Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0924th
  Defense+0.0977th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.0%32nd
  Defense41.4%58th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2955th
  Defense+1.2366th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0938th
  Defense+0.0280th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1626th
  Defense+0.2053rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.4%22nd
  Defense46.9%56th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%64th
  Defense28.3%72nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0545th
  Defense2.9460th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.0%34th
  Defense15.6%34th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.0%20th
  Defense13.8%15th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WAKE
2. W
   HAMP
3. L
   LIB
4. L
   BUF
5. L
   UTEP
6. L
   MRSH
7. L
   WKU
8. W
   LT
9. W
   FIU
10. W
    FAU
11. W
    MTSU
12. W
    CLT
13. L
    TLSA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2021

1. Blake WatsonRB165 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 27th of 387 RBs
   0.74WAR0.58 to 0.89
2. D.J. Mack Jr.QB142 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 115th of 219 QBs
   0.63WAR0.34 to 0.94
3. Hayden WolffQB208 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 119th of 219 QBs
   0.56WAR0.13 to 0.95
4. Ethan DuaneP39 plays · +0.290 pts/play · 7th of 101 punters
   0.21WAR0.10 to 0.31
5. Ali JenningsWR44 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 122nd of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.20
6. Nick RicePK17 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 85th of 128 kickers
   0.06WAR−0.01 to 0.12
7. Stone SmarttQB16 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 210th of 219 QBs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
8. Isaiah SpencerTE9 plays · +0.023 pts/play · 41st of 234 TEs
   0.00WAR−0.01 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  409409104th of 130Roster talent: 409, 104th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  9393130th of 130Recruiting: 93, 130th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  No data
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.4−7.499th of 130SP+ rating: −7.4, 99th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MRSHQ3 6:14 4th & 1 at ODU 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
2. vs FAUQ4 13:50 4th & 3 at FAU 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. vs LTQ2 3:56 4th & 1 at LT 19, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. vs FAUQ2 5:00 4th & 4 at FAU 39, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at MTSUQ4 6:30 4th & 1 at ODU 44, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. at UTEPQ4 0:00 4th & 1 at ODU 42, down 5Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs FAUQ3 8:05 4th & 3 at FAU 13, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs LTQ4 12:40 4th & 3 at ODU 8, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

30th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WAKE
2. W

   HAMP
3. L

   LIB
4. L

   BUF
5. L

   UTEP
6. L

   MRSH
7. L

   WKU
8. W

   LT
9. W

   FIU
10. W

    FAU
11. W

    MTSU
12. W

    CLT
13. L

    TLSA

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.59
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.17
• Timeouts+0.19
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.99

Game by game

• WAKEL 10-42 at WAKE3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• HAMPW 47-7 vs HAMP91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• LIBL 17-45 at LIB5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −7
• BUFL 34-35 vs BUF20% → 42%Before kickoff −30 · On the field +22: Scoreboard −15, Possession & field position −1
• UTEPL 21-28 at UTEP39% → 23%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −12, Possession & field position −1
• MRSHL 13-20 at MRSH10% → 72%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +33, Clock −19
• WKUL 20-43 vs WKU22% → 0%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −28, Clock −1
• LTW 23-20 vs LT42% → 97%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +3
• FIUW 47-24 at FIU57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• FAUW 30-16 vs FAU33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +3
• MTSUW 24-17 at MTSU43% → 92%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• CLTW 56-34 vs CLT72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30, Possession & field position +1
• TLSAL 17-30 at TLSA32% → 1%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.