Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0214th
  Defense+0.1527th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense34.3%3rd
  Defense43.6%30th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3791st
  Defense+1.1579th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.132nd
  Defense+0.0846th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1628th
  Defense+0.3515th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense40.9%2nd
  Defense49.4%28th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense23.5%8th
  Defense30.2%53rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8111th
  Defense3.1240th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.0%49th
  Defense17.2%52nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense21.5%6th
  Defense14.9%32nd

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   VT
2. L
   ECU
3. L
   UVA
4. W
   ARST
5. L
   LIB
6. W
   CCU
7. L
   GASO
8. L
   GAST
9. L
   MRSH
10. L
    JMU
11. L
    APP
12. L
    USA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2022

1. Hayden WolffQB407 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 108th of 234 QBs
   0.60WAR−0.17 to 1.45
2. Blake WatsonRB174 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 26th of 384 RBs
   0.56WAR0.41 to 0.73
3. Ali JenningsWR51 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 5th of 455 WRs
   0.34WAR0.25 to 0.45
4. Ethan DuaneP71 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 4th of 102 punters
   0.17WAR0.05 to 0.31
5. Javon HarveyWR28 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 222nd of 455 WRs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.14
6. Zack KuntzTE21 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 83rd of 214 TEs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09
7. Isaiah SpencerTE16 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 101st of 214 TEs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.07
8. Ethan SanchezPK13 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 83rd of 110 kickers
   0.04WAR0.00 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  438438100th of 129Roster talent: 438, 100th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  9696126th of 129Recruiting: 96, 126th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  79%79%20th of 128Returning production: 79%, 20th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −13.0−13.0104th of 129SP+ rating: −13.0, 104th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.28 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ARSTQ4 10:29 4th & 1 at ODU 39, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.9 pts
2. at USAQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at USA 2, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. vs VTQ4 12:30 4th & 3 at VT 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
4. vs ARSTQ3 3:12 4th & 4 at ARST 48, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. vs ARSTQ4 1:09 4th & 10 at ARST 40, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs LIBQ4 2:37 4th & 4 at LIB 24, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
7. vs JMUQ2 2:59 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs MRSHQ2 4:27 4th & 4 at midfield, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

109th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   VT
2. L

   ECU
3. L

   UVA
4. W

   ARST
5. L

   LIB
6. W

   CCU
7. L

   GASO
8. L

   GAST
9. L

   MRSH
10. L

    JMU
11. L

    APP
12. L

    USA

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.84
• Clock−0.07
• Timeouts−0.01
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.72

Game by game

• VTW 20-17 vs VT37% → 95%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• ECUL 21-39 at ECU18% → 1%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts +1
• UVAL 14-16 at UVA25% → 4%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −26
• ARSTW 29-26 vs ARST67% → 89%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position +2
• LIBL 24-38 vs LIB46% → 1%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −50, Clock −1
• CCUW 49-21 at CCU22% → 100%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +69, Other +1
• GASOL 23-28 vs GASO56% → 3%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −52, Clock −2
• GASTL 17-31 at GAST41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2
• MRSHL 0-12 vs MRSH41% → 2%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −46, Clock −2
• JMUL 3-37 vs JMU35% → 0%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −39, Clock −2
• APPL 14-27 at APP15% → 1%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts −1
• USAL 20-27 at USA16% → 3%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.