Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2789th
  Defense+0.302nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.6%79th
  Defense51.1%2nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3290th
  Defense+1.1475th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2793rd
  Defense+0.2212th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2872nd
  Defense+0.442nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.2%73rd
  Defense53.9%2nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.7%87th
  Defense43.4%2nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2687th
  Defense3.463rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.1%83rd
  Defense14.7%8th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.1%45th
  Defense2.0%53rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   HAMP
2. L
   NCSU
3. W
   EMU
4. W
   RICE
5. L
   MTSU
6. L
   MRSH
7. L
   UTEP
8. L
   WKU
9. L
   VAN
10. W
    FIU
11. W
    LT
12. W
    FAU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2014

1. Taylor HeinickeQB421 plays · +0.239 pts/play · 35th of 199 QBs
   1.88WAR1.09 to 2.62
2. Ray LawryRB125 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 45th of 350 RBs
   0.36WAR0.24 to 0.48
3. Antonio VaughanWR68 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 33rd of 469 WRs
   0.29WAR0.17 to 0.41
4. Zach PascalWR73 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 111th of 469 WRs
   0.16WAR0.04 to 0.27
5. Gerard JohnsonRB94 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 163rd of 350 RBs
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.21
6. David WashingtonQB48 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 187th of 199 QBs
   0.06WAR−0.02 to 0.14
7. Jonathan DuhartWR8 plays · +0.257 pts/play · 375th of 469 WRs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.05
8. Marques LittleWR9 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 405th of 469 WRs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FAUQ4 10:25 4th & 3 at ODU 17, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. at NCSUQ4 10:35 4th & 7 at ODU 21, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
3. at FAUQ1 2:25 4th & 2 at ODU 28, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. at RICEQ1 5:02 4th & 4 at RICE 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. vs EMUQ1 6:27 4th & 2 at ODU 37, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at WKUQ2 14:17 4th & 9 at WKU 32, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at UTEPQ4 15:00 4th & 7 at UTEP 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. at WKUQ1 3:16 4th & 5 at WKU 49, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

51st of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 11 of 12 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   HAMP
2. L

   NCSU
3. W

   EMU
4. W

   RICE
5. L

   MTSU
6. L

   MRSH
7. L

   UTEP
8. L

   WKU
9. L

   VAN
10. W

    FIU
11. W

    LT
12. W

    FAU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.03
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.22

Game by game

• HAMPW 41-28 vs HAMP93% → 98%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• NCSUL 34-46 at NCSU12% → 4%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −17, Clock −1
• EMUW 17-3 vs EMU82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• RICEW 45-42 at RICE27% → 96%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +69: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• MTSUL 28-41 vs MTSU54% → 2%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• MRSHL 14-56 vs MRSH12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −17
• UTEPL 35-42 at UTEP50% → 4%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −1
• WKUL 51-66 at WKU22% → 2%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −1
• VANL 28-42 at VAN24% → 1%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26, Possession & field position −1
• FIUW 38-35 vs FIU59% → 96%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +33, Possession & field position +1
• FAUW 31-28 at FAU37% → 95%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +52, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.