2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:19 · Seamus Hall punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:13: Quinn Henicle run for 65 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +3.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:14: Ethan Sanchez 28 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +3.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:43: John Love 21 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +3.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Bhayshul Tuten run for 16 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +8.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:10: Bhayshul Tuten run for 22 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 9:19ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 45, down 7Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:50VT 4th & 1 at ODU 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.8%59% to convertField goal80.3%−0.594% to makePunt79.0%−1.8average punt
- Q1 3:58ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q1 0:25VT 4th & 4 at ODU 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.1%48% to convertField goal82.8%−0.362% to makePunt80.4%−2.7average punt
- Q2 14:19ODU 4th & 13 at ODU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%average punt
- Q2 13:23VT 4th & 11 at VT 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.6%average punt
- Q2 8:04VT 4th & 10 at ODU 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snapGo for it78.3%−0.627% to convertField goalTheir call78.9%81% to makePunt75.5%−3.4average punt
- Q2 8:04VT 4th & 10 at ODU 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snapGo for it78.3%−0.627% to convertField goalTheir call78.9%81% to makePunt75.5%−3.4average punt
- Q2 5:14ODU 4th & 3 at VT 11, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.0%50% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%−0.787% to makePunt17.4%−5.6average punt
- Q2 3:59VT 4th & 10 at VT 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it70.7%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%average punt
- Q2 2:43ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q2 1:50VT 4th & 1 at VT 29, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it73.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%−1.7average punt
- Q3 13:38ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.8%−1.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q3 10:43VT 4th & 3 at ODU 3, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snapGo for it72.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call70.9%−1.693% to makePunt62.5%−10.0average punt
- Q3 8:07VT 4th & 7 at ODU 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snapGo for it77.3%−0.834% to convertField goalTheir call78.1%83% to makePunt70.8%−7.4average punt
- Q3 5:22ODU 4th & 17 at ODU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.4%−2.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q3 4:11ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.2%−1.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q4 9:01ODU 4th & 23 at ODU 12, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 5:08VT 4th & 6 at ODU 24, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%68% to makePunt98.5%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:05VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:50VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:13ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.7%97% to makeGo for two20.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55VT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:10VT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−0.297% to makeGo for two98.5%45% to convert
- Q4 3:32ODU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1TD9 plays · 76 yds · 2:5188% → 87%
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
12.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete deep left to Felton,Da'Quan thrown to ODU24 PENALTY ODU Holding (Rankin Jr.,Angelo) 10 yards from VTU29 to VTU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+14
12.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 14 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
12.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 25 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4613% → 14%
Q1 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
12.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 12 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2986% → 88%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+61
13.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 46 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (Jahron Manning) to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+9
13.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5213% → 13%
Q1 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
12.8%
Colton Joseph sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 25 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by ODU Aaron Young , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.0%
Seamus Hall punt for 51 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 9 yds to the VT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 3:3387% → 87%
ODUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4113% → 13%
VTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5687% → 87%
Q2 13:23
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
13.1%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9MISSED FG15 plays · 58 yds · 5:0484% → 84%
Q2 13:08
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+15
16.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 15 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
15.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 2 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
16.2%
John Love 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ricardo Williams Jr. Love,John field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by Williams Jr.,Ricardo (H: Moore,Peter, LS: Epling,Christian), clock 08:04 recovered by ODU Williams Jr.,Ricardo at ODU20, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10FG6 plays · 69 yds · 2:5018% → 23%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
20.0%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Isiah Paige for 14 yds to the VT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1578% → 76%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 24Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
22.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 4 yds to the VT 28Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
22.1%
PENALTY VTU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Greene,Ayden) 14 yards from VTU28 to VTU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+11
22.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 11 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Peter Moore punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1623% → 22%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
22.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henicle,Quinn pass complete short left to Conroy,Pat caught at ODU31, for 3 yards to the ODU31 (Woodson,Caleb) PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Vines,Diante) 14 yards from ODU28 to ODU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+2
22.2%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Diante Vines for 2 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
21.8%
Seamus Hall punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5378% → 77%
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5022% → 24%
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-10
23.5%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2224% → 24%
VTDrive 16FG6 plays · 68 yds · 2:5576% → 82%
ODUDrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2620% → 20%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 5
OWN 26
-11
20.9%
Quinn Henicle sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 11 yards to the ODU 15Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-3
19.8%
Quinn Henicle sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 18 Quinn Henicle fumbled, recovered by VT Antwaun Powell-Ryland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0583% → 83%
ODUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4017% → 15%
VTDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0316% → 15%
Q3 4:11
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
14.8%
Seamus Hall punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD8 plays · 59 yds · 4:1685% → 95%
Q3 4:11
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
14.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 4 yds to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:548% → 7%
VTDrive 24TD7 plays · 48 yds · 3:5195% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25PUNT7 plays · -13 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q4 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
1.7%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Isiah Paige for 4 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-15
1.7%
PENALTY ODU Personal Foul (Flores,Michael) 15 yards from ODU32 to ODU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-5
1.7%
PENALTY ODU False Start (Smith-Young,Patrick) 5 yards from ODU17 to ODU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
1.6%
Seamus Hall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the ODU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FG7 plays · 18 yds · 3:5399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:360% → 1%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
0.2%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 11 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28END OF GAME7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Bhayshul Tuten run for 16 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 10:10
Bhayshul Tuten run for 22 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 13:13
Quinn Henicle run for 65 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+3.5