2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · N. Frazier Run For Two-point Conversion
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 1:01: Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +48.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +39.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Haynes King run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — GT win probability +31.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UGA win probability +56.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Two-Point Conversion failed — GT win probability +50.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:38GT 4th & 5 at UGA 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call14.2%84% to makePunt13.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:46UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 27, down 3Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:43GT 4th & 1 at UGA 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.4%71% to convertField goal16.2%−0.266% to makePunt15.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:06UGA 4th & 3 at GT 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.4%53% to convertField goal82.1%−0.442% to makePunt81.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:05UGA 4th & 1 at GT 14, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.4%71% to convertField goal80.9%−0.584% to makePunt79.2%−2.3average punt
- Q2 10:09GT 4th & 4 at UGA 7, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snapGo for it22.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call22.0%−0.391% to makePunt18.6%−3.7average punt
- Q2 8:37UGA 4th & 18 at UGA 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it74.7%−2.012% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q3 14:04UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it43.9%−0.748% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%average punt
- Q3 12:32GT 4th & 5 at GT 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it58.4%−1.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q3 4:02GT 4th & 3 at UGA 37, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.3%53% to convertField goal59.7%−2.540% to makePunt59.4%−2.9average punt
- Q4 14:17GT 4th & 6 at UGA 6, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snapGo for it68.3%−0.531% to convertField goalTheir call68.8%91% to makePunt57.2%−11.6average punt
- Q4 0:04GT 4th & 1 at UGA 46, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 53.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.4%−1.470% to convertField goal54.8%23% to makePunt52.6%−2.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 4:40GT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30GT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.2%97% to makeGo for two53.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 9:53UGA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick50.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call50.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:18UGA Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.1%97% to makeGo for two22.4%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 5:37GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−1.045% to convert
- Q4 3:39UGA Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.4%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−1.945% to convert
- Q4 1:01UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−4.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1FG10 plays · 61 yds · 4:2012% → 14%
UGADrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3587% → 86%
Q1 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Brett Thorson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 48 yds · 3:3414% → 16%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
86.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4DOWNS12 plays · 60 yds · 5:3085% → 83%
GTDrive 5MISSED FG11 plays · 79 yds · 4:5118% → 21%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
81.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Ryland Goede for 25 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the UGA 24Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+11
78.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 11 yds to the UGA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2680% → 78%
GTDrive 7TD9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4722% → 33%
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+18
76.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 18 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
75.0%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the UGA 40 for a 1ST down Georgia Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+16
74.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 16 yds to the UGA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FUMBLE6 plays · 38 yds · 1:3267% → 68%
GTDrive 9TD12 plays · 63 yds · 2:1134% → 65%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
60.9%
Haynes King sacked by Smael Mondon Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 37Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
61.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 15 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+16
56.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the UGA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 4 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 0:2550% → 53%
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
48.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Roderick Robinson II for 13 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
51.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 10 yds to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
52.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 11 yds to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5047% → 45%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Nate Frazier for 6 yds to the UGA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2357% → 58%
Q3 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
42.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the GT 16Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+3
41.8%
David Shanahan punt for 38 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 3 yds to the UGA 49 Anthony Evans III fumbled, recovered by UGA Anthony Evans IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2644% → 53%
GTDrive 14FG21 plays · 90 yds · 10:3650% → 86%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+30
49.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 30 yds to the GT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
43.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the GT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
41.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
50
0
40.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Chad Alexander for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for no gain to the UGA 44Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
32.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 10 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
31.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 1 yd to the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5222% → 42%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
22.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Nate Frazier for 12 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+13
20.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 13 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
16.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 15 yds to the GT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 0
OPP 4
+2
13.5%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Daniels, Omar) 2 yards to the GATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UGA.Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 1 yd to the GT 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3674% → 96%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
26.1%
Jamal Haynes run for 8 yds to the GT 33 for a 1ST down Georgia Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+33
20.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 33 yds to the UGA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:537% → 33%
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Roderick Robinson II for 21 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
7.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 3 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
7.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 17 yds to the GT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
5.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 11 yds to the GT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
5.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 6 yds to the GT 17Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
33.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2785% → 88%
UGADrive 19TD6 plays · 32 yds · 0:5926% → 69%
GTDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 0:4648% → 53%
UGADrive 21END OF GAME2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
62.3%
Carson Beck sacked by Makius Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the UGA 42 Carson Beck fumbled, forced by Makius Scott, recovered by UGA Tate Ratledge , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 82%
GTDrive 23TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
80.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 14 yds to the UGA 16 Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 14 yds to the UGA 16 Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
41.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
UGADrive 25TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27Uncategorized2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 28Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 29TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 30Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 31Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 32TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 33Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 34Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 35TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
GTDrive 36TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 37Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+72
TD · OT 0:00
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+56.3
TD · OT 0:00
Two-Point Conversion failed
-50.1