Georgia Tech

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2074th
  Defense+0.1820th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.9%70th
  Defense46.9%5th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3276th
  Defense+1.2070th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2089th
  Defense+0.2011th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3378th
  Defense+0.2926th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.4%76th
  Defense52.7%4th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%58th
  Defense31.6%32nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4494th
  Defense3.572nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.4%75th
  Defense13.4%13th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%84th
  Defense15.4%30th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia Tech allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   LOU
2. W
   SCST
3. L
   MISS
4. W
   WAKE
5. L
   BGSU
6. W
   MIA
7. L
   BC
8. W
   UNC
9. W
   UVA
10. L
    CLEM
11. W
    SYR
12. L
    UGA
13. W
    UCF

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia Tech.

Players, 2023

1. Haynes KingQB370 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 48th of 250 QBs
   1.49WAR0.79 to 2.21
2. Jamal HaynesRB136 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 77th of 383 RBs
   0.28WAR0.17 to 0.38
3. Dontae SmithRB82 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 120th of 383 RBs
   0.22WAR0.16 to 0.29
4. Eric Singleton Jr.WR35 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 172nd of 457 WRs
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.18
5. Aidan BirrPK14 plays · +0.356 pts/play · 42nd of 113 kickers
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
6. Malik RutherfordWR34 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 240th of 457 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.14
7. Trey CooleyRB36 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 282nd of 383 RBs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08
8. David ShanahanP37 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 78th of 103 punters
   0.06WAR−0.03 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia Tech's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  71171136th of 130Roster talent: 711, 36th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19519542nd of 130Recruiting: 195, 42nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%96th of 128Returning production: 37%, 96th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +0.3+0.364th of 130SP+ rating: +0.3, 64th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia Tech's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UCFQ3 12:07 4th & 1 at UCF 12, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at MIAQ4 12:11 4th & 4 at MIA 9, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. at MISSQ4 10:37 4th & 8 at MISS 15, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at MISSQ3 8:00 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
5. at UVAQ3 1:53 4th & 4 at UVA 43, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at MISSQ2 1:13 4th & 3 at MISS 5, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs UGAQ1 0:35 4th & 1 at UGA 8, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. vs BGSUQ2 7:19 4th & 10 at GT 47, up 4Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

21st of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia Tech's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   LOU
2. W

   SCST
3. L

   MISS
4. W

   WAKE
5. L

   BGSU
6. W

   MIA
7. L

   BC
8. W

   UNC
9. W

   UVA
10. L

    CLEM
11. W

    SYR
12. L

    UGA
13. W

    UCF

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Georgia Tech's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.95
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts+0.04
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.85

Game by game

• LOUL 34-39 vs LOU30% → 34%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +5: Scoreboard −28, Possession & field position +4
• SCSTW 48-13 vs SCST99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• MISSL 23-48 at MISS11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −14, Clock −1
• WAKEW 30-16 at WAKE39% → 99%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +59, Clock +3
• BGSUL 27-38 vs BGSU93% → 3%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −90: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• MIAW 23-20 at MIA8% → 80%Before kickoff −42 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• BCL 23-38 vs BC65% → 1%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −59, Clock −3
• UNCW 46-42 vs UNC17% → 96%Before kickoff −33 · On the field +79: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +4
• UVAW 45-17 at UVA47% → 100%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +54
• CLEML 21-42 at CLEM12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −16
• SYRW 31-22 vs SYR64% → 96%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• UGAL 23-31 vs UGA5% → 2%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −13, Clock −1
• UCFW 30-17 at UCF30% → 99%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +69: Scoreboard +61, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Georgia Tech's side.

Closest call

GT 28-27 VT (2022) - Georgia Tech dropped to a 3.3% win probability before pulling it out.