Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1874th
  Defense+0.1144th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.4%48th
  Defense38.8%75th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3689th
  Defense+1.3718th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1677th
  Defense+0.0655th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2574th
  Defense+0.2134th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.5%52nd
  Defense43.1%84th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.2%36th
  Defense30.8%44th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2477th
  Defense3.0147th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.3%72nd
  Defense17.6%49th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.3%44th
  Defense16.0%49th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   SC
2. L
   ECU
3. L
   VT
4. W
   BGSU
5. L
   CCU
6. W
   GAST
7. W
   TXST
8. W
   GASO
9. L
   APP
10. L
    JMU
11. L
    MRSH
12. W
    ARST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2024

1. Colton JosephQB277 plays · +0.300 pts/play · 53rd of 232 QBs
   1.56WAR1.03 to 2.11
2. Aaron YoungRB143 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 73rd of 373 RBs
   0.33WAR0.24 to 0.42
3. Grant WilsonQB111 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 153rd of 232 QBs
   0.31WAR0.12 to 0.51
4. Quinn HenicleQB48 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 189th of 232 QBs
   0.16WAR−0.02 to 0.37
5. Pat ConroyTE33 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 14th of 221 TEs
   0.15WAR0.05 to 0.25
6. Isiah PaigeWR57 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 138th of 452 WRs
   0.11WAR−0.03 to 0.26
7. Devin RocheRB37 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 264th of 373 RBs
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.11
8. Ethan SanchezPK10 plays · +0.313 pts/play · 84th of 114 kickers
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  429429128th of 131Roster talent: 429, 128th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  117117114th of 131Recruiting: 117, 114th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  56%56%46th of 130Returning production: 56%, 46th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.0−6.093rd of 131SP+ rating: −6.0, 93rd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SCQ4 3:51 4th & 2 at ODU 27, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.1 pts
2. vs MRSHQ4 2:39 4th & 5 at ODU 30, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
3. vs ECUQ4 5:58 4th & 7 at ECU 46, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. at APPQ2 1:51 4th & 1 at ODU 34, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. vs JMUQ3 0:22 4th & 2 at ODU 37, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
6. vs JMUQ3 3:52 4th & 7 at JMU 37, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. at BGSUQ3 3:12 4th & 13 at BGSU 33, down 4Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
8. at BGSUQ2 0:00 4th & 8 at BGSU 41, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored punting−1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

50th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   SC
2. L

   ECU
3. L

   VT
4. W

   BGSU
5. L

   CCU
6. W

   GAST
7. W

   TXST
8. W

   GASO
9. L

   APP
10. L

    JMU
11. L

    MRSH
12. W

    ARST

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.24
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Timeouts−0.05
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.75

Game by game

• SCL 19-23 at SC9% → 4%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −15, Clock −1
• ECUL 14-20 vs ECU51% → 13%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −43, Clock −3
• VTL 17-37 vs VT12% → 1%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −20, Clock −1
• BGSUW 30-27 at BGSU20% → 84%Before kickoff −30 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +41, Clock +3
• CCUL 37-45 at CCU37% → 1%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −2
• GASTW 21-14 at GAST44% → 94%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• TXSTW 24-14 vs TXST23% → 94%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• GASOW 47-19 vs GASO47% → 100%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +49, Clock +1
• APPL 20-28 at APP50% → 1%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• JMUL 32-35 vs JMU48% → 6%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −49, Clock −3
• MRSHL 35-42 vs MRSH59% → 8%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• ARSTW 40-32 at ARST58% → 97%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.