2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:29 · David Shanahan punt for 37 yds , Hamp Greene returns for 7 yds to the GT 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:36: Haynes King run for 4 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +2.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:45: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:17: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:09: Will Shipley run for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:05: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 14:06GT 4th & 2 at GT 33, tiedClose callPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it15.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:50CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.6%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.6%average punt
- Q1 10:20GT 4th & 12 at GT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q1 10:20GT 4th & 12 at GT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q1 8:48CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 21, tiedClose callWent for it · 83.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.0%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.2%average punt
- Q1 6:36CLEM 4th & 7 at GT 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.0%37% to convertField goal80.9%−0.138% to makePunt80.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.9%71% to convertField goal75.8%−1.189% to makePunt72.5%−4.3average punt
- Q2 10:29GT 4th & 23 at GT 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snapGo for it19.8%−1.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q2 10:29CLEM 4th & 4 at GT 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.4%48% to convertField goal78.9%−0.442% to makePunt78.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:19GT 4th & 13 at CLEM 38, down 7Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.321% to convertField goal16.3%38% to makePuntTheir call16.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:36CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.2%70% to convertField goal82.0%−1.332% to makePunt81.9%−1.4average punt
- Q3 11:19CLEM 4th & 11 at GT 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.8%−0.227% to convertField goal89.7%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call90.0%average punt
- Q3 10:38GT 4th & 11 at GT 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.4%−0.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q3 5:01GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 0:27CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 43, up 21Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%70% to convertField goal97.5%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call97.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 14:22GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:46GT 4th & 10 at GT 36, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:01CLEM 4th & 6 at GT 33, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.149% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:45GT 4th & 5 at GT 38, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:36GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.6%97% to makeGo for two18.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:45CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:17CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:09CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:05CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:22CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:46CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:11GT Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:49GT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5412% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1688% → 88%
Q1 12:50
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
87.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3012% → 13%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-3
87.7%
Haynes King sacked by Justin Mascoll for a loss of 3 yards to the GT 25Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+5
87.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 5 yds to the GT 31Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
87.1%
David Shanahan punt for 38 yds , Hamp Greene returns for no gain to the CLEM 29Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
87.1%
David Shanahan punt for 39 yds , Hamp Greene returns for no gain to the CLEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3287% → 86%
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 6 yds to the CLEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD4 plays · 25 yds · 2:1214% → 17%
Q1 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
86.0%
Haynes King sacked by Wade Woodaz for a loss of 3 yards to the CLEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD19 plays · 75 yds · 9:5184% → 83%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
84.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 20 yds to the CLEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-3
84.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 12 yds to the CLEM 37 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jake Briningstool) to the CLEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
84.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 9 yds to the GT 43Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
84.5%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Andre White for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 44Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+6
84.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the GT 38Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+20
84.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 20 yds to the GT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 1:1619% → 18%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the GT 21Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-9
81.6%
Haynes King sacked by Jeremiah Trotter Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the GT 12Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+7
81.9%
David Shanahan punt for 37 yds , Hamp Greene returns for 7 yds to the GT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1283% → 86%
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+6
82.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the GT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
83.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 19 yds to the GT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
86.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 1:5815% → 14%
Q2 5:19
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
85.9%
David Shanahan punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD11 plays · 92 yds · 4:1086% → 91%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 6 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
86.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
86.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass complete short right to Collins,Beaux for 18 yards to the GT26 (Wallace,KJ) PENALTY CLEM Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Sadler,Collin) 5 yards from GT44 to GT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-9
86.8%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Kyle Efford for a loss of 9 yards to the CLEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11INT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:2810% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12MISSED FG5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4192% → 92%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
92.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the GT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:4191% → 91%
GTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:419% → 9%
Q3 10:38
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
91.2%
David Shanahan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3392% → 97%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
92.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 10 yds to the GT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
92.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 13 yds to the GT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:043% → 2%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the GT 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
96.9%
Haynes King sacked by DeMonte Capehart for a loss of 8 yards to the GT 20Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
97.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 11 yds to the GT 31Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.6%
David Shanahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18INT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:103% → 3%
Q3 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+11
97.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 11 yds to the CLEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1998% → 98%
Q3 0:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20INT2 plays · -1 yds · 0:051% → 1%
CLEMDrive 21TD4 plays · 31 yds · 0:3399% → 100%
Q4 14:22
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22INT TD9 plays · 11 yds · 1:360% → 0%
GTDrive 23TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:350% → 0%
CLEMDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 17 yds · 4:09100% → 100%
Q4 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Helms,Hunter pass complete short right to Patt-Henry,Olsen for 16 yards to the GT19 (Powell-Lee,Clayton), out of bounds PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Randall,Adam) 15 yards from GT35 to GT50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Domonique rush middle for 0 yards to the GT43 (Shelley,Rodney) PENALTY CLEM Holding (Owens,Zack) 10 yards from GT43 to CLEM47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25TD17 plays · 67 yds · 4:120% → 1%
Q4 4:45
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the GT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
99.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 18 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+14
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun King,Haynes pass incomplete short right to Blaylock,Dominick QB hurried by Hoffler,A.J. PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Lewis,Shelton) 14 yards from CLEM16 to CLEM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+12
100.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Benson for 12 yds to the CLEM 4Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 4 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 21 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Will Shipley run for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q3 7:05
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 7:17
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
+3.1