2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:39 · Ian Brandt punt for 40 yds, downed at the LIB 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:44: Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 1:37: Aaron Bedgood run for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST down — LIB win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:20: Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +3.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:03: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:54: Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 11:30LIB 4th & 4 at ODU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.1%48% to convertField goal81.0%−0.128% to makePunt81.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:59ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q1 3:51ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 43, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.9%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q1 3:23LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 21, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it83.9%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q2 8:30ODU 4th & 7 at LIB 39, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%37% to convertField goal7.7%−0.136% to makePunt7.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:58ODU 4th & 2 at LIB 33, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%57% to convertField goal3.2%−0.149% to makePunt3.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:20ODU 4th & 10 at LIB 20, down 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call3.0%75% to makePunt2.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:58ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 33, down 33Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:09LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, up 33Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it99.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:39ODU 4th & 17 at LIB 39, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.115% to convertField goal0.5%−<0.136% to makePunt0.6%average punt
- Q3 4:13LIB 4th & 4 at ODU 22, up 33Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−<0.172% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:04ODU 4th & 8 at LIB 38, down 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%35% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.138% to makePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:55ODU 4th & 7 at LIB 13, down 36Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.2%85% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:30LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 13, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 12:54ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 41, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:39ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 11, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.124% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:01LIB 4th & 3 at ODU 44, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.127% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:30LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:44LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick83.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:20LIB Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:03LIB Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:54LIB Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLIBDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3085% → 85%
ODUDrive 2PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 2:3116% → 16%
LIBDrive 3TD8 plays · 53 yds · 3:1584% → 87%
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
84.4%
Liberty Penalty, Illegal Snap on WHITE, Jordan enforced (Jordan White) to the ODU 22Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+15
84.4%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ broken up by JAMES, LaMareon at the ODU0. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on JAMES, LaMareon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ODU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4715% → 14%
LIBDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2889% → 88%
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
88.3%
Max Morgan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6INT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4614% → 15%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
85.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 8 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-8
85.7%
Grant Wilson sacked by Chris Boti for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 41Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+15
84.8%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (TJ Bush) to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD12 plays · 57 yds · 5:1789% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 31 yds · 2:507% → 7%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 9 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
92.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 1 yd to the ODU 46Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+12
92.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Obie Sanni for 12 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2795% → 97%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
95.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 1 yd to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+18
95.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 18 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+42
97.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10FG11 plays · 56 yds · 2:383% → 4%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
97.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 7 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
97.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
97.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 8 yds to the LIB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2696% → 99%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
95.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Kylen Austin for 26 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · -5 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q2 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
98.8%
WILSON, Grant pass to the left incomplete intended for MURPHY, Reymello thrown to the LIB46. PENALTY ODU Holding on THOMAS, Leroy enforced 10 yards from the ODU44 to the ODU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
99.2%
Grant Wilson sacked by Bryce Dixon for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 27 yds · 4:301% → 1%
Q3 12:09
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+8
99.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 8 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 4 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
99.0%
Grant Wilson sacked by CJ Bazile Jr. and Tyren Dupree for a loss of 4 yards to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-5
99.1%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Kelby Williams) to the LIB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG8 plays · 39 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-15
99.5%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (X'Zauvea Gadlin) to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
99.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 18 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Durocher for 6 yds to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 4:090% → 0%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 4 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for no gain to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 5 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+22
99.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 22 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
ODUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 5 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 1 yd to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Ian Brandt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT11 plays · 75 yds · 5:31100% → 100%
Q4 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for AUSTIN, Kylen thrown to the ODU13. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Khian'Dre enforced 15 yards to the LIB50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+27
99.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 27 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to James Jointer Jr. for 7 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:440% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
WILSON, Grant pass deep to the left intercepted by JIMMERSON, Jaylon at the LIB18 intended for PAIGE, Isiah. Jimmerson return for 0 yards to the LIB18, End of Play, clock 03:54. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on AUGUSTE, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the LIB41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 1:37
Aaron Bedgood run for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST down
+4.3
TD · Q2 11:20
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q2 0:54
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+2.1