2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:43 · David Shanahan punt for 27 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:37: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 14 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:33: Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:13: Terion Stewart run for 6 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +30.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:28: Deshawn Jones Jr. 45 Yd Interception Return (Alan Anaya Kick) — BGSU win probability +18.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:25: Malik Rutherford 15 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +10.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:35BGSU 4th & 13 at GT 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q1 2:43GT 4th & 8 at GT 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q2 14:46BGSU 4th & 9 at GT 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.132% to convertField goal10.7%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q2 13:56GT 4th & 11 at GT 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.4%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%average punt
- Q2 8:27BGSU 4th & 14 at GT 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.717% to convertField goalTheir call11.7%72% to makePunt9.5%−2.2average punt
- Q2 7:19GT 4th & 10 at GT 47, up 4Close callWent for it · 85.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.2%average punt
- Q2 7:19BGSU 4th & 7 at GT 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.1%37% to convertField goal14.9%−0.240% to makePunt14.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:19GT 4th & 1 at BGSU 14, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.0%71% to convertField goal51.4%−2.684% to makePunt42.9%−11.0average punt
- Q3 2:23GT 4th & 4 at BGSU 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%48% to convertField goal10.4%−0.460% to makePunt6.9%−4.0average punt
- Q4 13:23BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.9%average punt
- Q4 4:01BGSU 4th & 15 at GT 35, up 18Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.3%−0.317% to convertField goal97.6%45% to makePunt97.3%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 14:43GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:40GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:16BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.0%97% to makeGo for two10.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:37BGSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.0%97% to makeGo for two22.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:33BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:13BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:28BGSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:25GT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick13.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call13.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:35GT Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two4.8%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1TD1 play · 53 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
93.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 53 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:087% → 8%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.9%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on MOALA, Paul enforced (Paul Moala) to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
92.7%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Eddie Kelly and Zeek Biggers for a loss of 10 yards to the BGSU 46Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+7
92.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 7 yds to the GT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:5593% → 93%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
92.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 20 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
92.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 6 yds to the BGSU 26Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+15
92.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 15 yds to the BGSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 11 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:247% → 9%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
92.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Andrew Bench for 8 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
92.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 10 yds to the GT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
92.2%
(04:53) QB Keeper ORTH, Camden rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards to the GT5, End of Play. PENALTY GT Personal Foul on KELLY, Eddie enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the GT2 to the GT1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2891% → 91%
Q1 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
91.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Trey Cooley for a loss of 5 yards to the GT 25Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-5
91.2%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (Eric Singleton Jr.) to the GT 20Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+11
91.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 11 yds to the GT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:579% → 10%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Andrew Bench for 2 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
90.2%
(01:35) HILIARE, Odieu rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the GT32, out of bounds. PENALTY BG Holding enforced 10 yards from the GT45 to the BG45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+6
90.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 6 yds to the GT 49Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
90.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 5 yds to the GT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5091% → 90%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
90.0%
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Odieu Hiliare) to the BGSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8FG11 plays · 42 yds · 5:2910% → 13%
Q2 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+27
89.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Terion Stewart for 27 yds to the GT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
89.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Kevin Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the GT 36Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+17
89.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 17 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-10
89.3%
Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0287% → 87%
Q2 7:19
4TH & 10
OWN 47
-7
86.5%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the GT 40 fumbled, recovered by BGSU Finn HoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4215% → 22%
Q2 7:19
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+5
86.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the GT 37Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+10
86.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the GT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+8
85.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 8 yds to the GT 26Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
77.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 14 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 1:5380% → 76%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 12 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
81.5%
Bowling Green Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Joseph Sipp Jr.) to the BGSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
82.6%
Haynes King sacked by Billie Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the BGSU 25Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
79.3%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Haynes King) to the BGSU 43Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 32
OPP 43
0
76.2%
David Shanahan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2724% → 42%
GTDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 62 yds · 3:0860% → 56%
Q3 11:27
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+8
59.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 8 yds to the GT 29Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+9
59.1%
KING, Haynes pass to the right incomplete intended for RUTHERFORD, Malik thrown to the GT38. PENALTY BG Pass Interference on SIPP JR., Joseph enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the GT38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
61.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 24 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
62.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 15 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD12 plays · 86 yds · 5:0645% → 79%
Q3 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-16
55.9%
BAZELAK, Connor pass up the middle complete for 16 yards to IBRAHIM, Abdul-Fatai caught at the BG31 and advanced to the BG33 (KING, Jaylon). PENALTY BG Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the BG17 to the BG8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+10
56.1%
BAZELAK, Connor pass short up the middle incomplete intended for HILIARE, Odieu thrown to the BG25. PENALTY GT Holding on DANIELS, Omar enforced 10 yards from the BG22 to the BG32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
53.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 23 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
51.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 28 yds to the GT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16INT TD2 plays · 19 yds · 0:3928% → 10%
GTDrive 17TD8 plays · 81 yds · 1:5810% → 21%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
9.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
50
+16
10.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+13
10.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 13 yds to the BGSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
21.4%
Malik Rutherford 15 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3789% → 90%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
11.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 4 yds to the BGSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19INT5 plays · 59 yds · 1:1113% → 12%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
12.6%
Bowling Green Penalty, Targeting on LORFILS, Darius enforced (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
50
+18
13.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 18 yds to the BGSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
14.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 13 yds to the BGSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 60 yds · 8:1191% → 98%
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+15
9.1%
QB Keeper BAZELAK, Connor rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the BG3 (BIGGERS, Zeek;KENNARD, Kyle). PENALTY GT Face mask on BIGGERS, Zeek enforced 15 yards from the BG5 to the BG20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
7.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 4 yds to the BGSU 43Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
7.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 4 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+15
3.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 15 yds to the GT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-10
3.5%
KEITH, Ta'ron rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the GT20 (POWELL-LEE, Clayton). PENALTY BG Holding on FATUKASI, Tunde enforced 10 yards from the GT32 to the GT42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD10 plays · 65 yds · 2:261% → 5%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 10 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
1.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 8 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
1.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
1.5%
Haynes King sacked by Adrian Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 31Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+15
1.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Dontae Smith for 15 yds to the BGSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 16 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · -4 yds · 1:3497% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:13
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
-30.1
TD · Q3 2:28
Deshawn Jones Jr. 45 Yd Interception Return (Alan Anaya Kick)
-18.3
TD · Q3 11:33
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
-15.2