Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0317th
  Defense+0.0577th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.5%18th
  Defense44.0%28th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3688th
  Defense+1.0998th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1363rd
  Defense−0.1095th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.026th
  Defense+0.2636th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.0%8th
  Defense49.4%24th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.3%48th
  Defense30.3%45th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1048th
  Defense2.7589th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.3%20th
  Defense19.5%73rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense20.1%8th
  Defense16.6%56th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   VT
2. W
   UL
3. L
   WAKE
4. W
   ETAM
5. L
   MRSH
6. W
   USM
7. W
   APP
8. L
   JMU
9. L
   CCU
10. L
    LIB
11. W
    GASO
12. W
    GAST
13. L
    WKU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2023

1. Grant WilsonQB371 plays · +0.191 pts/play · 66th of 250 QBs
   1.32WAR0.51 to 2.12
2. Keshawn WicksRB129 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 91st of 383 RBs
   0.26WAR0.17 to 0.36
3. Kadarius CallowayRB82 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 137th of 383 RBs
   0.20WAR0.12 to 0.28
4. Javon HarveyWR23 plays · +0.305 pts/play · 132nd of 457 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.20
5. Obie SanniRB55 plays · +0.085 pts/play · 248th of 383 RBs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13
6. Ethan SanchezPK15 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 81st of 113 kickers
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.11
7. Ethan DuaneP40 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 87th of 103 punters
   0.05WAR0.00 to 0.11
8. Ahmarian GrangerWR14 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 286th of 457 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  343343121st of 130Roster talent: 343, 121st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  8787125th of 130Recruiting: 87, 125th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  21%21%116th of 128Returning production: 21%, 116th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −10.1−10.1100th of 130SP+ rating: −10.1, 100th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.19 of the 0.22 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs APPQ4 1:08 4th & 10 at APP 40, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−7.5 pts
2. at GASOQ3 9:25 4th & 1 at GASO 23, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. at USMQ3 6:12 4th & 1 at ODU 35, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
4. vs GASTQ4 6:09 4th & 19 at ODU 31, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.4 pts
5. vs CCUQ3 3:56 4th & 4 at CCU 44, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs WKUQ2 2:01 4th & 1 at ODU 34, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. vs APPQ3 10:54 4th & 3 at APP 29, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. vs ETAMQ3 11:03 4th & 7 at ETAM 27, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

19th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   VT
2. W

   UL
3. L

   WAKE
4. W

   ETAM
5. L

   MRSH
6. W

   USM
7. W

   APP
8. L

   JMU
9. L

   CCU
10. L

    LIB
11. W

    GASO
12. W

    GAST
13. L

    WKU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.74
• Possession & field position−0.08
• Clock+0.18
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+1.43

Game by game

• VTL 17-36 at VT10% → 1%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −14
• ULW 38-31 vs UL25% → 96%Before kickoff −25 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +3
• WAKEL 24-27 vs WAKE13% → 5%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −24, Clock −1
• ETAMW 10-9 vs ETAM68% → 96%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +2
• MRSHL 35-41 at MRSH16% → 3%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts −1
• USMW 17-13 at USM34% → 98%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +11
• APPW 28-21 vs APP29% → 90%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• JMUL 27-30 at JMU12% → 11%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −14, Possession & field position −1
• CCUL 24-28 vs CCU40% → 15%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2
• LIBL 10-38 at LIB15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1
• GASOW 20-17 at GASO29% → 96%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• GASTW 25-24 vs GAST50% → 94%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +2
• WKUL 35-38 vs WKU52% → 12%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −19

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.