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+17
27.7%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 17 yds to the MISS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
28.5%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
29.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the MISS 8Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.0%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4368% → 73%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
32.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
31.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
31.7%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd to the MISS 45Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+8
32.9%
JJ Pegues run for 8 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
32.2%
Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+43
26.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 43 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:3329% → 31%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.4%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
29.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.8%
DJ Lagway pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for no gain to the MISS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0372% → 78%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
27.6%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+10
28.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 10 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
27.6%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+25
28.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 25 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
21.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0224% → 37%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.8%
Jadan Baugh run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
23.4%
DJ Lagway run for 6 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+27
24.2%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 27 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
26.0%
Ole Miss Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jadon Canady) to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
36.6%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 25 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:4469% → 69%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
30.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
50
+30
28.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 30 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
28.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
28.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
29.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
30.6%
Caden Davis 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1635% → 35%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.0%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
35.2%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 8 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
36.1%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 1 yd to the FLA 32Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-10
36.5%
DJ Lagway sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 22Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+16
34.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
34.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5168% → 68%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
32.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Micah Davis for 11 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
31.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Nate Kalepo) to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
32.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+10
32.9%
Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Castell) to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
31.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
30.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
30.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Micah Davis for 1 yd to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
32.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 43 yds, downed at the FLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:0136% → 35%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
35.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
36.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 18Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+12
34.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
36.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
36.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
35.9%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
34.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1037% → 36%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
37.4%
DJ Lagway sacked by Princely Umanmielen and JJ Pegues for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-9
37.3%
Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damieon George Jr.) to the FLA 10Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 25
OWN 10
-4
37.9%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+13
36.5%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 13 yds to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
36.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 39 yds , Micah Davis returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 37 Micah Davis fumbled, recovered by FLA DJ DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1242% → 45%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
42.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
43.5%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
42.3%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for no gain to the MISS 35Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
45.0%
Trey Smack 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:5256% → 54%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.2%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
44.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 20 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
41.9%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+6
42.0%
JJ Pegues run for 6 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
42.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+3
40.8%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
41.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
41.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 12 yds to the FLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
42.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+9
44.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
45.9%
JJ Pegues run for no gain to the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0950% → 48%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
50.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 11Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
49.9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-5
48.7%
DJ Lagway sacked by Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
47.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2653% → 59%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
46.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Diego Pounds) to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+23
50.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 23 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
47.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+3
46.2%
Domonique Thomas run for 3 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
46.6%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Caleb Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 35Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+10
50.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
49.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Domonique ThomasSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
41.2%
Caden Davis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:5347% → 49%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
47.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
48.6%
Jadan Baugh run for 9 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
51.7%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
53.2%
Jadan Baugh run for 4 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
53.0%
Jadan Baugh run for no gain to the MISS 49Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
51.0%
Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 46Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
48.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4854% → 50%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
45.9%
Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MISS 11Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+6
46.2%
Micah Davis run for 6 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-4
47.8%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 13Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
50.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:4052% → 87%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
52.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 41 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
59.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
59.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
86.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:0419% → 16%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
81.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 35 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.4%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
76.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-6
79.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Caleb Banks and Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 46Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
83.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the FLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1687% → 90%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
87.1%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 16 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
88.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+15
88.8%
Johnson Jr., Montrell rush for 1 yard to the FLA25, PENALTY MISS horse collar tackle 15 yards to the FLA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLA.Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
90.0%
Jadan Baugh run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 35Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
90.5%
DJ Lagway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
90.8%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+4
89.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 47 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 4 yds to the MISS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0414% → 16%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
86.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
85.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+7
87.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
85.3%
Domonique Thomas run for 7 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+10
85.1%
Domonique Thomas run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
83.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 6 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.6%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Thornton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2295% → 96%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
96.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
96.3%
Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
95.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:399% → 10%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
91.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+19
92.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 19 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
89.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
90.3%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Bryce Thornton return for no gain to the FLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:40
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+26.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 23
+11
TD · Q2 6:52
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 25 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com