Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.141st
  Defense−0.0689th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense30.8%1st
  Defense35.5%84th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3177th
  Defense+1.1772nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.079th
  Defense−0.1391st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.201st
  Defense+0.1064th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense31.5%1st
  Defense41.5%81st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.7%38th
  Defense24.4%81st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense1.881st
  Defense2.6974th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense30.4%1st
  Defense21.0%68th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense24.5%1st
  Defense17.9%76th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NORF
2. L
   VT
3. L
   ECU
4. L
   JMU
5. L
   GAST
6. W
   APP
7. L
   GASO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2026

1. Quinn HenicleQB116 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 120th of 192 QBs
   0.13WAR−0.15 to 0.37
2. Devin RocheRB65 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 48th of 320 RBs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
3. Ryan HuffQB49 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 154th of 192 QBs
   0.07WAR0.01 to 0.13
4. Josh RodriguezWR23 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 136th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.08
5. Maurki JamesRB17 plays · +0.093 pts/play · 233rd of 320 RBs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04
6. Leon Haughton Jr.TE14 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 51st of 164 TEs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.04
7. Nathanial EichnerPK8 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 49th of 82 kickers
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.05
8. Ian BrandtP24 plays · −0.037 pts/play · 81st of 84 punters
   −0.02WAR−0.06 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  544544122nd of 138Roster talent: 544, 122nd of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  134134116th of 138Recruiting: 134, 116th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  9%9%120th of 136Returning production: 9%, 120th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.9−9.9108th of 138SP+ rating so far: −9.9, 108th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ECUQ2 14:14 4th & 1 at ODU 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
2. vs ECUQ4 3:50 4th & 6 at ODU 33, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at APPQ4 1:51 4th & 4 at APP 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
4. vs ECUQ1 3:55 4th & 1 at ODU 26, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs ECUQ2 1:05 4th & 3 at ODU 44, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. at GASTQ2 1:12 4th & 6 at GAST 7, down 25Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at GASTQ1 8:40 4th & 1 at ODU 27, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. at GASTQ1 11:18 4th & 3 at GAST 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

126th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NORF
2. L

   VT
3. L

   ECU
4. L

   JMU
5. L

   GAST
6. W

   APP
7. L

   GASO

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.32
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.01
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.29

Game by game

• NORFW 31-10 vs NORF99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• VTL 21-44 at VT11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −15
• ECUL 17-20 vs ECU58% → 5%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• JMUL 20-46 vs JMU34% → 0%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −39
• GASTL 10-42 at GAST41% → 0%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts +1
• APPW 10-3 at APP25% → 94%Before kickoff −25 · On the field +69: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• GASOL 15-23 vs GASO44% → 3%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.