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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Missouri
    9-3 · resume score 27.7 · schedule 2.8
    Resume #26
    CFP #19
  • Tennessee
    10-2 · resume score 55.6 · schedule 2.7
    Resume #13
    CFP #7
  • Colorado
    9-3 · resume score 24.4 · schedule 2.6
    Resume #29
    CFP #23

Resume says higher

  • BYU
    10-2 · resume score 67.5 · schedule 3.1
    Resume #9
    CFP #17
  • Boise State
    12-1 · resume score 87.8 · schedule 3.0
    Resume #3
    CFP #9
  • Army
    11-2 · resume score 43.8 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #16
    CFP #22

Every FBS team, 2024

134

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Oregon13-098.831
2Georgia11-290.662
3Boise State12-187.889
4Notre Dame11-183.525
5Texas11-280.943
6Penn State11-275.954
7Ohio State10-275.316
8Indiana11-173.1108
9BYU10-267.51317
10Miami10-265.91813
11SMU11-261.71210
12Arizona State11-260.3712
13Tennessee10-255.697
14Alabama9-351.21711
15South Carolina9-346.71915
16Army11-243.82122
17Clemson10-342.71416
18Iowa State10-341.01518
19Ole Miss9-339.21114
20Illinois9-339.11620
21Memphis10-236.52425
22Syracuse9-335.02021
23Marshall10-334.6--
24UNLV10-332.82324
26Missouri9-327.72219
27Texas A&M8-426.0--
28LSU8-424.9--
29Colorado9-324.42523
30Duke9-324.3--
31Louisville8-424.1--
32Kansas State8-418.2--
33Michigan7-517.6--
34Ohio10-316.3--
35Louisiana10-315.7--
36Baylor8-415.3--
37Tulane9-414.6--
38Georgia Tech7-514.2--
39Georgia Southern8-414.0--
40Texas Tech8-412.7--
41Sam Houston9-311.2--
42Iowa8-49.4--
43Florida7-59.3--
44TCU8-47.6--
45Washington State8-45.1--
46Oklahoma6-65.0--
47Minnesota7-54.2--
48Jacksonville State9-44.2--
49Buffalo8-43.9--
50Pittsburgh7-53.9--
51Colorado State8-43.8--
52Washington6-63.6--
53Boston College7-53.4--
54USC6-63.4--
55Western Kentucky8-53.2--
56James Madison8-43.2--
57Liberty8-33.0--
58Miami (OH)8-52.9--
59Virginia Tech6-62.7--
60Kansas5-72.4--
61Vanderbilt6-62.2--
62UCLA5-71.8--
63Rutgers7-51.5--
64UConn8-41.3--
65Northern Illinois7-51.2--
66Arkansas State7-51.1--
67Nebraska6-61.1--
68Texas State7-51.0--
69San José State7-51.0--
70Arkansas6-61.0--
71East Carolina7-50.9--
72Toledo7-50.8--
73Bowling Green7-50.8--
74NC State6-60.7--
75App State5-60.6--
76West Virginia6-60.6--
77Michigan State5-70.4--
78Coastal Carolina6-60.4--
79South Alabama6-60.4--
80Wisconsin5-70.3--
81Virginia5-70.3--
82Cincinnati5-70.3--
83North Texas6-60.3--
84Old Dominion5-70.2--
85North Carolina6-60.2--
86South Florida6-60.2--
87Fresno State6-60.2--
88Western Michigan6-60.2--
89Northwestern4-80.2--
90California6-60.2--
91Kentucky4-80.2--
92UTSA6-60.1--
93Utah5-70.1--
94UL Monroe5-70.1--
95Charlotte5-70.1--
96Auburn5-70.1--
97Houston4-80.1--
98Oregon State5-7<0.1--
99Maryland4-8<0.1--
100UCF4-8<0.1--
101Wake Forest4-8<0.1--
102Air Force5-7<0.1--
103Arizona4-8<0.1--
104Stanford3-9<0.1--
105Eastern Michigan5-7<0.1--
106Rice4-8<0.1--
107Akron4-8<0.1--
108Hawai'i5-7<0.1--
109New Mexico5-7<0.1--
110Oklahoma State3-9<0.1--
111Troy4-8<0.1--
112Utah State4-8<0.1--
113Louisiana Tech5-7<0.1--
114Central Michigan4-8<0.1--
115Florida State2-10<0.1--
116Georgia State3-9<0.1--
117Wyoming3-9<0.1--
118Florida International4-8<0.1--
119Temple3-9<0.1--
120Nevada3-10<0.1--
121Mississippi State2-10<0.1--
122Ball State3-9<0.1--
123Middle Tennessee3-9<0.1--
124UAB3-9<0.1--
125San Diego State3-9<0.1--
126UTEP3-9<0.1--
127New Mexico State3-9<0.1--
128Tulsa3-9<0.1--
129Florida Atlantic3-9<0.1--
130Purdue1-11<0.1--
131Kennesaw State2-10<0.1--
132Massachusetts2-10<0.1--
133Southern Miss1-11<0.1--
134Kent State0-12<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com