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Resume rankings

Not who's best, but who's done the most: every FBS team ranked by how hard its record would be for a playoff-calibre team to match on the same schedule. The committee says it weighs resumes; here is one, ranked beside its own list. It's the record so far, not a forecast: each team's chance of making the playoff, which also weighs how good it is and what's left on its schedule, is on the playoff odds page, which uses this ranking to pick the field.

Full regular season. AP poll: final. Committee ranking: final, before the bowls.

Biggest disagreements with the committee

Teams either list has in its top 25 whose CFP rank is furthest from their resume rank.

Ranked above their resume

  • Stanford
    9-4 · resume score 32.2 · schedule 3.8
    Resume #25
    CFP #13
  • Northwestern
    9-3 · resume score 24.6 · schedule 2.7
    Resume #27
    CFP #21
  • Washington
    10-2 · resume score 44.6 · schedule 2.4
    Resume #16
    CFP #11

Resume says higher

  • UCF
    12-0 · resume score 91.7 · schedule 2.2
    Resume #3
    CFP #12
  • Toledo
    11-2 · resume score 41.1 · schedule 2.3
    Resume #17
    CFP unranked
  • Troy
    10-2 · resume score 38.9 · schedule 2.2
    Resume #18
    CFP unranked

Every FBS team, 2017

130

Resume is how often a top-12 team, playing the same schedule, would fall short of the record, out of 100: higher is harder to match. The rule under row 12 marks the size of the playoff field.

#TeamRecordResumeAPCFP
1Georgia12-193.023
2Clemson12-192.941
3UCF12-091.7612
4Oklahoma12-190.432
5Alabama11-188.214
6Wisconsin12-184.976
7Auburn10-378.1107
8Ohio State11-276.355
9USC11-270.8128
10Miami10-270.21310
11Penn State10-263.689
12Notre Dame9-362.41114
13TCU10-352.9915
14Memphis10-246.52520
15Michigan State9-345.01516
16Washington10-244.61611
17Toledo11-241.1--
18Troy10-238.9--
19Washington State9-338.4-18
20LSU9-336.21817
21San Diego State10-235.3--
22Boise State10-334.32225
23Virginia Tech9-332.42422
24Oklahoma State9-332.31419
25Stanford9-432.22013
26NC State8-425.22324
27Northwestern9-324.61721
28Mississippi State8-424.21923
29Florida Atlantic10-319.8--
30South Florida9-218.521-
31Fresno State9-417.8--
32Michigan8-417.6--
33South Carolina8-416.5--
34Army9-315.0--
35Louisville8-413.4--
36North Texas9-412.4--
37Wake Forest7-510.7--
38Iowa7-59.9--
39Boston College7-58.2--
40Northern Illinois8-45.1--
41Arizona State7-54.7--
42Texas A&M7-54.4--
43Iowa State7-54.1--
44Kentucky7-53.8--
45Houston7-43.7--
46West Virginia7-53.5--
47Florida International8-43.1--
48Central Michigan8-43.0--
49Florida State6-63.0--
50UCLA6-62.7--
51Ohio8-42.5--
52Oregon7-52.5--
54Kansas State7-51.9--
55Arizona7-51.9--
56SMU7-51.8--
57App State8-41.3--
58Purdue6-61.3--
59Missouri7-51.3--
60Texas6-61.2--
61Akron7-61.0--
62Southern Miss8-41.0--
63Texas Tech6-61.0--
64Virginia6-60.9--
65Utah6-60.8--
66Ole Miss6-60.8--
67Georgia Tech5-60.8--
68Duke6-60.8--
69UAB8-40.7--
70Wyoming7-50.6--
71Marshall7-50.6--
72Arkansas State7-40.5--
73Colorado State7-50.5--
74Western Michigan6-60.3--
75Temple6-60.3--
76Florida4-70.2--
77California5-70.2--
78Vanderbilt5-70.2--
79Syracuse4-80.2--
80Maryland4-80.1--
81Georgia State6-50.1--
82Utah State6-60.1--
83Indiana5-70.1--
84UTSA6-50.1--
85Pittsburgh5-70.1--
86Tulane5-70.1--
87Buffalo6-60.1--
88Minnesota5-70.1--
89Nebraska4-80.1--
90Colorado5-70.1--
91Louisiana Tech6-60.1--
92New Mexico State6-60.1--
93Middle Tennessee6-6<0.1--
94Arkansas4-8<0.1--
95Air Force5-7<0.1--
96Eastern Michigan5-7<0.1--
97Tennessee4-8<0.1--
98Western Kentucky6-6<0.1--
99Old Dominion5-7<0.1--
100UNLV5-7<0.1--
101Rutgers4-8<0.1--
102Louisiana5-7<0.1--
103UL Monroe4-8<0.1--
104Cincinnati4-8<0.1--
105Miami (OH)5-7<0.1--
106North Carolina3-9<0.1--
107BYU4-9<0.1--
108South Alabama4-8<0.1--
109Massachusetts4-8<0.1--
110Idaho4-8<0.1--
111Nevada3-9<0.1--
112East Carolina3-9<0.1--
113UConn3-9<0.1--
114New Mexico3-9<0.1--
115Illinois2-10<0.1--
116Tulsa2-10<0.1--
117Hawai'i3-9<0.1--
118Kent State2-10<0.1--
119Coastal Carolina3-9<0.1--
120Bowling Green2-10<0.1--
121Ball State2-10<0.1--
122Georgia Southern2-10<0.1--
123Oregon State1-11<0.1--
124San José State2-11<0.1--
125Kansas1-11<0.1--
126Rice1-11<0.1--
127Texas State2-10<0.1--
128Baylor1-11<0.1--
129Charlotte1-11<0.1--
130UTEP0-12<0.1--

How it works

Each team's record is held up against a benchmark: the season's 12th-best FBS team, about the last at-large team into a 12-team playoff, playing the same opponents at the same sites. The resume score is how often that benchmark would fall short of the record, out of 100. An unbeaten season through a hard schedule can score above 99; a three-loss season usually scores under 50. Only wins and losses count, not margins: this is what a team has done, not how good it is.

Team strength comes from YardLine's margin-of-victory Elo rating, the same one behind each team's stock chart, built from every game since 2014. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on the day of the game, so beating a team that turned out to be good counts for more as the season goes on. The Elo column is that rating's rank: how good, beside the resume's how accomplished.

Elo's raw win chances are adjusted to match a decade of results: rating gaps count 15% more than plain Elo says, and teams below FBS are rated 310 points lower than their Elo, because the archive only sees them against FBS teams, which leaves their ratings too high. Both are fitted on every game since 2015, so a predicted 80% is won about 80% of the time.

Regular-season games only, conference championship games included: the committee ranks before the bowls and the playoff. Games update every Tuesday morning; the AP poll from its Sunday release, and the committee's ranking the morning after its Tuesday-night release.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com