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Transfer portal rankings

Portal rankings usually count recruiting stars. These count production: the wins above replacement each transfer put up the season before he moved, summed for every FBS team's arrivals and departures, and what each one has done since.

Moves made for the 2023 season, valued by the 2022 season; 2023 WAR for the full season beside it.

Biggest moves

The 25 transfers with the most WAR in 2022, at their old school, and their WAR in 2023 after the move. A dash means no FBS snaps that season.

#Player20222023
1Sam HartmanQB · 4★Wake Forest → Notre Dame3.021.42
2Austin AuneQB · 3★North Texas → undecided2.05-
3Spencer SandersQB · 3★Oklahoma State → Ole Miss1.950.01
4Tanner MordecaiQB · 4★SMU → Wisconsin1.831.32
5Payton ThorneQB · 3★Michigan State → Auburn1.761.37
6Ben BryantQB · 3★Cincinnati → Northwestern1.681.40
7Brennan ArmstrongQB · 4★Virginia → NC State1.381.15
8Casey ThompsonQB · 3★Nebraska → Florida Atlantic1.270.20
9Collin SchleeQB · 4★Kent State → UCLA1.090.33
10Haaziq DanielsQB · 2★Air Force → undecided1.04-
11Connor BazelakQB · 4★Indiana → Bowling Green1.020.55
12Drew PyneQB · 3★Notre Dame → Arizona State1.020.12
13Davis BrinQB · 3★Tulsa → Georgia Southern0.970.86
14Dylan HopkinsQB · 3★UAB → New Mexico0.950.76
15Phil JurkovecQB · 3★Boston College → Pittsburgh0.930.19
16DJ UiagaleleiQB · 4★Clemson → Oregon State0.891.32
17Layne HatcherQB · 3★Texas State → Ball State0.840.07
18Daniel RichardsonQB · 3★Central Michigan → Florida Atlantic0.830.66
19Chandler RogersQBUL Monroe → North Texas0.701.45
20Jeff SimsQB · 4★Georgia Tech → Nebraska0.700.27
21JT DanielsQB · 5★West Virginia → Rice0.691.26
22Carson SteeleRB · 4★Ball State → UCLA0.670.43
23Donovan SmithQB · 3★Texas Tech → Houston0.611.63
24Hayden WolffQB · 3★Old Dominion → Western Michigan0.600.67
25Marquez CooperRB · 3★Kent State → Ball State0.570.56

Every FBS team, 2023

133

In is the arrivals' WAR in 2022 at their old schools, Out the departures' WAR here that season, and Net the difference.

#TeamInOutNet
1Ole Miss2.440.01+2.43
2Auburn2.440.07+2.37
3UCLA2.050.07+1.98
4Florida Atlantic2.100.17+1.94
5Notre Dame3.271.47+1.80
6Northwestern1.680.20+1.49
7Wisconsin2.030.68+1.35
8BYU1.280.01+1.26
9New Mexico1.10−0.03+1.13
10Bowling Green1.020.16+0.86
11Houston0.800.00+0.80
12Arizona State1.300.55+0.74
12Minnesota0.920.18+0.75
14Louisville1.120.41+0.71
15Rice0.690.00+0.69
16Georgia Southern0.970.29+0.68
17Oregon State0.890.27+0.62
18NC State1.440.87+0.57
19Ball State1.410.92+0.49
20USC0.520.08+0.44
20Purdue0.500.06+0.43
22Florida0.550.14+0.41
23TCU0.440.03+0.40
24Georgia0.370.02+0.35
25Fresno State0.350.02+0.34
25North Carolina0.340.00+0.34
27Jacksonville State0.320.00+0.32
28Pittsburgh0.940.63+0.30
28Washington0.380.08+0.31
30LSU0.320.02+0.30
31Kentucky0.400.11+0.29
31Maryland0.350.07+0.29
33Penn State0.330.07+0.25
34Oregon0.280.04+0.24
34South Alabama0.240.00+0.24
34Liberty0.240.00+0.24
34Kansas State0.230.00+0.23
38Virginia Tech0.650.43+0.21
39Utah0.200.00+0.20
40East Carolina0.210.02+0.19
40App State0.200.00+0.20
42Memphis0.770.61+0.17
42Baylor0.390.22+0.17
42Illinois0.300.13+0.16
42Michigan0.160.00+0.16
46Oklahoma0.150.00+0.15
47Nevada0.130.00+0.13
47Alabama0.120.00+0.12
49Temple0.120.01+0.11
49Arkansas State0.100.00+0.10
51Western Michigan0.850.76+0.09
52Tennessee0.080.00+0.08
53Ohio State0.070.00+0.07
54Arkansas0.240.20+0.04
54James Madison0.050.00+0.05
54Tulane0.050.00+0.05
57Mississippi State0.640.60+0.04
58Kansas0.100.07+0.03
59Sam Houston0.000.000.00
59San Diego State0.000.000.00
59Hawai'i0.000.000.00
59Duke0.000.000.00
59Rutgers0.000.000.00
59Army0.000.000.00
59UTEP0.000.000.00
66Wyoming0.410.42−0.01
66Florida State0.330.33−0.01
66Coastal Carolina0.000.01−0.01
66Iowa State0.000.01−0.01
70Colorado0.400.43−0.03
70UTSA0.170.18−0.02
70Syracuse0.000.02−0.02
70Massachusetts0.000.02−0.02
74Washington State0.170.21−0.03
74Marshall0.030.07−0.04
76Louisiana0.000.06−0.06
77Louisiana Tech0.530.59−0.07
77South Carolina0.280.35−0.07
79Troy0.200.28−0.07
80New Mexico State0.000.08−0.08
80Ohio0.000.09−0.09
80Miami (OH)0.000.09−0.09
80Stanford0.000.08−0.08
84Toledo0.000.10−0.10
85San José State0.000.12−0.12
85Akron0.000.11−0.11
85Utah State0.000.12−0.12
88Iowa0.000.13−0.13
89Middle Tennessee0.170.30−0.14
89Colorado State0.010.15−0.14
91Buffalo0.000.15−0.15
92Eastern Michigan0.010.17−0.16
93Texas A&M0.030.22−0.19
93Navy0.000.20−0.20
95UConn0.010.22−0.21
95Southern Miss0.000.21−0.21
97Missouri0.120.34−0.23
98Charlotte0.000.25−0.25
99California0.751.01−0.26
99Arizona0.000.26−0.26
101Boise State0.000.28−0.28
102UCF0.050.35−0.30
103Miami0.000.31−0.31
104Western Kentucky0.050.36−0.31
105Georgia State0.000.38−0.38
106Texas0.100.50−0.39
106Florida International0.000.40−0.40
108Vanderbilt0.010.46−0.45
109Georgia Tech0.370.86−0.49
110Northern Illinois0.070.58−0.51
111UAB0.380.95−0.57
112South Florida0.130.72−0.59
113Nebraska0.741.40−0.67
114Texas Tech0.000.69−0.69
115UNLV0.100.80−0.70
116Boston College0.321.03−0.70
117Texas State0.120.89−0.77
118West Virginia0.231.07−0.83
119Clemson0.000.94−0.94
120Tulsa0.000.97−0.97
121Central Michigan0.000.99−0.99
122Air Force0.001.04−1.04
123Indiana0.181.26−1.08
124UL Monroe0.001.09−1.09
125Cincinnati0.701.86−1.16
126Virginia0.241.41−1.17
127Old Dominion0.001.50−1.50
128North Texas0.782.34−1.56
129SMU0.221.98−1.76
130Kent State0.062.01−1.95
131Michigan State0.142.11−1.98
132Oklahoma State0.352.41−2.06
133Wake Forest0.003.20−3.20

How it works

Each player's value is YardLine's wins above replacement: every play's expected points credited to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, against a typical backup. Only quarterbacks, skill players and specialists have a number of their own, because public play-by-play doesn't say which linemen or defenders were on the field. So a team that rebuilt its offensive line through the portal gets no credit for it here; the move counts show every position.

A move is valued by the season before it, so a team's portal class can be ranked as soon as the window closes, and the season after shows how it played out. WAR counts only snaps between FBS teams while the game was in doubt, so a transfer up from the FCS shows a dash before the move and adds nothing to his new team's In.

CFBD's portal list names players but doesn't identify them, so each entry is matched to the rosters of both schools. That ties about 19 in 20 skill-position transfers to a player; the rest count in the moves but add no WAR. The list updates every Tuesday.

YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com