2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:45 · Ethan Duane punt for 45 yds , Tyler Page returns for no gain to the AppSt 10 Tyler Page fumbled, recovered by AppSt DJ VanHook
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:20: Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 35 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +2.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:43: Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:20: Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 09:20 — APP win probability +3.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:04: Michael Hughes 40 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:20: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 13:45ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q1 10:11APP 4th & 10 at ODU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.2%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call84.2%88% to makePunt83.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:50APP 4th & 6 at APP 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q1 2:57ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 13:54ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q2 11:51ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.4%−1.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q2 2:44ODU 4th & 7 at APP 7, down 24Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%−0.228% to convertField goal5.3%91% to makePunt2.7%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:24APP 4th & 1 at APP 29, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q3 14:54APP 4th & 4 at ODU 35, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%48% to convertField goal95.3%−0.545% to makePunt95.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:04APP 4th & 2 at ODU 22, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.5%57% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%−0.372% to makePunt94.4%−2.1average punt
- Q3 8:51ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 30, down 27Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:29APP 4th & 10 at APP 39, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 0:19ODU 4th & 8 at APP 31, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.2%54% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:47APP 4th & 27 at ODU 34, up 27Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.37% to convertField goal99.8%47% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:41APP 4th & 5 at APP 41, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ODU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q1 0:20APP Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:43APP Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:43APP Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:05ODU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.1%45% to convert
- Q4 2:20ODU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1515% → 15%
Q1 13:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 45 yds , Tyler Page returns for no gain to the AppSt 10 Tyler Page fumbled, recovered by AppSt DJ VanHookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3485% → 84%
ODUDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0316% → 17%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marquez Bell for 11 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
84.2%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 27Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+47
84.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 47 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
83.3%
Brendon Clark run for 1 yd to the AppSt 20 Brendon Clark fumbled, recovered by AppSt Hansky PaillantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1884% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 3:5317% → 17%
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marquez Bell for 11 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
50
-9
83.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Caden Sullivan for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 41 Hayden Wolff fumbled, recovered by ODU Hayden Wolff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+5
83.5%
PENALTY APP Offside (Haigler,Kevon) 5 yards from ODU41 to ODU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
82.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD7 plays · 93 yds · 2:3782% → 85%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
82.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 19 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+23
82.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 23 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
84.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 35 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0616% → 15%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
84.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 4 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
84.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 5 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
89.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4611% → 11%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Blake rush left for 5 yards gain to the ODU30, out of bounds at ODU30 PENALTY ODU Holding (Harvey,Javon) 10 yards from ODU25 to ODU15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD9 plays · 60 yds · 4:0890% → 95%
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+7
90.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 7 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11DOWNS16 plays · 58 yds · 4:527% → 6%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
93.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 21 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
92.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 8 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
92.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
92.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 7 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
92.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass complete short right to Watson,Blake for 6 yards to the APP17 (Doublin,Logan) PENALTY ODU Illegal Formation 5 yards from APP23 to APP28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+25
92.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 25 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
92.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ronald Clarke) to the AppSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
92.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Blake rush middle for 3 yards loss to the APP05 (McKnight,DeShawn) PENALTY ODU Illegal Formation (Saunders,Santana) 5 yards from APP02 to APP07. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2096% → 96%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 8 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
95.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
96.0%
Clayton Howell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 19 yds · 0:246% → 6%
APPDrive 14FG13 plays · 56 yds · 4:5096% → 99%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
95.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin Robinson for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tobias Harris) to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
96.0%
Chase Brice run for 10 yds to the AppSt 49 Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by AppSt Chase BriceSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+5
95.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 5 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:071% → 1%
APPDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
99.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-10
99.4%
Shotgun Brice,Chase rush middle for 3 yards gain to the APP43 (Britt,Malcolm) PENALTY APP Holding (Hodges,Cooper) 10 yards from APP40 to APP30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+9
99.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for 9 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 16 , Alonzo Ford Jr. returns for 4 yds to the ODU 43 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Illegal Block (Tre Hawkins III) to the ODU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17DOWNS14 plays · 53 yds · 6:100% → 0%
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-5
99.5%
PENALTY ODU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ODU32 to ODU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+20
99.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 20 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 7 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-5
99.4%
PENALTY ODU False Start (Dubose-Bourne,Stephon) 5 yards from APP25 to APP30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 5:13100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 14 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 18 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-12
99.8%
Chase Brice sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 12 yards to the ODU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OPP 29
-5
99.8%
Chase Brice sacked by Kris Caine for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:420% → 1%
APPDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
Q4 3:41
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 25 , Isiah Paige returns for 4 yds to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:211% → 4%
Q4 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marqeese Dietz for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marqeese Dietz for 7 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+18
99.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marqeese Dietz for 18 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
96.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22END OF GAME7 plays · 47 yds · 2:2098% → 99%
Q4 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+1
98.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the ODU 38 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive Offside (R'Tarriun Johnson) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:43
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
+4.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 9:20
Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 09:20
+3.2
FG · Q3 10:04
Michael Hughes 40 yd FG GOOD
+3.2